White House Race- February 3, 2024

I keep almost typing 2004 as the date at top. If only..

These are busy times for incumbent President Joe Biden. Last week, I examined the Republican contest in detail, but did not give proper credit to Biden for officially winning the New Hampshire Primary. It was via a write-in effort in a low turnout event for a non-binding contest but he did win nonetheless. This was the fourth time attempt to win the contest, although in the first two efforts, the very first of which would have been when I was in elementary school, he had already dropped out of the Presidential race by the time the Granite State voted. Four years ago, Biden finished in 5th place, so this is definitely an improvement. 

 

Second place finished Dean Phillips of Minnesota is continuing on, and is frankly quite harsh in some of his rhetoric against Biden. His voting record in the House is basically completely in support of the incumbent but he has been sending the warning signal about electability and talks about how Biden is in "steep decline." Phillips seems pretty peeved about being disrespected by Biden and by the DNC and has accused them of planting stories that he may seek to run as a third party candidate this year. As for Democrat Marianne Williamson, who finished third in New Hampshire, there have been conflicting measures about whether or not she has dropped out of the race. Frankly, it does not matter.

As I was typing the last paragraph, Joe Biden has once again won the South Carolina primary. This will give him his first delegates of the 2024 primary cycle. This was a huge deal four years ago when Biden saved his political career, with a major assist by Congressman Jim Clyburn to take the Palmetto State for Democrats. It was basically the last major event I can remember before we started hearing about this virus flaring in China. In 2024, the turnout in South Carolina is likely to be way down for obvious reasons. Biden may maintain the loyalty of African-American primary voters in a southern state like South Carolina, but the state will not be in play in the general election and Democrats should be concerned about the overall black turnout for Biden, especially among younger and more liberal voters.

So,if Joe Biden looked dead in the water four years ago after Iowa and New Hampshire and benefited from a huge comeback win in South Carolina, surely Nikki Haley, who finished in a much higher position in those two states could count on the same in 2024? Well, not exactly. Haley is continuing to campaign against Donald Trump, but nobody expects she can even come very close in her home state of South Carolina later this month. At that point, we will see if she truly wants to stay in the contest. I hope she does. Some Democrats do as well, because of the way she is harming Trump, but considering there have now been several general election polls showing that Haley would run about ten points stronger against Biden than Trump does, other Democrats may decide they want her out of the way, to ensure the re-match against Trump. Thus, they will join in attacking her every time she gives a mealy-mouthed answer about America's racial history of if states might ever theoretically try to concede.

The electability issue is pretty much all Haley has to try to get Trump backers to change their minds, but that is harder when some general election polls show Trump also ahead of Biden, albeit by smaller margins. After the first Republican contests, it has been harder for Haley to stay in the news for positive reasons. That can either be a good thing or a bad thing, depending on the possibility of a Trump implosion. However, many Republicans, and much of America, have been waiting for that "moment"  since 2015 now, and Trump's people seem unmovable.

Biden has been in the news more this week. Democrats will point to data showing the economy is improving and in better shape than many think. Perception is reality in politics though, and after trips to the grocery store or other places, many Americans just do not feel that is the case. If perceptions change between now and November, the incumbent will benefit. The same goes over the current situation at the border. As things stand, that is a huge political vulnerability for the Biden Administration, and why he has recently been willing to offer up big concessions to Congressional Republicans. As talked about last week though, Trump and the Members of Congress he controls do not want that deal or any deal. They want to run on a problem and not be part of a solution. That runs the risk for them of having a big portion of the blame shifted on their backs.

There was sadness in America this week as three American soldiers were killed by a drone attack in the Middle East. This has been part of numerous attacks on American forces by Iranian surrogates since the Hamas attack on Israel in October. The President comforted the families via telephone but also once again made a claim to them that he can relate to their pain because his son died as a result of serving in Iraq. While nobody can deny that Biden understands what it is to be a grieving parent, he really should be careful about what he says in that regard. Beau Biden passed away from cancer five years after returning from Iraq. He was not killed in combat. It is said that Biden believes that his son developed cancer as a result of exposure to burn pits but that seems far from proven.

Yesterday, the President took part in the ceremony in his home state of Delaware as the remains of these fine patriots were brought home. Minutes later, the United States formally responded by attacking Iranian targets within Iraq and Syria. I am glad we responded. I am not sure if we are responding in the right way. There are obvious concerns about a wider conflict, but Biden and his Administration seem to take many options off the table publicly including saying we are not going to attack within Iran itself. In this political season, many Republicans are very critical of these measures,while at the same time, the faction of Democrats who are always wary of American military power, think that Biden should not be doing any of this without the approval of Congress. All politics aside, I hope we are embarking on the right strategy to deter the enemies of America from harming our interests. We also have the moral necessity to support our friends in Israel and Ukraine, even over any domestic noise about those alliances. 

As it relates to Israel, Biden continues to walk a tight rope. Whether justified or not, longtime Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is very unpopular on the American left. I believe one should put aside whatever they might personally think of his leadership when the survival of the entire nation of Israel is at stake. After all, Israel is democracy. Netanyahu is not going to be Prime Minister forever, and I sense probably not all that much longer, but right now he has an important job.  The Biden Administration keeps trying to send signals to the base of his party that they do not like Netanyahu very much. However, the people they are trying to talk to, are not going to be supportive of Israel regardless of who leads that country, so the leadership coming from the White House seems muddled.

Politics is a tough business and the last thing an embattled President needs is the ideological flank of his party causing trouble for him. Democrats, many of them Muslim-American, in places like Michigan are saying that they have abandoned Biden and there is nothing he can do to win them back, absent a complete abandonment of any American support or friendship for Israel. To most Americans, such a demand sounds nuts. All of this will continue to lead up to a growing chasm between Muslim-Americans and Jewish-Americans, especially within the Democrat Party. I will just note that practically every Jewish-American supportive of Israel who speaks about these current events expresses sympathy for the innocent people in Gaza and a desire to see Palestinians live in peace one day. Those in America who are virulently anti-Israel (many of whom are not Muslim of course) do not seem to really express much in the way of sympathy for innocent Israelis and their security concerns or accept the reality of how so many were raped, tortured, and murdered a few months back. Some even claim it is all a hoax

All sorts of Biden and Harris events have been interrupted lately by pro-Palestinian protestors. At least those particular people are taking time off from causing disturbances outside of children's' hospitals they associate with Zionism or trying to protest outside Holocaust Museums. This will likely continue and will cause headaches for Democrats. I cannot imagine it will not even occur on national television within the halls of the United Center when the party's convention is held this summer. The Chicago convention of 1968 is part of our American political history and what might happen in Chicago this summer inside and outside the hall this summer when Democrats gather could look ugly.

The last Democrat to be President Barack Obama also approved military attacks against Middle Eastern terrorists and he also deported a lot of Latin-Americans who had crossed over our southern border. By and large, Democrats sort of gave Obama a pass on those things and remained united behind him. Joe Biden facing similar, if not greatly worse challenges on those fronts, is not getting the same treatment within his party. The mindset on the left was that Obama was " young, black, and cool" while Biden is "old, white, and lame."

They are counting on the hope that fear of Donald Trump and what he might unleash on America can get their left-wing ruckus makers back on board.