Almost Final U.S. House Recap and Updates

 3 Days Until Election Day

I have mostly been focused on the dynamics of the Presidential polling, so I do not know if there is anything jumping out at me in regards to any of my 435 predictions. I also do not really feel like doing all sorts of further research into the races I have as Tossups. Perhaps, I might do a bit of that on Monday for my "Final Predictions."

220 D (131 Safe, 44 Likely, 29 Leans, 16 Tossup)

215 R (121 Safe, 57 Likely, 22 Leans, 15 Tossup)

 

DEMOCRAT NET GAIN OF SIX SEATS 

If I were to somehow get everything right, Democrats would win a majority with just about as small of a margin as Republicans currently have. My instinct is that they will win a few additional seats than six, but anything over 15 would surprise me. I do think it is best for America is the House goes Democrat if for nothing else than to not try to do anything disgustingly un-Constitutional on January 6, 2025. Of course, this should be the expectation for all of us regardless of which party wins the Presidency. I also hope the Senate has a narrow Republican majority with a mainstream Majority Leader, who can hopefully help make the Party Grand Again, while also preventing the government from going too far left. However, the main objective for the future of America is that Donald Trump lose and that we be rid of him politically once and for all.

As it relates to all the House races, Presidential coattails or political drags, as the case may be, will play a role in what remains in the amount of competitive districts. Much remains unknown about polling this cycle, so it is very possible that one Presidential candidate does a good deal better than the polls suggest and thus the House is won alongside them in a fairly recognizable matter. There may also be recounts and lawsuits galore in races up and down the ballot across the country and we do not know for some time.

Every two years, I wind up being surprised at how good my predictions for House races wind up. I compare them to the race by race results from all the "professional pundits", and I always do at least as well as them if not better by two to three races in a couple of cycles. It would be nice to keep that up again although I always feel that one election I may just wind up off by a lot.

My past U.S. House prediction record:

(I was wondering why I only had 434 races for 2018 and had to recall that there was a botched election in North Carolina that never got certified.)

2006: 416-19 (96%)
2008: 418-17 (96%)
2010: 414-21 (95%)
2012: 415-20 (95%)
2014: 426-9 (98%)

2016: 429-6 (99%)

2018: 419-15 (97%)

2020: 415-20 (95%)

2022: 420-15 (97%)