North Carolina Governor- Race of the Day

North Carolina Governor

65 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

Considering all the success that North Carolina Republicans have had over the past couple of generations, it is somewhat remarkable to consider the fact that the party has one just one out of the last eight Gubernatorial elections going back to the beginning of the 1990s. Despite that, an open contest this year would seem to have a lot of reasons to favor a Republican pickup. However, the party has nominated an extremely controversial and pragmatic candidate that appeared to be very much in the game earlier on, but now appears to clearly have fallen behind as more about his background and beliefs become known. The Tar Heel State is still very much a battleground in this year's Presidential election, but the fallout from this race could have an impact there also.

After eight years in office, Democrat Governor Roy Cooper is term-limited. He had achieved statewide political success as the Attorney General of North Carolina, but bided his time before he ran for the top job. With the help of split ticket voters, Cooper narrowly ousted a Republican incumbent in 2016, with the help of a Libertarian spoiler candidate, and then won by five points in 2020. Cooper was seen as the kind of Democrat with the proven ability to win in red states and when there was recent party turmoil for Democrats, some saw him as a potentially very strong Vice Presidential candidate for Kamala Harris, especially considering the must-win stakes of North Carolina for Donald Trump.. Cooper though would take his name out of the running saying it was not the right time. One reason might be that he did not want to campaign out of state, leaving the day to day duties of the Governorship to the separately elected Republican Lt. Governor, who also just happens to be the firebrand nominee for Governor this year. There seems to be some suggestion that Cooper may instead have his eye on a 2026 U.S.Senate bid, which might disappoint one outgoing Congressman, who in the wake of Republican led redistricting efforts, which should switch several U.S. House seats towards that party this year, had already announced his Senate candidacy,

For now though, the focus is on 2024.and way back in early March, Democrats choose Cooper's successor as Attorney General to succeed him as Governor. Josh Stein took 70 percent of the vote against four African-American opponents. This was more than enough to avoid a run-off. The closest of the competitors, who received 14 percent was Michael Morgan, who resigned from the State Supreme Court to run for Governor.  Stein, a former State Senator won two Attorney General elections with 50 percent of the vote, showing the extremely competitive nature of North Carolina state elections. Now, Stein is looking to become one of the few Jewish Governors ever elected in a southern state.

Having defeated African-American primary opponents, Stein now has to face an African-American general election opponent, as well as one who has been accused of anti-Semitism. Regardless of his racial background, Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson is a very large and imposing man. A former blue-collar furniture factor worker, Robinson had a meteoric political rise. He received notice from a video of him defending Second Amendment rights at a city council meeting. Bombastic and popular with MAGA conservatives, he won a crowded 2020 Republican primary for Lt. Governor with a bit more than the 30 percent required to avoid a runoff. Robinson then defeated a black female Democrat to be elected to the second highest office in North Carolina. He has continued to be extremely outspoken in that role and had has a very contentious relationship with Governor Cooper. The Lt. Governor has won plaudits by people such as Donald Trump who has referred to him as "Martin Luther King on steroids" and endorsed his candidacy for Governor.

Trump's support helped Robinson take 65 percent of the vote in the March Republican primary. His opponents claimed that he was too controversial, not suited for the job of Governor, and would put the party at risk of losing to Democrats, but the voters did not seem to care. The establishment vote split between State Treasurer Dale Fowell won won 19 percent and attorney and conservative activist Bill Graham (not to be confused with famous North Carolinian, the late Rev. Billy Graham) who took 16 percent. Before the primary, a former Congressman, withdrew from the Gubernatorial race to run for Congress instead, but then would also withdraw from that race to work for the Trump campaign. Now, Republican voters in North Carolina should certainly be left wondering if they nominated a toxic candidate.

To be certain, the life story of Robinson is an impressive one of overcoming poverty and domestic violence. His is the kind of story that conservatives would look to an embodiment of the American Dream and why black Americans should find a home in the Republican Party. However, Robinson has taken his brand of conservatism to places very much on the conspiratorial far-right. He is pretty much an open Christian Nationalist and has an extremely long record of Facebook posts where he rails against Jews and seems to minimize the Holocaust calling historical claims "hogwash." As a Gubernatorial candidate, Robinson disputes that he has denied the Holocaust or is anti-Jewish. He also has a long record of fiery denouncements of the LGBT community and of being very dismissive of the concept of feminism. An ardent opponent of abortion, Robinson has admitted in the past that his wife aborted their child, thirty years ago, and before they were married.

An extremely long accounting could be provided of Robinson's outrageously controversial statements, both in his Facebook era and continuing as Lt. Governor. One that has perhaps received the most notice occurred this summer, when already a Gubernatorial nominee, Robinson ranted at a church pulpit about "wicked" people and and said "some folks need killing."

 

One way or another, North Carolina will make history by either electing its first black Governor or first Jewish Governor. This is even a bigger deal as it relates to a state that was once part of the Confederacy. As it relates to this specific race, some voters on the fringes in both parties may have a hard time supporting the nominee of their party for bigoted reasons.

Politics aside, and I am sure there is much to find fault with as it relates to Josh Stein, I find it hard to believe that anybody could seriously consider electing a man such as Mark Robinson to be Governor. It is bad enough that he somehow already became Lt. Governor. Yet, he appears to be a competitive candidate because North Carolina is considered a conservative state and voters may be in the mood for change after having a Democrat as Governor for the last eight years. Robinson also might appeal to some traditionally Democrat voting African-Americans. After the primary, when some of his views were perhaps still more unknown, and before he made the "some folks need killing" remark, he appeared to be narrowly ahead of Stein in some polls. Democrats across America were right to be very worried about this race. More recently though, Stein has moved ahead of Robinson in the polls, and by double digits in some. The withdrawal of Joe Biden and replacement by Kamala Harris, a black candidate, might ironically hurt the chances of a black Republican. Several prominent Republicans, including one of North Carolina's sitting U.S. Senators, the most recent GOP Governor, and defeated primary candidate Dale Fowell have refused to endorse Robinson. Keeping in mind that a couple percent of the vote for the Libertarian nominee in 2016 probably delivered the Governorship to the Democrat (although that appears to have been more of a protest vote on the right), this time traditional Republican voters may be the ones who choose to instead vote for the Libertarian candidate or even the Constitution Party. Others may stay home altogether, and others may vote for the Democrat.

If I were a North Carolina voter, I would, without hesitation vote for Josh Stein. I am sure there would be plenty for me to oppose on a policy standpoint regarding how he would govern, but nothing can be taken for granted as it relates to the closeness of this race, even though conventional wisdom seems to be with the Democrat having gained the upper-hand. Still, the polls should be regarded with caution, and North Carolina voters have a responsibility to keep Mark Robinson from the Governorship or any position of authority.

Governor races predicted thus far:

2 D (1 Likely, 1 Leans)

4 R (2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predicted thus far:

22 Democrats (1 Likely, 1 Leans, 20 Holdover)

23 Republicans (2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup, 19 Holdover)