Rhode Island U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 Rhode Island U.S. Senate

54 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

While at times competitive in Gubernatorial contests, it has been a long time since Rhode Island has had a close U.S. Senate race. There is no reason to believe anything will be different this year in one of America's deepest blue states.

In 2006, Sheldon Whitehouse was one of several Democrats to defeat sitting Republican Senators. Since then, he has won two reelections with over 60 percent of the vote. The patrician Whitehouse has a reputation for being very partisan and very liberal. 

 

Despite some headlines about his stock tradings or discovered membership in an all-white country club, Whitehouse has never looked that vulnerable. This past Tuesday, the primary was held and the incumbent took 84 percent against an opponent who had put personal funds into the race to run television ads. This was several points better than Whitehouse's 2018 primary margin, where he was challenged from the left. This year, investment manager Michael Costa, a former Republican, seemed to run as more of generic, "time for a change" candidate. Over a year ago, the 2020 Republican Senate nominee dropped out of the race against Whitehouse.in which he was running as a Democrat, despite continuing to hold conservative views, to run unsuccessfully as a Democrat for a House seat in a special election

Donald Trump will likely run worse in Rhode Island than almost any other state, but there are pockets of support for MAGA like candidates among working-class white voters who likely used to identify as Democrats. Seemingly gone are the days where the Rhode Island GOP was dominated by moderates to even liberal Republicans such as the Chafees.  On paper, State Representative Patricia Morgan, a former Minority Leader seems like a credible candidate. In 2018, the financial advisor lost a Republican primary for Governor. This cycle, she won by 29 percent against IT professional and conservative activist Raymond McKay. This election is not on paper though, and the 74 year old Morgan has also appeared to be comfortable with siding with right-wingers on cultural issues.

In a different state at a different time, Whitehouse may have some serious vulnerabilities, but a Trump-backing challenger is not going to pose much of a threat in Rhode Island.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

17 D  (8 Safe, 3 Likely,  4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 8 R   (4 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

45 Democrats (28 Holdover, 8 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

46 Republicans (38 Holdover, 4 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)