Ohio U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 Ohio U.S. Senate

60 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Tossup (D)

 

Once the most ultra-sough after prize on the electoral map, Ohio has become fairly red over the past decade, and nary a Democrat can win statewide anymore. Two years ago, an open Senate seat saw Republicans playing with some fire as a less than stellar nominee was held to a relatively less than formidable victory against a populist Democrat. Now, Republicans have once again put up a candidate that could cost them a win, this time running against the one Democrat who has withstood the red tide before.

Sherrod Brown has held elective office nearly his entire adult life. The Democrat was first elected 50 years ago to the state legislature and just before his 30th birthday in 1982, became Ohio's Secretary of State. Brown's one defeat came in 1990, when he attempted to win a third term in that office, but just two years later, he was off to Capitol Hill as a Congressman and has not left since. After 14 years in the U.S. House, the rumpled anti-trade populist Democrat easily defeated a Republican incumbent U.S.Senator in a strong year for his party. Targeted by the GOP, Brown won reelection in 2012 by six points (slightly above the margin of the amount taken by an Independent), and by 2018, when Donald Trump had taken over the Republican, the incumbent beat a Trump acolyte by seven points. Some have thought Brown would be the kind of ideal Rust Belt Democrat who could bring voters back to the party on a national ticket, but has not seemed to have much thought to those sort of ambitions. Now, as the Senator seeks a fourth term, Democrats can be grateful he is running again, because it is doubtful anyone else in his party could hold the seat.

While Brown was unopposed in a March primary, Republicans held a competitive three way primary to pick a candidate to oppose him. That was still much smaller than the 2022 primary the party held for the other seat. In that race, a wealthy former car dealership owner, who had never run for elective office before, dropped out before the primary and put his support behind the candidate backed by Trump. JD Vance won that primary and in somewhat of a struggle, the open seat general election against Tim Ryan in November  Now, as the controversial Vance might be on his way to the Vice Presidency, Moreno is running again for the Senate. This time, he was the once who received Trump's primary endorsement which proved huge in March. Still, he seems to be at least a slight underdog in a state where Trump and Vance are expected to win without too much of a fight and Republicans should probably be asking themselves why they have chosen to nominate Senate candidates who are making things so difficult.

Moreno is a 57 year old Latino who at first glance looks much more like a 47 year old white dude. His background is somewhat unusual for an Ohio Republican political figure. Born to a prominent political family in Colombia, Moreno and his family moved to Florida when he was five. At the age of 18, he became an American citizen and embarked on a career in business that eventually took him to Ohio just under 20 years ago. There, he was a highly successful Mercedes-Benz dealer before moving into the nebulous blockchain industry. 

In 2022, Moreno was one of a bevy of Republicans who wanted to become a U.S. Senator, but seemed to be somewhat in the back of the pack. He was convinced by Trump to drop out and support Vance, who also appeared to be headed to a primary defeat before the MAGA endorsement. That turned out to be a wise move politically. Like Vance though, Moreno was not always a fan of Donald Trump. In 2016, he referred to the Presidential candidate as a "maniac" and a "lunatic" and like Vance, wrote in a candidate for President in November. Even in 2019, when Trump was President,  Moreno said he still would not support his candidacy. However, once the political candidacy bug hit, the Republican Moreno changed his tune on DJT and now firmly embraces the maniacal lunatic.

As mentioned, that paid off, because not only did Moreno win the primary, but he did so with just more than 50 percent, which was more than expected and what the polls had been predicting. Before the vote, there was a question whether Moreno could benefit from a split between his two more establishment opponents, or if one of the opponents could benefit from a split MAGA vote that included Moreno. Ultimately, Moreno won by enough that it did not matter. Finishing in second with 33 percent was State Senator Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians MLB team. Dolan was also a candidate in 2022, where he finished third out of seven, and was the one candidate who did not run as a Trump Republican.  Dolan was far more in the mold of the Ohio Republicans who had won statewide elections before Trump came along. Still though, he chose not to go full Never Trump, either in 2022 or 2024, and pointed out that he had voted for Trump to be President (which would differentiate him from Moreno and Vance, at least as it relates to 2016.) A late entry to the 2024 field was the recently Secretary of State and Army veteran Frank LaRose. Not long ago, LaRose was also considered a traditional establishment Republican, but as a Senate candidate, he moved sharply to embrace Trump, even as the former President threw his support to Moreno. He received just 17 percent in the Senate primary though, indicating that a lot his supporters came to the late decision to go with Moreno instead.

Just before the primary, there were some embarrassing questions raised for the Moreno campaign. Somehow, an old online profile from 2008 surfaced in which the future candidate was seeking out shall we say, "male companionship."  Soon though, a former intern (intern for a car dealership owner?) took responsibility for creating the profile a decade and a half earlier, saying he was merely pulling a juvenile prank on his boss. Moreno, had once been supportive of some LGBT issues and had talked about having a gay son. As a Senate candidate, he has taken a more right-wing approach on some of those issues.

Then, there is also the issue that Moreno happens to be the father in law of freshman Ohio Republican Congressman Max Miller, at least for now. Two years ago, Miller, who had previously been accused of domestic violence by a former girlfriend and one-time high level Trump staffer, married Moreno's daughter and they have an infant daughter together. Just last week, the Congressman filed for divorce from his wife and late breaking developments have this divorce and custody battle looking ugly, as Moreno's daughter is accusing her estranged husband of drug abuse. This has to be extremely awkward for Bernie Moreno as he seeks election on the same ticket as the man his daughter is divorcing, and also seeking to serve with him in Ohio's Congressional delegation.

In looking towards the election itself, I think it is fair to say that Dolan and probably LaRose as well, might be leading Senator Brown in the polls at this point. Indeed, the entire balance of power might come down to the Ohio Senate seat. However, Republicans have nominated Moreno, and while he is very much in contention, he will lose a large chunk of ticket splitters to Brown. Indeed many of the Ohio voters who have strongly supported Trump from the get-go are the kind of blue-collar, anti-trade or pro-union Democrats who have made up the base of Brown's political support. The Republican is trying to sidestep issues like abortion to focus on the economy and inflation.

All polls have shown Brown ahead of Moreno, from anywhere from a couple of points to close to double digits. Eventually, a  Republican affiliated poll will come out that will show Moreno narrowly ahead and perhaps by design that will be an attempt to change the narrative and gin up campaign cash for the already wealthy Moreno. The truth of the matter is that if Trump defeats Kamala Harris by a landslide in Ohio, then Moreno will probably manage to get enough votes to unseat Brown. That is why one has to look at this race as a Tossup. The most recent polls have been very close and Moreno won the primary by a larger than expected margin. At the same time, Vance, running as a MAGA mouthpiece only won an open seat in 2022 by six points, when other Republicans took the state that year by far more. Brown is a more proven winner than Democrat Tim Ryan, who had never run statewide before.

At this point, I think Moreno is a weak enough candidate to manage to fall short in a winnable race. In a month or so, I might be willing to say that this race Leans Democrat, but for now, I have to give Brown just a slight advantage. In many ways, this is similar to the contest in Montana, in which a Democrat incumbent, who has beaten the odds before has hung on. That race though has a lot of polling data showing it starting to slip away from the Democrat, while in Ohio, Brown and his unique political brand is seemingly manage to immunize him from the political party he is running under.

 

There can be a lot of irony in politics. Dolan is far less of a Trump candidate than Moreno is, but would lose less ticket splitters on the other side of the current Republican divide, In some ways, MAGA voters might find Brown and Moreno to be too similar on some of the issues most important to them and will stick with who they know, while suburban voters will find the Republican too far to the right on other issues (which also finding Brown more acceptable than Harris/Walz) If Moreno falls short.

If Brown wins another term, this will be worth studying in a Political Science class and Republicans should be left wishing they went with Dolan.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

15 D  (7 Safe, 3 Likely,  3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 8 R   (4 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

43 Democrats (28 Holdover, 7 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

46 Republicans (38 Holdover, 4 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)