Vermont Governor- Race of the Day

Vermont Governor

43 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Likely Republican

Gubernatorial elections in Vermont just seem to have a different feel that in other states. For one thing, it joins only neighboring New Hampshire in being the only state to elect a Governor every two years. Then, unless something has changed, the election could be decided, at least technically, by the State Legislature, if no candidate receives a majority of the vote. That it not at all likely to occur this year, but the Vermont legislature is heavily Democrat and in theory could allow for a candidate of that party to take office, even if they receive less votes. However, there seems to be an unwritten rule that if this situation were to occur, the candidate who received a plurality of the vote would get the nod, regardless of party.

All of this is a bit academic because the Green Mountain State is likely to reelect its popular incumbent Governor by a sizable margin. If this were virtually any state but Vermont, I would call this race as "Safe Republican." However, Vermont is so liberal, that I just find that impossible to do. It is pretty amazing that a Republican does so well there in this day and age, but that speaks to the political appeal of Phil Scott.

A moderate Republican, Scott has won statewide office every two years since being elected Lt. Governor in 2010. In 2016, he won the Governorship, even as he made it clear he would not be voting for Donald Trump, which was a popular option in the state. Since then, Scott, a former race car driver, has cruised to reelection by increasing margins against a transgender woman, a male pony-tailed socialist, and a bisexual female. In the last race in 2022, Scott took 71 percent of the vote. Maybe I should be calling this race "Safe." If I can find one October poll to confirm that hunch, I will do so.

Recent cycles have seen a coalition emerge in Vermont between the Democrats and the even further left Progressive party, and they have banded together to support candidates for statewide offices. This year, the winner of the Democrats' primary was Esther Charlestin, an African-American woman who had been a teacher and served as a Middlebury Town Selectwoman. Officially, the August primary results saw her take 46 percent of the vote. Vermont also seemingly counts the undervotes and overvotes as part of their totals in addition to write-ins. The Republican incumbent Governor even won 9 percent of the other party's write-in votes. Twenty-six percent of the count was undervotes, with the next closest human being Peter Duval, with 18 percent. He was a former Underhill Selectman who ran for Governor in 2022, first in the Republican primary, and then as an Independent in the general election.

For his part, Scott took 93 percent in the Republican primary, without an actual opponent. All of this is pretty impressive considering that MAGA acolytes pretty much run dominate the Republican Party in every state. After not supporting Trump in 2016, it was not a surprise that the Governor did not in 2020 either. On Election Day, he announced he had voted for Joe Biden. After January 6, 2021, Scott was one of the few Republican elected officials to call for Trump to be removed from office. Leading into this election, there was a lot of speculation on if Scott would seek another term. If he had not, it would pretty much be a given that the office would go to a Democrat, and former Governor Howard Dean appeared to be making steps towards a run. Ultimately, Scott would run again and Dean would not, effectively ending the competition. Not surprisingly, Scott has announced he will once again not support the Presidential nominee of his party. Earlier in the summer, he said he would not vote for Joe Biden again. Now, he seems to be open towards a late decision to vote for Kamala Harris, although he has not committed to doing so yet.

The bottom line is that even most Democrats seem to like Governor Scott and the job he is doing. This goes a long way towards the axion that "all politics is local", especially in a small state like Vermont. While some may never be able to vote for him because he has an R next to his name, they seem to be very much in the minority. The Governor's harshest opponents are likely MAGA folks who consider him a RINO heretic. However, if they want to prevent their state from electing a very far-left Democrat, they really are left with no choice but to vote for him too.

Governor races predicted thus far:

2 D (1 Likely, 1 Leans)

7 R (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predicted thus far:

22 Democrats (1 Likely, 1 Leans, 20 Holdover)

26 Republicans (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup, 19 Holdover)