Friday, November 04, 2022

Almost Final Gubernatorial Recap and Updates

4 Days Until Election Day

Alabama- Safe Republican
Alaska-  Leans Republican (Leans Dunleavy)- Change from Likely Republican (Likely Dunleavy)
Arizona- Tossup (R)
Arkansas- Likely Republican
California- Safe Democrat
Colorado- Likely Democrat
Connecticut-Likely Democrat- Change from Leans Democrat
Florida- Likely Republican- Change from Leans Republican
Georgia- Leans Republican
Hawai'i- Likely Democrat
Idaho- Safe Republican
Illinois- Likely Democrat
Iowa- Safe Republican
Kansas- Tossup (D)
Maine- Leans Democrat- Change from Likely Democrat
Maryland- Safe Democrat
Massachusetts- Safe Democrat
Michigan- Leans Democrat- Change from Likely Democrat
Minnesota- Likely Democrat
Nebraska- Likely Republican
Nevada- Tossup (R)- Change from Tossup (D)
New Hampshire- Likely Republican
New Mexico- Leans Democrat
New York- Leans Democrat
Ohio- Safe Republican
Oklahoma- Leans Republican
Oregon- Tossup (R)
Pennsylvania- Likely Democrat
Rhode Island- Likely Democrat
South Carolina- Likely Republican
South Dakota- Likely Republican- Change from Leans Republican
Tennessee- Safe Republican
Texas- Leans Republican
Vermont- Likely Republican
Wisconsin- Tossup (D)
Wyoming- Safe Republican


Total with predictions:

22 D (6 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 8 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 
28 R (8 Holdovers, 6 Safe, 8 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)
 
NO NET CHANGE 

Since the last update, nearly two weeks ago, it has become clearer that Republicans are headed for a pretty big Election Night. This might matter more in federal races than these Gubernatorial contests, which often are decided on more local issues. I will touch some more on the national themes in updating Senate races tomorrow.

There are some changes on the margins in a few races here. The inability of Florida Democrats to seemingly even have a close race is very notable. Incumbents in Georgia and Texas, once thought of as vulnerable to national Democrat political figures seem pretty secure. Alaska pretty much is only interesting because of the ranked choice system and if the Independent former Governor gets to face the current Republican in the final round. Many people are talking about a race in New York that has turned out to look a lot closer than most expected it would at this point. Still, if the Republican wins there, it is likely because of a political tsunami coast to coast.

In spite of the bad night Democrats are going to have nationally, they will win back two blue states this year.
 
Considering the national environment, Republicans should be very disappointed they do not have stronger candidates in Illinois and Pennsylvania. Then again, Democrats spent a lot of money in Republican primaries to make that happen. 

Most political watchers can agree that there are really only five Gubernatorial contests that could go either way. If Democrats get wins in most, they will take much solace in that. If Republicans win all or most, they will be in charge in over 30 states.

The one change I have made in the outcome is in Nevada. Democrats are said to really be sweating out the situation down there in the desert across the board.

Any sort of national wave could easily produce GOP pickups in Kansas and Wisconsin, though I am sticking with a prediction of the incumbents eking it out.

I still have Oregon as a Republican pickup but the decrease in support for the Independent candidate is making the Democrat candidate more likely to have that be a wrong prediction. If not for the overall advantage of Republicans this year, I would have changed that prediction. Perhaps, I still win by Monday.

Across the nation, people will be looking at Arizona. When I did my first write-up, a few months back, I had it as Leans Democrat. I found it impossible to believe the state could elect someone as nutty as Kari Lake, but nutty just may be what is in politically these days. A couple weeks ago, I did change my prediction to a Republican hold, but the current polls do show a very close race. 

Democrat nominee Katie Hobbs ran an extremely poor campaign and thus will be lucky to win and if she loses, will deserve a ton of blame. The fact that she was afraid or unwilling to go on a debate stage and do what is needed to present a contrast to the Lake Show speaks very poorly towards her own confidence as a candidate and what this particular Democrat though about the intelligence and fairness of the voters. Some candidates can have a big enough lead they can afford to dodge debates. This was never going to be that kind of race and Arizona (and the country) could pay a price for that political cowardice.

Here is how I have done in the past on Gubernatorial elections during the national cycles:

2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 9-2 (82%)
2014: 32-4 (89%)
2016: 9-3 (75%)
 
2018: 35-1 (97%) 
2020: 11-0 (100%)

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home