California U.S. Senate Race

Race of the Day

August 5, 2006

94 Days Until Election Day

California U.S. Senate


Status: Democrat Incumbent

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

The contest to represent the most populous state in the U.S. Senate will not be much of a contest at all in this heavily Democrat state, which is especially so at the federal level.

Since her first very narrow reelection to the U.S. Senate in the strong Republican year of 1994, Democrat incumbent Dianne Feinstein has been an immensely successful public figure who has been asked since then on several occasions to run for Governor of her state (as she did unsuccessfully in 1990) and she has also been mentioned in the past as a Vice Presidential contender. Feinstein has staked out such a strong political identity for herself, largely by compiling a fairly liberal voting record, but also going her own way on such issues as support for the death penalty. She is seen as less ideological and a lot less divisive than the fellow Bay Area Jewish Democrat woman she was elected to the U.S. Senate with on the very same day in 1992. In fact, Feinstein and Barbara Boxer have apparently never really been that great of pals.

Considering that less formidable Boxer was reelected to the Senate from California in 2004, against a credible opponent, signified that there would be little hope for any Republican to topple Feinstein and a slew of potentially strong opponents passed on this race. There was some hope that Republicans might be able to field a self-financing millionaire business person of some sort to take on this mission and fund it themselves, but that has not come to pass either.

The only somewhat credible to candidate to enter the race was ex-State Senator Dick Mountjoy, a staunch conservative who most recently had placed third in a GOP primary for Lt. Governor. Mountjoy will get credit from Republican loyalists for taking on this mission and will receive attention throughout the state in what is likely his final campaign, but he simply has no chance to compete with Feinstein.

While Feinstein will win easily, it might be worth paying attention to the issue of immigration in this state that shares a border with Mexico. If Mountjoy has the ability to make up any sort of ground against Feinstein, it would probably be on that single issue. However, California Republicans powers than be, such as Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who takes a more balanced approach to the issue, would be reluctant to see that issue be as much in the forefront, as the immigration issue has successfully been used against Republicans in the Golden State before as they fared very poorly within the Hispanic community. For his part, the Governor has been somewhat non-committal as to whom he supports in the U.S. Senate race.

This should by all accounts be perhaps the biggest U.S. Senate landslide in California history in favor of Feinstein. It would not be unthinkable to see her carry every county in the state, although some sparsely populated rural areas might stick with the Republican nominee.
One thing to look out for though is to see if Dick Mountjoy has surprising strength among the Adult Entertainment industry workforce in the San Fernando Valley.

Mountjoy campaign link:

http://www.mountjoyforsenate.com/


2006 Senate race predicted thus far: 1 D, 1 RPredicted post-election Senate balance of power thus far: 28 D, 41 R