Washington Governor- Race of the Day

Washington Governor

36 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Open

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Leans Democrat

Gubernatorial contests in the Pacific Northwest have proven to be very frustrating to Republicans. Over the past couple of decades, the party has fallen short in several opportunities seen as promising in Oregon and Washington. This is particularly true in the latter state, which has not elected a Republican as its chief executive since 1980. Even an apparent victory in 2004 was overturn sometime after the election after late votes were found for the Democrat. Four years ago, the race in Washington was not that close as the Republican candidate was a little known MAGA type. This cycle though, the party has once again nominated a moderate Republican, who with a past history of political success, had long been seen as a great statewide option, and who is now running for statewide office for the first time.

Democrat Jay Inslee was allowed to seek a fourth term as Governor but has decided to step aside after this term. Four years ago, he won a third term after exiting a Presidential primary campaign, focused on environmental issues, that gathered little traction. With the incumbent not running, this opened up an opportunity for several Democrats. Washington has a primary system, like which exists in California, in which all candidates run in the same August primary, and then the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to November. This is leading many political observers to believe it helps them more easily determine how the statewide vote in Washington will go in November.

For Democrats, the early frontrunner became Bob Ferguson, a bookish looking mountain climber and "chess master" who is finishing up his third term as Attorney General. Oddly enough, at the filing deadlines, two other Bob Fergusons, who were completely unknown, filed to run for Governor as Democrats and rumors of dirty tricks and who might be behind them abounded. Soon enough though, both additional Bob Fergusons, whose candidacies faced legal scrutiny, withdrew. Before that though, Hillary Franz, the statewide elected Public Lands Commissioner, withdrew her candidacy for Governor, when an open U.S. House seat emerged. This plan to win a more electable office did not work out for Franz though after she finished third in the primary and was eliminated. The one main Democrat opponent for Ferguson wound up being State Senator Mark Mullet, who ran as a more moderate alternative.

As was the case with Democrats, Independents, and third party candidates, a bunch of Republicans also filed to run for Governor. One of them, physician Raul Garcia, who had finished back in the primary pack in 2020, withdrew from the race, and would instead become the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate instead. Garcia withdrew in order to get behind the candidacy of Dave Reichert, considered a top Republican recruit, whom at the age of 74 is making his first statewide run.

Reichert served in the military and had a long career in law enforcement. He spent 20 years perusing the Seattle area's "Green River Killer" which ultimately led to the identification and confession of the serial murderer, while Reichert was serving as the King County Sheriff. Capitalizing on this notoriety, Reichert ran for Congress in 2004 and captured a competitive open seat. The moderate Republican kept on being reelected to his swing district, which eventually became more Republican friendly, while Reichert passed up opportunities to run for Governor or U.S. Senate. The Congressman retired in 2018 and the suburban seat was captured by the Democrats and it looked like Reichert was finished with elective politics.

Many in the party were surprised but pleased when Reichert re-emerged to run for Governor this cycle. Most party leaders got behind him, but not all in the conservative grassroots were willing to accept the moderate. In fact, the official party nomination for Governor went to a fellow named Semi Bird. An African-American Trump supporter and veteran, Bird had been a local school board member and County Republican Chairman. Last year, while he was a Gubernatorial candidate, voters in the Richland School District recalled Bird and two other members, who had defied a statewide mask mandate in the district, during the Covid pandemic. Bird said he was proud of this rebuke and tried to capitalize on it for his campaign for Governor.

All of this led up to the August 6 primary, when Washington voters saw the names of 28 candidates on the ballot for Governor. Leading the field with 45 percent was top Democrat Ferguson, which must have pleased his supporters, considering how close he already was to 50 percent in a crowded field. Reichert was next with 27 percent and Bird took 11 percent. In fourth place, moderate Democrat Mullet (perhaps pro-business in the front and socially liberal in the back) took six percent. Despite the official Republican endorsement for Bird, it was not a surprise that November would feature a face-off between Ferguson and Reichert.

As mentioned, there has been a bit of a recent history in Washington of moderate Republicans being chosen to represent the party for Governor, only to see them fall short, in an increasingly Democrat state, during an election that takes place at the same time as the Presidential election. I do not think this year will prove to be different. However, Reichert is at least in theory, a strong candidate, and has been competitive in most polls. I will not be surprised though if I move this to "Likely Democrat" based on any polls that might come out in October.

Reichert was a Trump critic during his two years in Congress that overlapped with that Presidency.  Late in the 2016 campaign, he said he would not vote for him. During the 2024 primary campaign for Governor though, Reichert, as many other Republicans have done, tried to have it both ways on Trump. He had seemed to at least silently indicate that he would support Trump, even though he knew that such a stance would be politically harmful. Many were surprised when during the first general election debate, in which it was said that Reichert had a weak showing, the Republican nominee announced he would not vote for either Trump or Kamala Harris, and accused Ferguson with being obsessed with Trump. One can hardly blame the Democrat nominee for wanting to use Trump against a Republican in a state as liberal as Washington. In taking a stance that he will note support Trump, Reichert probably did the right thing politically, but he also now risks MAGA acolytes boycotting his Gubernatorial candidacy. The second debate held between the two candidates was said to have gone better for Reichert and the issue of Trump did not come up, which may have disappointed Democrats.

 

As the campaign enters the homestretch, Reichert has a difficult, but perhaps not impossible path to victory against a Democrat who might be seen as pretty far to the left and whose party has held the office for the past 44 years. No other Republican would even be close to competitive, but Reichert has to somehow hope to keep all of the Republican vote that went to the more conservative candidate and also to peel off whatever primary support there was for the more moderate Democrat who ran.

 

Considering the state's political history and the dynamics of national politics during a Presidential election in this blue state, it is probably not going to happen.

 

Governor races predicted thus far:

3 D (1 Likely, 2 Leans)

7 R (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predicted thus far:

23 Democrats (1 Likely, 2 Leans, 20 Holdover)

26 Republicans (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup, 19 Holdover)