Vermont U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 Vermont U.S. Senate

40 Days Until Election Day

Status: Independent (Democrat) Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

In the last edition, it was discussed how Vermont will easily reelect a Republican Governor once again. However, when it comes to federal elections, the elephants need not apply.

Bernie Sanders is 83 years old and seeking and seeking a fourth term in the U.S. Senate. He left some people wondering if he would run once again this cycle, but most expected he would. Before his stint in the Senate, Sanders served 16 years as Vermont's lone U.S. House Member. Going back even further, he was the Mayor of Burlington in the 1980s. The veteran politician has long since moved on from his reputation as a '60s radical turned frequent unsuccessful Independent or third party candidate for Vermont state offices in the 1970s. Even during his House tenure, Sanders was seen as a bit of a gadfly, but disheveled hair and all, he is very much a Vermont institution.

The Senator, who has long claimed the mantle of democratic socialist, has never officially become a Democrat. Nonetheless, many in the left-wing of the party have looked at him as a champion for years. His 2016 Presidential campaign, in the Democrat primaries, was expected to be not much more than a mere protest effort against Hillary Clinton, but Sanders won a surprisingly large number of contests and remained a thorn in the side of establishment Democrats that year. In 2020, he ran again, and despite having a health issue on the campaign trail, and being older than Joe Biden, still had his cadre of young leftist supporters. This time though, his part of the political base was fractured and thought he ultimately outlasted the other most liberal candidates, concerns over his general election viability over Trump led primary voters to rally around Biden. That proved to be a wise move for 2020. While Sanders is popular in Vermont, it is hard to see how he would ever be able to win a national election.

With his Presidential aspirations over now, Sanders continues to be a fixture on Sunday morning television shows, where he continues to present as an angry or at least frustrated populist. Many of his former backers somehow gravitated towards the politics of Trump over the past decade. Sanders, who was born in Brooklyn to a Jewish family is perhaps the Senate's most strident voice in opposing U.S. military aid to Israel.

Democrats in Vermont have long had an arrangement with Sanders where they back him for office, even though he officially rejects an association with them. Democrats are not running a Senate candidate again this cycle, and Sanders will continue to appear on the ballot as an Independent. As he always has though, going back to his first House term, he organizes with the party on Capitol Hill and is very vocal in telling Democrats how they should approach issues and causes.

Without the prospect of an open race, Republicans also largely sat out this campaign against the incumbent. The sole Republican candidate to file for the primary was businessman Gerald Malloy, a fairly new resident of Vermont. He took 96 percent of the primary vote, with 772 write in votes cast. In 2022, during a rare open U.S. Senate race in Vermont, Malloy captured the Republican nomination against a far more moderate female candidate, that party leaders thought could have some political potential. Malloy lost by 40 points in November.

While he may have a catchy slogan of "Deploy Malloy", the longtime Army veteran will not do any better this cycle against Sanders. Allies of the incumbent pushed for him to run for reelection and while Sanders may indeed serve another six years, well into his late 80s, Vermont does have a Republican Governor who would be in position to fill a vacancy. That vacancy would not last very long though, as a quick special election would be scheduled, and likely keep the seat blue.

 

 

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

18 D  (9 Safe, 3 Likely,  4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

11 R   (5 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

46 Democrats (28 Holdover, 9 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

49 Republicans (38 Holdover, 5 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)