Almost Final U.S. Senate Recap and Updates

3 Days Until Election Day

Alabama- Safe Republican

Alaska- Likely Republican (Leans Murkowski)

Arizona- Tossup (D)- Change from Leans Democrat

Arkansas- Safe Republican

California- Safe Democrat

Colorado- Leans Democrat

Connecticut- Likely Democrat

Florida- Leans Republican

Georgia- Tossup (D)

Hawai'i- Safe Democrat

Idaho- Safe Republican

Illinois- Safe Democrat

Indiana- Safe Republican- Change from Likely Republican

Iowa- Likely Republican- Change from Leans Republican

Kansas- Safe Republican

Kentucky- Likely Republican

Louisiana- Safe Republican (Safe Kennedy)

Maryland- Safe Democrat

Missouri- Likely Republican

Nevada- Tossup (R)- Change from Tossup (D)

New Hampshire- Tossup (D)- Change from Leans Democrat

New York- Safe Democrat

North Carolina- Leans Republican

North Dakota- Safe Republican

Ohio- Leans Republican- Change from Tossup (R)

Oklahoma A- Safe Republican

Oklahoma B- Likely Republican

Oregon- Safe Democrat

Pennsylvania- Tossup (R)- Change from Tossup (D)

South Carolina- Safe Republican

South Dakota- Safe Republican

Utah- Leans Republican

Vermont- Safe Democrat

Washington- Leans Democrat- Change from Likely Democrat

Wisconsin- Tossup (R)

 

Total Predictions:

49 D (36 Holdover, 7 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup) 

51 R (29 Holdover, 10 Safe. 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

REPUBLICAN NET GAIN OF 1

 

The scenario for Republicans winning a majority in the U.S. Senate has clearly become enhanced over the past few weeks. There are some very narrow contests though so it is very possible Democrats could hold or that a wave will usher in a solid Republican majority.

Obviously, Georgia will be a key race to watch. All the scandals surrounding Herschel Walker barely seemed to matter to those who were supporting him. Expectation for him in a debate were very low and he surpassed them. I think it is more likely than not that he will win a plurality on Election Day, but may fall just short of avoiding a run-off. Thus, I am keeping my prediction of Tossup (D) for now. If nothing else, I will have more time to re-evaluate before a potential runoff. We all saw how Georgia Republicans blew their last Senate chances in runoffs. 

It is amazing that a weak Republican candidate in New Hampshire looks very much in the game. I cannot quite get to the point where I think Don Bolduc is favored to win, but that race now looks like a Tossup. A stronger GOP candidate would have definitely been favored at this point. The concept of weak Republican nominees continues to exist and could potentially harm the party if some of those candidates lose, but even weak candidates win in wave elections. That could happen in New Hampshire, and Democrats will have to live with facing the facts that they spent money to nominate Bolduc thinking he would be a push-over against the incumbent.

Arizona is far closer than I thought it would be, or that it should be, considering the Republican nominee, but the national mindset could portend a pick-up there as well. For now, I will keep with the prediction that Mark Kelly will eke out a win over Blake Masters.

The two races I have changed, and with it, control of the Senate itself, are in Nevada and Pennsylvania.

As has been the case in past Nevada elections, so much in regards to close races are determined by the early voting. The one big Nevada expert who reads the tea leaves and has been correct in predicting Democrat wins before now seems to think that Republicans are in better shape in the Silver State than they have been in the past. It could go either way, but I now think Adam Laxalt is a slight favorite to unseat Catherine Cortez Masto. The same dynamics will matter in the Gubernatorial election where I also changed my prediction. I think that race is somewhat more likely to produce a Republican pickup.

Obviously, Pennsylvania can still go either way. Presidents Biden, Obama, and Trump are all in the Commonwealth today focusing on this race. (I would go with whatever President Bush, by far the most superior President alive today, would suggest. Both nominees are pretty lousy in my view, so he should be glad to be staying home.)

 

Dr. Mehmet Oz is not a great candidate by any means but Lt. Governor John Fetterman was always a weak and vulnerable Democrat general election candidate for a swing state like Pennsylvania. That would have been the case even if he did not have a major stroke. I am glad he is continuing to improve, but that debate was fairly negative for him and his chances. Expectations for him were low, and unlike Walker in Georgia, he did even worse than expected.

In an open race, where Fetterman was seeking a new job, he clearly should have ended his campaign and allowed the party to replace him after his stroke, when it was clear how effected his speech had become. Another Democrat would be favored at this point. Hubris, stubbornness, or what have you is likely to cost Democrats this seat, and possibly the Senate itself, and all that will entail for the next two years and beyond.

Along those lines, Democrats have fumbled the messaging ball in regards to these elections. After the Dobbs decision in the summer, they have gone all abortion all of the time. Just about every ad for every Democrat running for any office anywhere in the country has been about abortion and how their opponent wants to "ban abortion with no exceptions for...." These ads have been constant. In many cases, they are not true. Republican candidates who do support exceptions for rape are not allowed that point, because someone who does not might have endorsed them or given them money. The ads are worded very carefully That is a pretty dangerous example of guilt by association that is fairly new this cycle and has been invented by Democrats. Republicans, in this Trump era, will only follow suit in future elections and Democrats will not like it. It is distasteful all around, of course, in my view.

Those who agree with Democrats on abortion are already going to be voting for them. Not everyone agrees with Democrats on abortion though. Far from it. Most voters are in the middle. They do not want "no exceptions" as some Republicans demand but they also do not want "no restrictions" as Democrats demand.  The party is losing votes of conservatives who may want to oppose the Trump Cult, but feel that Democrats have no place for them either. More voters seem far more concerned about the economy and inflation and crime than abortion. The abortion argument has been presented by Democrats this general election for so long and so incessantly that people have begun to tune it out in my view. They needed to focus on the concerns Americans have about crime and the economy and they just have been unwilling to engage.

In a nutshell, that is why Republicans are poised to make major gains on Tuesday.

 

As for me, I have not voted for a Republican federal candidate since 2016 when the underdog Senate and House nominees of the party I was once proud to be a part of both were publicly opposed to Donald Trump. While I will vote for some (though not all) Republican nominees for state and local office next week, I will continue opposing Trumpism both in the Republican Party and in the country at large. It is a battle worth continuing and starting in 2023, I will be doing weekly posts on Saturday to discuss the next Presidential election.

Past Senate predictions:

 

2006: 31-2 (94%)
2008: 34-1 (97%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 28-5 (85%)
2014: 36-0 (100%)
2016: 31-3 (91%)

2018: 33-2 (94%) 

2020: 33-2 (94%)