Final Election 2022 Predictions

1 Day Until Election Day

Millions have voted already and millions more will tomorrow. I do not really feel the need to change any of my predictions, race by race. As is the case though, I have tended to be "conservative" in making these picks, and I do expect Republicans to do at least somewhat better across the board, when the national dynamic occurs. Even the national pundits and prognosticators that Republican die-hards love to hate have the GOP winning slightly more elections than I do. Again, they will be right in that regard, but when I have gone through each individual race, these are what I came  up with. My hope is that I will not be incorrect on anything  that I am not calling a "Tossup."

There have been a lot of polls and a lot of discussion about polls. Over the past couple of cycles, it has been seen that the poll have tended to understate support for Republican candidates.

There are three possible scenarios involving this years polls.

1. Pollsters have learned from their mistakes and these bunches are pretty accurate. If so, Republicans should expect to have a very solid midterm and a lot to celebrate.

2. The polls are still too friendly for Democrats. If that is the case; katy bar the door. It is going to be a bad time to be a Democrat.

3. The polls have overcompensated in favor of Republicans. This is what Democrats have to hope for. I think it is probably the least likely of the scenarios although, there do seem to be a lot of newer, partisan Republican polls out this cycle. I would call them the "Own the Libs" polls. Whether they are accurate or not is less important than the "victory is coming" mindset that partisans/cultists (on both sides) thrive on. All that matters is that these people get to go online and post them and say things like "Boom!"

 

Counting all legal votes accurately is important. The way some states do so though is very unfortunate and thus it will be days or weeks, if not even more, to know how the results of all races.

Here are my formal predictions with the understanding that at least one runoff may be needed:

After *all* the results are final, I will do a post or a series of post where I review what happened and itemize all my prediction mistakes.

Governors:

22 D (6 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 8 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)  

28 R (8 Holdovers, 6 Safe, 8 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

NO NET CHANGE 

____________________________________________________________________________

U.S. Senate:

 

49 D (36 Holdover, 7 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup) 

51 R (29 Holdover, 10 Safe. 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

REPUBLICAN NET GAIN OF 1

 ______________________________________________________________________________

U.S. House

 

 

207 D  (129 Safe, 39 Likely, 23 Lean, 16 Tossup)

228 R  (138 Safe, 47 Likely, 24 Lean, 19 Tossup)

 

REPUBLICAN NET GAIN OF 15  

__________________________________________________________________________

Historically speaking, midterm elections, especially in a first term are rough ones for the incumbent party, so there should not be much of a surprise there.

 

However, this should be considered a huge missed opportunity for Democrats.

 

I could go on and on about what has happened to the Republican Party in this Trump Era and how ideas and solutions have fallen way behind bitterness and cruelty and grievances that the leader and his base demands. On the whole, I still agree with Republicans on ideological matters, but what they have stood for is no way to govern. 

The past two years though have seen Democrats running the entire elected government, at least on the federal level. A couple of days ago, I talked about how their messaging and strategy in these elections have served them poorly. 

Joe Biden was elected two years ago to not be Donald Trump. It should have been a low bar and he has proven to be a poor leader politically in addition to massively misreading what he saw as a mandate to move the country to the left. That is not what  the voters voted for.in 2020 and now Democrats are poised to pay the price.

The Presidential Election of 2024 is still two years away and there will be a lot of ups and downs and no way to determine now who will be sitting in the Oval Office after the dust settles. The frontrunners though in the major parties, which are the incumbent and his most immediate predecessor are both symbols of what has gone wrong in politics and in the country as a whole.

This has always been an optimistic country though so hopefully we will find a way to a different and better path forward.

Past Total Predictions: 

 

2006: 482-22 (96%)
2008: 462-19 (96%)
2010: 482-27 (95%)
2012: 452-27 (94%)
2014: 494-13 (97%)
2016: 469-12 (98%) 

2018: 487-18 (96%) 

2020: 459-22 (95%)