White House Race- February 10, 2024

This was a week that was going one way, fairly predictable in a sense, although with some surprising occurrences on Capitol Hill. Those are the sort of things that political junkies care about more than "normal people."

Then, a story broke on Thursday afternoon that might have implications that matter a lot more to the average voter. It remains to be seen how this will all shake out by November, but these are tense times and both parties seem on a path to nominate candidates that partisan tribalists will rally around and excuse for literally anything. Less committed Americans are very dissatisfied with both choices. More so, it does not seem like there is really any serious ramping up on behalf of any person who might be a unifying third party candidate. We are headed to a decision where the vast majority of Americans, more so than ever before, will be voting against a candidate, and not for a candidate.That is if they even vote at all. My feeling is that a whole lot of people may be motivated enough to keep one candidate or another out of the White House, that they will show up.

After the events of this week though, it is clearer than ever that there is malfeasance, dishonesty, hypocrisy, and faux outrage that permeates through both parties. America is the lesser for it.

So to start off with, Joe Biden and Donald Trump won Nevada and are adding to their delegate lead. The Republican contest was more confusing. There was an official Caucus in which Donald Trump was the only major candidate. Before that, there was a non-binding primary, where Trump did not take part, but his campaign told people to vote for "None of These Candidates", a fairly unique Nevada option, and the Nobodys easily outpaced Nikki Haley. While I would have voted for Haley had I lived in Nevada, "None of These Candidates", might be a truer description of how I feel about today's Republicans.

There was dysfunction on Capitol Hill this week. No wonder more and more of the "sane" or "serious" Republicans are making decisions to head for the exits after their current term ends. Those in the Republican Party, loyal to Donald Trump, tanked the most conservative immigration reform bill in decades, because they said it was not conservative enough, but more so because those subservient to Trump knows he needs to complain about an issue far more than wanting to see a problem actually be fixed. For months, these Trump Republicans insisted that aid to Israel and Ukraine be tied to border security. When the time to vote came though, they turned their backs on that concept. So, stand alone aid to Israel and then also to Ukraine, one of which is far more popular with Republicans than the other is back on.

The House Republican majority under Speaker Mike Johnson failed to get enough votes though to secure the Israel aid package. A coalition of the deplorable on both the far left and far right voted against it, although at least a few pro-Israel Democrats voted against it as a protest the political machinations.

On the same day, Republicans though they were about to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, This would have made him the first Cabinet Secretary to be impeached in nearly 150 years. While I have major problems with the Biden Administration approach on border issues, impeaching Mayorkas is pointless and cheap political theater that sets a horrible precedent. Only three House Republicans agreed with me. Two of them are now retiring. For one thing, there will nowhere near enough votes to impeach the Secretary after a trial in the U.S. Senate. Next, even if he were forced out of office in such a way, Joe Biden would just pick a replacement, formally confirmed by the Senate or not, who will implement the same Biden policies. If they want to impeach anyone, they should impeach Biden, but they do not have the votes to do that at this point.So, this is what elections are all about.

The embarrassing thing was the way Republicans miscounted though, leading the vote to fail by one. I was very happy to see that. Apparently, a House Democrat they thought was absent showed up in a wheelchair to cast his vote. They have no right to be upset about that. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise was absent as he has been out of Washington undergoing cancer treatment. With three GOP defections, they wound up one vote short and poor (I don't mean that seriously) Blake Moore of Utah had to change his vote from yes to no, in order to allow him the procedural right to call the vote again, which is going to happen when Scalise returns to the House. Then, Mayorkas is likely to finally get impeached, pointlessly. For now though, Johnson and his fellow Trump stooge have egg all over their face. Of course, they had fewer margin for error because they kicked George Santos out of Congress and after being deposed as Speaker, Kevin McCarthy has peaced out.

 

On Monday, I will issue a formal prediction on a special U.S. House election in which Democrats might be able to pick up the seat that Santos had held for Republicans. Obviously, this contest will have serious impact on the balance of power, but more importantly will be seen as a major bellwether for this fall, particular on the issue of the migrant crisis and also crime, which has become a very salient issue in the New York City area.

Thursday morning, saw the Supreme Court listen to arguments as to whether or not Trump should be left off the Colorado ballot, as that state's Supreme Court ruled. As expected, it appears clear that the SCOTUS is poised to rule 9-0, or maybe 8-1 at worst, in favor of Trump. They will probably go heavily the other way in regards to the Presidential Immunity argument in another case, this Colorado thing will be seen as a win for Trump. It is rare that he gets any good news in any courtroom, so this has to be pointed out. Maybe he just had a better lawyer for this matter.

Then, the day unexpectedly turned and made things even better for Trump, both politically, and potentially as it relates to one of his legal cases.

It has largely been forgotten that Joe Biden has since early last year been the subject of a Special Counsel investigation regarding the fact that he had classified documents at his home in Delaware. Nobody expected he would wind up being charged with anything when all was said and done, but it recently been mentioned that his team was preparing perhaps for some embarrassing photos showing the storage of those documents.

Yes, those photos came out, and no, Biden is not being charged with a crime, but I, along with many others, was pretty much blown away by what his lengthy report said and what it means or perhaps should mean in regards to the incumbent's reelection campaign, or even if he should currently remain as President for the rest of this term. It was a whole lot worse than I expected.

On the substance, the narrative that Biden had put out there about how he did not know he had these documents turned out to not entirely be true. Apparently, he knew he had stuff in 2017 from his time as Vice President that he knew should not have had, and shared them with his ghostwriter. It sounds very similar to Trump's situation. The report says this was a significant national security risk. Biden took no steps to return these documents or classified information to the government in 2017, as he should have.

Now, it has to be pointed out that there is a big difference with Trump,even as Biden had been on television asking how Trump could be so careless, when he should have and perhaps did know how careless he had also been. After the Trump story broke, Biden cooperated with the government. Trump did not and fought it, which is why he got indicted and Biden did not. That seems appropriate to me. Special Counsel Robert Hur, a one-time Trump appointee as U.S. Attorney,who was named by Attorney General Merrick Garland in this special case said this very same thing in his report. So, Democrats from coast to coast are attacking Hur as a MAGA acolyte trying to get Trump elected, they should ask themselves why such a person would be saying in the report that what Trump did was worse than Biden. The allegation against Hur just does not hold up.

There are a lot of claims that some of the language and conclusions in the Hur report, which sound extremely bad for Biden somehow went too far. Nobody is really denying the reality of the findings though. They just think it should have been kept under the rug. This is a very common thing for people close to Biden. No wonder he is once again not doing the traditional Super Bowl Pregame Show interview. Last year, they said it would be too risky to sit down with Fox News. This year, CBS is getting snubbed. 

The report says that charges against Biden might have been warranted but it would have been hard to secure a conviction because he would present himself sympathetically as a "well-intentioned elderly man with a failing memory." Gee, what a campaign slogan. Personally, I think that is better than a malicious elderly man with a grudge against the world like Donald Trump is, but the reality is that both have been making a ton of verbal slips and confusing statements in recent weeks, and this leads to major questions about the health of both men and their fitness to serve as President through as many as five years from now.

The Hur Report said Biden could not remember what years he was Vice President. That is a monster red flag for me, even as someone who has consistently defended him against allegations that he has dementia. I do not think he actually does, but something not good is going on. It also said that he did not remember what year, within five years even, that his son Beau died. I refuse to believe he does not remember that. The President and people close to him put on an act that they were so offended that Beau even came up, but the questioning was completely legitimate because it related to a book Biden wrote about Beau's passing in which classified information regarding Afghanistan, during his time as Vice President, was part of the discussion.

 

Any decent American has sympathy for Joe Biden over the death of his son and his previous losses.As pointed out, these were legitimate questions as it related to the investigation. Biden really has no right to act offended over this. He talks about Beau's death all the time. He wrote a book about it. He brings it up whenever he attempts to comfort anyone who has lost a child. This is a good trait of Biden (although some families have said that his doing so made them feel uneasy or that he has misstated the facts.) He has encouraged people to speak openly about their losses and experiences with grief as a means to healing. Biden really has no right to act like he was victimized by this topic.

Nobody is saying Hur is lying about these things. They just wish he did not mention them. If Hur or his deputies acted maliciously during the questioning, they should ask for a redacted transcript to be released. They do not seem to want to do that.

So, Biden seems to have genuinely said in these interviews he had forgotten which years these things happened. Either that was actually the case or he was somehow off his game, as implied because it was right after Hamas's attack on Israel and he was focused on that. If so, I think they should have reasonably asked to postpone the interview for a few days, even though a President should be able to do and focus on many things at once.

Biden was under oath when asked these questions and he should have answered them if there is truly not an issue with his memory. Was he perhaps pulling a Vincent "The Chin" Gigante and merely pretending to be doddery in order to avoid being charged with a crime? If so, it worked but I do not think that happened. I think Biden was just so pissed off to have to do this interview or be questioned about his actions, that deep down he knew had been inappropriate, that he got testy and did not answer. Whatever the true scenario, it was not a good look, and now he has a world of problems because of it.

The Biden White House and Democrats immediately put on a full court press to attack Hur and this report. It is somewhat confusing though because they want people to believe the report totally exonerates him, while at the same time claiming the report is full of falsehoods. It really cannot be both.

In attacking Hur, they are taking a page from the Donald Trump playbook (first utilized by Bill Clinton) in attacking the prosecutors.  For months now, Trump has been railing about Alvin Bragg, Jack Smith, Leticia James, Fanni Willis, and others. In the case of Fulton's County's Willis, there have been some serious questions raised about her personal behavior and ethics involving that case, which could endanger the prosecution's attempt to convict Trump, especially before the election.

The bottom line is that Democrats and Biden are acting exactly like Trump. I have little sympathy for politicians who know they did something wrong, such as Hillary Clinton, and now Joe Biden, and despite that, are told they are not getting charged with anything, but then go on a political crusade to defend their electoral prospects by attacking the findings that technically cleared them. There has to be a better way for them to take a less serious L and portray it as a bigger W.

Indeed, this all does seem to feel similar to the Hillary Clinton/James Comey situation, minus the press conference announcing no charges. The irony is that if Clinton had been charged by the Justice Department (and would likely never actually gotten prison time), it would have allowed Democrats to find another candidate who would have probably beaten Trump easily in 2016. Adding to that irony, that candidate all but certainly would have been Joe Biden. Nonetheless, Clinton was not charged, her party's partisans rallied around her and against Comey, and she continued a doomed campaign that produced a President Trump.

Is a Biden 2024 campaign similarly doomed? Well, he was having some major political problems before and obviously, this is all going to hurt. A hastily arranged semi-press conference on Thursday evening (I thought for a minute he might actually do an LBJ and drop out of the race) pleased some Democrats because Biden was angry and self-righteous in defense of his mental competency and record. (Personally, I was pretty outraged when he said that Israel had gone "over the top" in fighting Hamas. After this week, they would know a lot about "over the top.) However, in this press conference, Biden committed yet another gaffe, coming after a few he had made a few the week prior. In this one, he said the President of Egypt was the President of Mexico. Mistakes happen, and Biden has been making mistakes literally for decades, which is why I do not feel he is totally senile, but it is hard to explain that one away. Attempts at further spin by the White House, by dodging legitimate media questions, also did not help.

I could go on and on about all of this but should not go on forever. Simply put though, concerns about Biden's age and vitality are the number one issue of this campaign, even more so than all the questions about Donald Trump being a fully fledged career criminal. Yet, Democrats insist, at least publicly, that Biden and only Biden, is the man to beat Trump and lead America forward. For their sake, they better be right, because most of the country really doubts that. The Republican spin machine will attack Biden every day about his slip ups and perception of his being in steep mental and physical decline. Democrats and the Biden campaign want to say similar things about Donald Trump, but are going to have a harder time doing so. They will also want people to be aware of Trump being charged for mishandling classified documents in a willful way, but now it is known that Biden did the same thing. Some will complain (unfairly I think) that only one of the men was charged, but the entire issue is muddled,and Trump's legal team will try to use this to their advantage in the Florida courtroom.

This has been a very bad week for Joe Biden. He and his team will have to try to find a strategy to fight public perception. It seems like his staff has little confidence in him and will be wary to present him to the public in anything but the most structured, scripted events. If his own people do not have confidence in him, why should the American people? By the same token, we should never forget how many people who worked with Donald Trump during his four years as President have come to believe he is very unfit  in a variety of ways.

 

Things Donald Trump said today at a South Carolina rally demonstrate once again what a pathetic and despicable person he is. He attacked Nikki Haley's husband for not being on the campaign tail (as if Melania has been.) 

Major Michael Haley is a commissioned officer with the South Carolina National Guard and is currently deployed with the 218th Maneuver Enhancement Brigade in the Horn of Africa. Donald Trump would crap his pants within five minutes if he were there. Trump is a man who has a long and collaborated history of saying things that were disrespectful to hostile of the service and sacrifice of people who have worn our country's uniform. He thinks they are "suckers and losers" for fighting for America's freedom and not to enrich themselves personally. Perhaps the only excuse might be that Trump is too dumb to know that Michael Haley is currently deployed. I think he knew though.

On an even more sinister matter, Trump spoke about how as President he will not defend our NATO allies, but would actually encourage Russia to do whatever they can to hurt them in an attack, if these countries did not "pay up" their share of defense dues. In saying this, Trump has never sounded more like a Mafioso. Such a man should never be anywhere near the Oval Office. As a matter of conscience, I cannot vote for Joe Biden in a state that he should easily win without me, but I would take my chances on a person in in full on dementia over Trump.

Something else surprised me on Friday. Recently term limited Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who had been the popular Republican executive of a very blue state, announced he would be a GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate this year. I did not expect he would run for President as the No Labels candidate, as he had publicly mulled. but I did not see this race coming. He was immediately attacked by both the left and right, which of course makes me want to root for him. I suppose he might have a chance, but I genuinely do not see how he can win a federal race in Maryland during a Presidential year., especially with MAGA in his state hating him. Running for President as an Independent, might not have put him in the White House, but it could have given him a better national platform.

It seems clear that center-left and center-right folks who would seek to fill the obvious vacuum for the people who want neither Trump nor Biden are being very leery in launching. The conventional wisdom has become that Biden is so weak and so feeble politically that any such effort would hurt him more than Trump and they do not want to play spoiler. They are perhaps correct. 

 

Democrats have hard questions to ask themselves and the clock is ticking each day before it might become too late. Is Joe Biden really the best they can do in 2024? Is it anything other than ego and hubris and a lack of self-realization that keeps him running? This is a matter Democrats will need to determine amongst themselves. They seem to not be willing to really even consider it and thus, they are putting a whole lot on the line for the nation and the world.

 

A whole lot of people are going to need to pull Joe Biden over the finish line if he is to win. Then, in a new term, who knows what America will get?