Texas U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

Texas U.S.Senate

49 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

Democrats keep holding out hope they can flip the nation's second most populous state blue. They especially would like to unseat two term Republican Senator Ted Cruz. The fact remains though that not one Democrat has won a Lone Star statewide vote in 40 years. Texas has had many, many statewide elections since 1994, and Republicans have been victorious each time.

One of those contests was in 2012 when Cruz won an open Senate seat. The son of a Cuban refugee father and a white mother, Cruz had been the Solicitor General of Texas and was seen as an extremely intelligent, hard charging movement conservative. He defeated the establishment candidate in a Republican runoff for the Senate seat and then had little trouble that year against the Democrat. Cruz moved quickly to make a name for himself in the Senate, and collected enemies on both sides of the aisle. He did however receive much plaudits from conservative activists around the nation who were excited when he ran for President in the 2016 cycle. In that campaign, the unanticipated rise of Donald Trump created problems for Cruz. First, he tried to ally with the celebrity candidate, believing he would eventually fade and his support would go to Cruz. Then, when Cruz remained one of the last remaining obstacles for Trump, the Senator was turned on hard by his opponent, who nicknamed him "Lyin' Ted", inferred that he had some sort of secret damaging information about Cruz's highly successful wife, and implausibly stating, with the aid of the National Enquirer, that Cruz's politically active father had somehow been involved in the JFK assassination in 1963.

When defeating Trump proved impossible, Cruz suspended his campaign, but came to the 2016 Republican Convention, unwilling to offer an actual endorsement of the nominee. He told his supporter to "vote their conscience" and was practically booed off the stage by both Trump's original MAGA backers and by the Republican establishment he had co-opted. Trump predicted, that like others before him, Cruz would eventually come around and endorse him, and basically plead for forgiveness. That seems to be exactly what happened, as Texas Republicans started talking about a 2018 primary challenge to the Senator. Cruz decided his best path was to endorse Trump, perhaps not expecting he would actually win the White House.

Since that time, Cruz, still in his early 50s,  has grown a beard and put on some weight, and become even more of a lightning rod for the left. He has gone from calling Trump "utterly amoral" during the period of time they were feuding in the early 2016 primaries to becoming one of his chief defenders, in the Senate, and in the media. Cruz has also taken Trump's tact in being very provocative online against political opponents. In 2018, Cruz took 85 percent against four primary opponents, but then after a heated campaign was held to just a 51-48 victory against Congressman Beto O'Rourke, a far more competitive statewide race than Texas has become accustomed to. This is perhaps especially noteworthy because O'Rourke became not very well-liked either as a political candidate, despite gaining fans on the left. He used the exposure of his narrow loss (and weird profanity laced concession speech) to launch what has since been unsuccessful campaigns for President and Governor.

Cruz is now seeking a third term in the same cycle that Trump is running for President the third time. Most expect that the former President will defeat Kamala Harris in the state, but not in a complete landslide. It is anticipated that Cruz will have at least a somewhat closer race down the ballot. This March, he took 88 percent against two primary opponents. Moving on to the general election, he has to contend with such matters as having "fled" to Cancun during a period in the winter in which electricity was lost in parts of Texas and many of his constituents were dealing with cold.

The Democrat running against Cruz this cycle does not seem to have the national star-power on the left that Beto O'Rourke had six years ago and that might mean less campaign cash, but it could also have other benefits. In the primary, Congressman Colin Allred took 59 percent of the vote, negating the need for a run-off election. This was impressive considering there were eight candidates on the ballot. The next three finishes were achieved by Hispanic candidates including second place finisher Roland Gutierrez, a State Senator who took 17 percent running as a more progressive option. No other primary candidate reached double digits.

Allred has an interesting backstory. Just 41, and apparently related to a man who had been Governor of Texas in the 1930s, the African-American candidate was raised by his white single mother. An athletic and academic star growing up, Allred played college football for the Baylor Bears and though he went undrafted in 2006, the Linebacker signed with the Tennessee Titans and played four seasons. After his NFL career ended, Allred went to law school and eventually served in the Obama Administration. In 2018, he defeated a longtime Republican incumbent Congressman in a swing district by a fairly impressive margin and then won reelection by a nearly identical margin two years later. By 2022, his district had been re-drawn to be more friendly to a Democrat (allowing Republicans to fare better in other districts) and after that victory, Allred started running for the Senate.

As noted, based on recent history, any Democrat is going to have a hard time winning statewide in Texas. This contest though between Cruz of Houston and Allred of Dallas could be one that gets some attention in the final weeks. Cruz is simply despised by his political opposition and there will be much motivation to oppose him. Many believe that Cruz still has a plan to run for President again one day, but from my perspective, he has so humiliated himself by his capitulation to Trump years ago now, that such a move has become his entire brand, to both sides, and when Trump die-hards eventually have to move on to someone else, they will find many more appealing options than Cruz.

The incumbent has led the challenger in every poll this cycle, which is not much of a surprise. While some Republican affiliated polls have Cruz over 50 percent, others show a much closer race, and perhaps close to a statistical dead-heat. If this race really does wind up doing down to the wire, much will be made of the profile of undecided voters and if there are Trump voters who might also be willing to vote for Allred. Even the presence of the Libertarian nominee, a longtime third party fixture in California races, now running these days in Texas, will be looked at as a potential spoiler.

Can Allred at least come as close as O'Rourke did? I would not count it out, although there are different factors with a Presidential turnout as compared to 2018. In many ways though, Allred lacks much of the baggage that O'Rourke carried. Still though, Cruz and his allies will try to use the Democrats' Congressional voting record against him and try to tie him to national party figures. There seems to be at least some concern about this race on the right. Just this weekend, Trump's campaign manager oddly Tweeted a nameless dig at Cruz's campaign honcho (with whom there is apparently bad blood going back perhaps to the 2016 cycle) about how "real professionals" need to get involved to "save" Cruz.

If October brings reason to look at this race as a Tossup. Trump and Republicans likely have widening political problems. For now though, I think this race still leans towards Cruz because the state is so Republican. However, political junkies would be wise to keep their eyes upon Texas.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

17 D  (8 Safe, 3 Likely,  4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

10 R   (4 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

45 Democrats (28 Holdover, 8 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

48 Republicans (38 Holdover, 4 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)