White House Race- March 2, 2024

I am thinking this will be an especially short version this week. I did not get a chance to do this write-up earlier in the day.

It has felt like a long week. Political events keep unfolding but nothing to deflect away from what appears certain to be a Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump rematch in eight months. Right now, there are huge warning signs for both likely nominees. Still, if the polls are to be believed, and there may be some nuance to that, Trump still appears to be ahead. He was never ahead in the polls like this when he won in 2016 and he certainly was not ahead in 2020 when he lost. Lots of Trumpers think he has the election in the bag with no problems on sight against "Sleepy Joe", but they are foolish to make that assumption. Democrats seem to alter between those who panic that Biden cannot win and those who refuse to believe he can lose. The truth is he can definitely lose, and if he does, the party can blame and his enablers, for having him even embark on this campaign. In my view, until we are within 100 days of the election, we really have no idea who is going to win. I am pretty sure that one of the candidates will lose the election more than the other will win.

As expected last Saturday night, Trump won comfortably in Nikki Haley's home state of South Carolina, but the end result was at least a bit closer than many polls predicted. There seems to be a trend in politics going back to the last midterm to some special elections to the early Republican primaries, in which Trump or those associated with the Republican Party are underperforming the final polls, especially in the suburbs. This should be considered a huge red flag for the Trump backers who are so heartened by polls.

Trump also won Michigan again this past week by a big margin. All sorts of states will be voting on Tuesday on the day which is called Super Tuesday, but which certainly does not have the political star power it used to. It will be a huge upset if Haley were to actually win a single state. Trump is indeed very good at beating Republicans both in his races and usually in other races where he makes endorsements. He has not been good at beating Democrats though since his fluke win in 2016.

Last Saturday, watching the first few minutes of Nikki Haley's concession speech, it sounded like she may be dropping out, despite past promises not to. Thankfully, she was a "woman of her word" and did not do so. However, the writing is on the wall. Trump is not going to be denied the traditional political way. Something else will have to happen and Haley may or may not be the one who will be in the right place at the right time.

Reading between the lines, it sounds very possible that Haley may be planning to leave the race after this Tuesday's primaries. I hope that is not the case, but it would not surprise me. In recent weeks, she has sure sounded like someone who will not be endorsing Trump anytime soon, but sadly, it will not shock me if she does. The "No Labels" group is still looking for a candidate to run in the general election and they are talking about Haley. She has all but ruled it out saying she would not be willing to accept a Democrat as Vice President as a condition of receiving that nomination. I also think there are major logistical issues involved that would prevent a candidate who actively lost running as a Republican in various states being able to legally appear on a general election ballot.

Interestingly enough, it was Dean Phillips, the Congressman who has completely fallen flat in his primary challenge to Biden who suggested he might be willing to run on a ticket with Haley at the top. While many Democrats privately agree with Phillips on his pessimistic take on Biden's general election prospects, they are very angry at Phillips for acting on it. He has become nothing short of a laughing stock and probably has no future in the party. In Michigan this past week, he finished behind Marianne Williamson, who had already suspended her campaign. Then, after having beaten Phillips in Michigan, Williamson promptly jumped back in. Go figure. Has that happened in Presidential primary politics since Gary Hart in 1988?

The big question out of Michigan though was how many votes "Uncommitted" would receive and what it might mean in terms of warning signs for Biden in regards to voters in the Democrat base angry at him over Israel and Gaza. Those who advocated the protest vote against Biden in the primary, significantly downplayed expectations, and thus were able to easily beat those. However, the overall percentage of those opposing Biden in the Michigan Primary was probably smaller than many expected. In that respect, the "Uncommitted" forces fell short, but if those people do not show up to support Biden in November in a must-win state like Michigan, Donald Trump will be put in an extremely small position.

Some ask themselves how these pro-Palestinian voters would be willing to do anything to bring Donald Trump back, considering he wants a Muslim ban and certainly would be viewed as more pro-Israrel than a Democrat. Well, I sort of hate to paint with too broad of a brush.This is obviously not a completely fair analogy, but historically so many people who zealots against Israel have not exactly acted rationally. They have blown themselves up and of course flew planes into American buildings. Killing the "infidel"has always been a more important thing to them than bringing about what they might consider a positive outcome for their cause. So, if Jihadist apologists want to vote for Trump or do anything to help him politically, it is probably not a huge surprise.

The biggest headlines this week seemed to come from courtrooms from the SCOTUS in Washington D.C. to a federal courthouse in South Florida, to the Fulton Country Courthouse. Democrats seem to very much be counting on Trump being a convicted felon by Election Day as something that will pull them across the finish line. Indeed, that label against Trump could make a difference for some marginal voters. However, it is seeming less and less likely that Trump will be convicted of anything by Election Day. Now, 2025 or 2026 may be another story, but all of that of course depends on what happens this year.

The case in Fulton County is at risk of falling apart. We are likely to get a ruling early this week as to if Fanni Willis and her team are kicked off the case for an ill advised personal relationship between two top lawyers involving a lot of cash and potential lying under oath last month. If that happens, the case against Trump and his co-defendants (at least the ones who have not already accepted a plea) might be over.

The Supreme Court said it will indeed take up the case of if Trump has immunity for his actions as President. I am not too surprised they are doing this but it came as a bitter disappointment to opponents of Trump. I certainly think it is important for there to be no grounds for appear if Trump is convicted in his federal cases but this review by the Supreme Court is all but certain to significantly delay the Washington D.C. trial which had already been sent. Few believe that the Court will wind up siding with Trump on the merits of their argument, but the delay aspect is important.

All of this is leading to a huge calendar speculation game and all the various factors involved with that. If the D.C. trial is going to be delayed, Special Prosecutor Jack Smith is trying to go to an alternate strategy and move up the Florida classified documents case. In many ways, the facts and the law seem worse for Trump in that case.  However, the judge assigned to the case is believed to be far more likely to issue rulings that are friendly to Trump than the D.C. judge. Even more so,  the jury pool in South Florida, where Trump has a lot of support, is far more likely to be good for him than a D.C. federal jury which demographically be strongly Democrat. Needless to say, Trump's legal team is trying to delay that one too.

So, what exactly would it mean if one of the Trump cases, say the one in Florida occurs before Election Day and Trump beats the rap? Would a pre-election acquittal be a huge boost to Trump? It probably would not be harmful. The bottom line is that the New York City charges on the Stormy Daniels hush money really seems like the only case that could take place before Election Day, and the charges seem weakest there and the American public probably thinks the least of it.

In so many ways, partisan backers of both of these incredibly unpopular likely nominees have a ton to fret about for the remainder of this election cycle. I think the entire situation is horrible for the country, but at the minimum, at least I know that some pretty bad or at the minimum people with very bad judgement on both sides are going to be going through it. Ultimately, one group of them will be utterly devastated by losing to the other guy and will have only themselves to blame for nominating the 2024 loser.

As for me, depending on what Haley does after Tuesday's primaries, will determine which party's primary I will pull a ballot for on March 19 and what I will do with it. I will let you all know when the time comes.