Almost Final U.S. Senate Recap and Updates

 4 Days Until Election Day

AZ- Leans D

CA- Safe D 
(Regular and Special)

CT- Safe D

DE- Safe D

FL- Leans R

HI- Safe D

IN- Likely R

ME- Safe D/Safe King

MD- Leans D

MA- Safe D

MI- Tossup (D)

MN- Safe D

MS- Safe R

MO- Likely R

MT- Leans R

NE A- Leans R

NE B- Safe R

NV- Leans D

NJ- Likely D

NM- Likely D

NY- Safe D

ND- Safe R

OH- Tossup (D)

PA- Tossup (D)- change from Leans D

RI- Safe D

TN- Safe R

TX- Tossup (R)

UT- Safe R

VT- Safe D

VA- Likely D

WA- Likely D

WV- Safe R

WI- Tossup (D) change from Leans D

WY- Safe R

49 Democrats (28 Holdover, 10 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)

51 Republicans (38 Holdover, 7 Safe, 2 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Republican net gain of 2 seats

 

There is a lot to consider here but I am sticking with my previous predictions, although there are so many varying polls in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that I have to have them join Michigan in being Tossups. Back to those in a bit.

I am still saying Texas is a Tossup but I would not at all be surprised if the end result winds up being something closer to Leans R. In the regular Nebraska election, I do not think it will truly come down to being a Tossup, although it is surprisingly possible. 

Also, I am keeping Arizona and Nevada as Leans D although I think it is fair to assume those races are tightening a bit simply because while there will be some ticket splitting down the ballot after the Presidential race, it is hard to imagine there will be tons of it. I believe Trump can win those states while the Democrats manage to hang on.

I think Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are a bit of a different story. I think whichever Presidential candidate wins the state will also see the Senate nominee of the same party win. These are just very nationalized races. Over the summer, I would not have thought the Republicans would wind up being as competitive in these states as they are. Some polls show the Democrats with a lead, so I still think they are slight favorites, but until we know how the overall polling quality winds up this cycle, I think I have to consider them Tossups.

 

There is a strong case to be made for Maryland being Likely Democrat instead of Leans, but there is at least one poll showing that maybe it will not be a blowout. Perhaps, I am being too stubborn because Larry Hogan is easily my favorite Senate candidate this cycle, but he is not going to win a federal race in Maryland. I am also going to be a bit stubborn and keep Minnesota as Safe Democrat instead of Likely. The national environment in even quasi-competitive states is very tribalist, but it is hard to even fathom that a normal person in that state will wind up voting for the particular Republican nominee.

Then, there is Ohio. Trump will almost certainly win it. Can Sherrod Brown hang on? Now, I am saying yes, barely, but this is the one I would probably predict wrong first. If Republicans had a better candidate, this might look more like the Montana race right now.

All of this means that whatever happens at the House level and between Trump and Harris, Republicans look very poised to win a Senate majority, and perhaps one with a few seats to spare. They may have a tougher road in 2026 in defending a majority, but the 2024 calendar and other circumstances wound uip working in their favor.

It feels weird to say it, because a lot of these Republicans deserve to lose by virtue of their MAGA associations. However, for the good of the country, I do hope Republicans control the Senate, at least by a small margin. This will put the necessary check and balance on the Harris Administration to keep them from going too far on some of the left-wing wishlist. Divided government is a good thing. Clearly, I want Harris to beat Trump. That is priority number one and means a whole lot more to me than any of these Senate races or even the overall balance of power. I also think it will be best if Democrats control the House by a very small margin. I will update those predictions tomorrow.

My past U.S. Senate prediction record:

 

2006: 31-2 (94%)
2008: 34-1 (97%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 28-5 (85%)
2014: 36-0 (100%)
2016: 31-3 (91%)

2018: 33-2 (94%) 

2020: 33-2 (94%) 

2022: 33-2 (94%)