Almost Final Gubernatorial Recap and Updates

4 Days Until Election Day

Alabama- Safe Republican

Alaska-  Leans Republican (Leans Dunleavy)- Change from Likely Republican (Likely Dunleavy)

Arizona- Tossup (R)

Arkansas- Likely Republican

California- Safe Democrat

Colorado- Likely Democrat

Connecticut-Likely Democrat- Change from Leans Democrat

Florida- Likely Republican- Change from Leans Republican

Georgia- Leans Republican

Hawai'i- Likely Democrat

Idaho- Safe Republican

Illinois- Likely Democrat

Iowa- Safe Republican

Kansas- Tossup (D)

Maine- Leans Democrat- Change from Likely Democrat

Maryland- Safe Democrat

Massachusetts- Safe Democrat

Michigan- Leans Democrat- Change from Likely Democrat

Minnesota- Likely Democrat

Nebraska- Likely Republican

Nevada- Tossup (R)- Change from Tossup (D)

New Hampshire- Likely Republican

New Mexico- Leans Democrat

New York- Leans Democrat

Ohio- Safe Republican

Oklahoma- Leans Republican

Oregon- Tossup (R)

Pennsylvania- Likely Democrat

Rhode Island- Likely Democrat

South Carolina- Likely Republican

South Dakota- Likely Republican- Change from Leans Republican

Tennessee- Safe Republican

Texas- Leans Republican

Vermont- Likely Republican

Wisconsin- Tossup (D)

Wyoming- Safe Republican

Total with predictions:

22 D (6 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 8 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

28 R (8 Holdovers, 6 Safe, 8 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

NO NET CHANGE 

Since the last update, nearly two weeks ago, it has become clearer that Republicans are headed for a pretty big Election Night. This might matter more in federal races than these Gubernatorial contests, which often are decided on more local issues. I will touch some more on the national themes in updating Senate races tomorrow.

There are some changes on the margins in a few races here. The inability of Florida Democrats to seemingly even have a close race is very notable. Incumbents in Georgia and Texas, once thought of as vulnerable to national Democrat political figures seem pretty secure. Alaska pretty much is only interesting because of the ranked choice system and if the Independent former Governor gets to face the current Republican in the final round. Many people are talking about a race in New York that has turned out to look a lot closer than most expected it would at this point. Still, if the Republican wins there, it is likely because of a political tsunami coast to coast.

In spite of the bad night Democrats are going to have nationally, they will win back two blue states this year.

 

Considering the national environment, Republicans should be very disappointed they do not have stronger candidates in Illinois and Pennsylvania. Then again, Democrats spent a lot of money in Republican primaries to make that happen. 

Most political watchers can agree that there are really only five Gubernatorial contests that could go either way. If Democrats get wins in most, they will take much solace in that. If Republicans win all or most, they will be in charge in over 30 states.

The one change I have made in the outcome is in Nevada. Democrats are said to really be sweating out the situation down there in the desert across the board.

Any sort of national wave could easily produce GOP pickups in Kansas and Wisconsin, though I am sticking with a prediction of the incumbents eking it out.

I still have Oregon as a Republican pickup but the decrease in support for the Independent candidate is making the Democrat candidate more likely to have that be a wrong prediction. If not for the overall advantage of Republicans this year, I would have changed that prediction. Perhaps, I still win by Monday.

Across the nation, people will be looking at Arizona. When I did my first write-up, a few months back, I had it as Leans Democrat. I found it impossible to believe the state could elect someone as nutty as Kari Lake, but nutty just may be what is in politically these days. A couple weeks ago, I did change my prediction to a Republican hold, but the current polls do show a very close race. 

Democrat nominee Katie Hobbs ran an extremely poor campaign and thus will be lucky to win and if she loses, will deserve a ton of blame. The fact that she was afraid or unwilling to go on a debate stage and do what is needed to present a contrast to the Lake Show speaks very poorly towards her own confidence as a candidate and what this particular Democrat though about the intelligence and fairness of the voters. Some candidates can have a big enough lead they can afford to dodge debates. This was never going to be that kind of race and Arizona (and the country) could pay a price for that political cowardice.

Here is how I have done in the past on Gubernatorial elections during the national cycles:

2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 9-2 (82%)
2014: 32-4 (89%)
2016: 9-3 (75%) 

2018: 35-1 (97%) 

2020: 11-0 (100%)