Pennsylvania U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate

58 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Leans Democrat

No state will be watched more closely in regards to this year's Presidential election. The Keystone State also has a very competitive contest for a Senate seat, which, as is the case with many others this cycle, could determine which party controls the Senate and impacts the agenda of the next President.

Two years ago, the Commonwealth saw an open Republican Senate seat go to the Democrat by five points, even as some polls, and conventional wisdom, seemed to indicate that the Democrat candidate, who was recovering from a stroke, and was quite impaired in a late-season debate, was an underdog. This time, both party's nominees seemingly have less baggage than the 2022 candidates, but one of them is an incumbent, and this will be a big test as to the power of incumbency.

Democrat Bob Casey Jr. is the scion of a famous political family from Scranton. His father ran three times for Governor before finally winning the office. The younger Casey himself won two statewide elections as Auditor, before trying to run for Governor in 2002. In that primary, he was solidly defeated by a more liberal candidate from Philadelphia. Two years later, Casey won another election as State Treasurer and then almost immediately began a campaign for U.S. Senate. Democrats highly recruited Casey in 2006 to run against staunch social conservative Rick Santorum. Casey was seen as the kind of old-school populist Democrat, with socially conservative views on issues like abortion, that could win back voters that had defected in previous races to Santorum. While some on the left grumbled, the party knew what they were doing. It was a strong year for Democrats nationally and Casey unseated Santorum in a landslide.

In the Senate, Casey has been far more of a party regular, including on issues like abortion, than any sort of Blue Dog Democrat, but he has remained popular at home. Republicans targeted him for defeat in both 2012 and 2018, but he comfortably won both races, In the latter contest, Casey easily turned back the challenge of a Trump-backing Congressman by 13 points, showing his political strength in a state that the then President had won two years earlier. Now in his mid 60s, the Senator has recently undergone treatment for prostate cancer, but Democrats were more than relieved when he announced he would run again in 2024. The incumbent did not face a primary challenge in April.

Two years ago, Republicans had a very competitive, multi-candidate field and the candidate who placed second, by fewer than a thousand votes, is now the nominee in 2024. Many believe that Dave McCormick, an Army veteran and hedgefund  CEO would have won that general election, but Donald Trump instead put his backing behind celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, who was well known from television, and Oz barely outpolled McCormick. In November, Oz, who had never lived in Pennsylvania, lost to the Democrat, and was seemingly no longer thought of as a future Senator.

This time, McCormick locked down the support of Trump early on. The candidate had served in the Treasury Department under President George W. Bush, but was looked over by Trump to become Secretary of the Treasury. McCormick turned down another administration job offer, but his wife served as a high level national security advisor to Trump.

While McCormick has considerable ties to Pennsylvania, he had been a resident of Connecticut and that was used against him in the 2022 Republican primary by New Jersey resident Oz. He was also accused in that primary of outsourcing jobs to China as a financial executive. Casey and the Democrats are not surprisingly now using the same line of attack. Like many establishment Republicans, turned MAGA backers, McCormick has sometimes found himself in an odd position of not wanting to turn off Trump acolytes in some parts of the state while still trying to win more moderate suburban voters. The candidate was present and apparently planning to speak at the July Pennsylvania rally where a would be assassin shot at Trump and McCormick received much free media due to that experience.

This contest in Pennsylvania is drawing a lot of parallels to the one in next door Ohio where another Democrat Senator first elected in 2006 is trying to win a fourth term. While McCormick might perhaps be a more attractive candidate than his counterpart in Ohio,  Casey is probably in somewhat better shape overall. Pennsylvania is simply more favorable to Democrats than Ohio currently is.

Thus far, the polls have shown Casey ahead of McCormick, by double digits in some, and much closer in others. The truth is probably somewhere in between. Pennsylvania is probably a must win state for Kamala Harris (and potentially a source of regret for not picking the state's governor as her running-mate if things go wrong), but in regards to the Senate race, everyone will be looking at ticket-splitters. Both nominees, who are scheduled to debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday, are likely to make many return trips. In some parts of the state, both Senate nominees will want to be viewed as closer to the Presidential candidate than others. Casey is likely to win more Trump voters though than McCormick is to win Harris voters, although there will be some of those too. Casey, who at one point was considered a Pro-Life Democrat, is heavily focusing on the abortion issue to turn out pro-choice voters against McCormick.

It is hard to call this race a Tossup at this point, although it is quite feasible it could look like one on Election Day. The last midterm election saw a lot of disappointment Republicans in Pennsylvania though as upscale suburban voters, who used to vote Republican, seem very down on Trump. Casey likely runs ahead of Harris and wins perhaps his closest Senate victory yet.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

16 D  (7 Safe, 3 Likely,  4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 8 R   (4 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

44 Democrats (28 Holdover, 7 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

46 Republicans (38 Holdover, 4 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)