Utah Governor- Race of the Day

 Utah Governor

46 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

Outlook: Safe Republican

There is likely no state in America in which the Republican Party is as divided as Utah. That is typically considered a very bad sign for any political party, but the Beehive State is so overwhelmingly red, that it really does not matter in a general election. Despite whatever third party protest votes or write-in votes are cast, Democrats simply have a ceiling in statewide races that will make victory all but impossible. It is also true that no Democrat has been elected Governor in 44 years.

Republican incumbent Spencer Cox is seeking a second term. Before that, the one time small town farm boy had been appointed as a Lt. Governor replacement and served in that post for nearly eight years total. In Utah, candidates for Governor select their running-mate before the party hold spring conventions, and well ahead of the official June primaries. In 2020, Cox had selected State Senator Deidre Henderson for Lt. Governor and the two Gen X Republicans are running as a team of incumbents this year.

Cox has had an interesting if not somewhat tortured recent history within the Republican Party. While there is no doubt he is conservative, he has called for the party to be more open to others and more civil in its discourse. This has been a divide among politically active members of the Church of Latter Day Saints, which is the dominant political force in Utah and the church to which virtually every Republican official belongs to. At one point, LDS Republicans (formerly more commonly known as Mormons) were among the least likely members of the GOP to embrace the candidacy of Donald Trump. A lot of them still find Trump morally repulsive but he has continuously built his support within the state and with many past critics. Cox has at times seemed to be a NeverTrumper and then during election season, more open to a tacit offering of support of the controversial ex-President. This summer, Cox said he did not vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020 (which seems to contradict what he pledged to do during the 2020 Gubernatorial primary) and was not planning to vote for him again this year. For whatever reason, this July though, Cox endorsed Trump, and then after the shooting of July 13th said he felt Trump could use the experience to help unite the country and was confident he would change his rhetoric. Needless to say that has not happened, making Governor Cox, someone I have admired in many ways, look politically foolish and opportunistic. 

In 2020, Cox's ticket narrowly won a four way Republican primary in which his closest competitor was ex-Governor and former Presidential candidate Jon Huntsman Jr. Cox benefited by being seen as more conservative than Huntsman, although the latter had served as Ambassador to Russia under Trump and seemed to embrace him more. The general election was not much of a contest and Huntsman did not follow through on running as some kind of bitter grapes third party candidate.

This year, there is a bit of a different story. Cox was challenged by four Republicans at the April convention, a gathering dominated by the most right-wing members of the party, and it was not a surprise when State Representative Phil Lyman, who was running to the right of the Governor, won two third of the vote in a two person contest after the other candidates were eliminated. The anticipation was that Cox would petition to run in the primary and that he would win that contest. In June, that is what happened, although the 54-46 margin was a bit closer than expected.

Only one Democrat ran for Governor and the nominee is Brian King, a State Representative who once served as Minority Leader. His running-mate is Rebekah Cummings, a university employee and Chair of the State Library Board. In a traditional one on one race, Cox would easily defeat King in heavily Republican Utah. A couple of Independent candidates and a Libertarian are on the ballot, which could take some votes from the incumbent.

However, this contest took an unorthodox turn after Lyman refused to except the results of the primary he lost and sued saying that he and his replacement running-mate (after the first one was declared ineligible after the convention) were the rightful nominees because he had won the convention endorsement and that the primary was "illegal." The Utah Supreme Court did not see it that way, and thus Lyman is doing what Huntsman did not do four years earlier, and is running in November as a write-in candidate for Governor. It is worth noting that 10 years ago, Lyman, then a County Commissioner had been found guilty of some sort of ATV on federal lands violation during a protest and was sentenced to jail time. It appears he remained free while appealing the conviction, got elected to the State House, and in 2020, he was pardoned by Donald Trump.

Four years ago, Cox as Republican nominee cut an unusual ad with his Democrat opponent in which both men spoke about political unity. This year, the tables have turned a bit, in a more cynical way. The Democrat King appeared in an ad with the rebel Republican Lyman in which they appeared together to say that they agreed that Cox should not be reelected as Governor. So, you had one candidate who ran against the Republican incumbent, saying he was not conservative enough, joining forces with the far more liberal Democrat. In some ways, I cannot blame an underdog like King for doing anything he can to help his campaign, but it was a pretty cheap political stunt all around.

Will any of it matter? Well, Cox will probably win by a reduced margin because some people will write in Lyman, but I cannot see it mattering that much. Even if Cox were to be held under 50 percent, which I very much doubt will happen, it will be very hard for the Democrat to get much more than 30 percent of the vote. It will probably wind up being something like 55 for Cox, 30 for King, and 15 for the assorted third party names on the ballots plus the write-ins.

Governor races predicted thus far:

2 D (1 Likely, 1 Leans)

6 R (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predicted thus far:

22 Democrats (1 Likely, 1 Leans, 20 Holdover)

25 Republicans (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup, 19 Holdover)