Tennessee U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

Tennessee U.S. Senate

53 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Likely Republican

In regards to classification, there are several Senate contests that are on the cusp between two rankings, and this is one of them. It would be the upset of the year if the Democrat won in the Volunteer State. There is absolutely no indication that it might happen, but the party's nominee has been able to raise some money and could have a motivated base of voters to turn out, even if the state is ignored in the Presidential campaign.

Republican Masha Blackburn is seeking her second U.S. Senate term. A firebrand conservative, she is a contrast to a long line of more establishment type Republicans who have gone to the Senate from Tennessee, let alone the Democrats who used to dominate the state's politics. Before being elected to the Senate, Blacburn spent sixteen years in the U.S. House, and four years as a State Senator. At one point, she had the reputation as an optimistic, telegenic Southern politico but in the MAGA era, has increasingly embraced sharp partisan elbows and harsh rhetoric. In a 2018 open Senate race, she defeated a former Democrat Governor, easily the best possible recruit that party could have had, by double digits. This was despite the fact that Blackburn (who has some experience in the business side of the music industry) saw her opponent endorsed by Tennessee resident Taylor Swift. Six years later, Swift is far more "powerful" than ever before, though I am not sure if she still votes in the state, but probably would not be enough of a force to dislodge Blackburn.

In the beginning of August, Blackburn took 89 percent against a little known much younger male candidate, who seemed to campaign on the theory that the incumbent was not MAGA enough. The same day, four Democrat women competed for their party's Senate nomination. Only two of them though reached double digits and the winner, as expected, was the one white candidate in the field.  In second place, with 22 percent was Marquita Bradshaw, an environmental activist from Memphis. In 2020, she had taken 35 as the party's Senate nominee for an open seat race, after having been a surprise primary victor.

 
Democrats have had a lot of completely non-competitive Senate nominees in recent cycles, so this year at least seems slightly different. The primary winner with 70 percent was Gloria Johnson, a State Representative from Knoxville. A former teacher and gun control activist, who is using her height as a political selling-point, Johnson made national political headlines in 2023, when after a school shooting in Tennessee, she and two colleagues led a protest on the floor of the State House. Both of her colleagues, young African-American men, who were freshmen in the body, were expelled by the Republican majority. Much was made of the fact that Johnson, an older white woman, was not expelled, by just a single vote. Some will say that it was because she was the one of the three who showed any sort of remorse over a violation of decorum, but Johnson stood with her colleagues and made clear she believed it was an issue of race. Both of those black Democrats were quickly voted back into office by their constituents, proving the entire exercise a ridiculous waste of time and money on behalf of Republicans in the state.

Johnson used this exposure to launch a somewhat quixotic bid for the Senate against Blackburn, but she has been able to raise some money from national sources and Democrats believe she is a credible and articulate advocate of the party's message. Many popular female country musicians have lent their voices to her campaign, although on the pop side, Taylor Swift has seemingly yet to say anything publicly. State law is allowing Johnson to seek reelection to her State House seat at the same time she is taking part in Tennessee's first all female U.S. Senate general election. Johnson is unopposed in her own reelection race.

There is not a ton of polling on this race, but obviously Blackburn is heavily favored. It is also true that the incumbent may be too divisive for many in the state. I would say I am close to calling this race "Safe Republican" but think that if nothing else, Johnson has a chance to hold the incumbent under 60 percent.

 

 

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

17 D  (8 Safe, 3 Likely,  4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 9 R   (4 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

45 Democrats (28 Holdover, 8 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

47 Republicans (38 Holdover, 4 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)