Almost Final Gubernatorial Recap and Updates

 5 Days Until Election Day

DE- Likely D

IN- Leans R

MO- Likely R

MT- Safe R

NH- Tossup (R)

NC- Likely D

ND- Safe R

UT- Likely R

VT- Likely R

WA- Leans D

WV- Likely R

Total with Predictions:

23 Democrats  (20 Holdover, 2 Likely, 1 Leans)

27 Republicans (19 Holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

No net change

 

I considered moving a couple of races a degree in the same direction but really do not see the point. None of these races, except New Hampshire, are that competitive. The action is not on the Gubernatorial side in non-midterms, and less this year than usual.

Living in the Chicago media market, I do see a lot of ads for the Indiana candidates. The Democrats are definitely pushing the abortion issue. There does not seem to be a lot of polling for the Hoosier State though. I think the Republican candidate will win, but I think that race has the potential to be closer than many expect, and will be an early topic of discussion on Tuesday, as polls close very early in Indiana.

My past Gubernatorial prediction record:

2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 9-2 (82%)
2014: 32-4 (89%)
2016: 9-3 (75%) 

2018: 35-1 (97%) 

2020: 11-0 (100%) 

2022: 34-2 (94%)