U.S. House Recap and Updates

2 Days Until Election Day

Predicted:

207 D  (129 Safe, 39 Likely, 23 Lean, 16 Tossup)

228 R  (138 Safe, 47 Likely, 24 Lean, 19 Tossup)

 

REPUBLICAN NET GAIN OF 15 

I am going to stand pat with my race by race predictions although there are certainly some I could change the classifications of. It is just too hard to try to research all of those at once just to see if it is worth moving it over a notch.

For the record, I absolutely expect Republicans will net more than 15 seats. I will be somewhat surprised if they get 30 or more, but that is possible. A pickup in the range of 40 seats would be a sign of a political tsunami. I am somewhat skeptical of that considering that there are less competitive districts than there have been historically.

As seen below, I tend to do very well in predicting each individual House race, but I do think because of redistricting, I will be more off in the record than I have been in past cycles. It just hard to be as accurate in predictions without a history of how incumbents or the incumbent party does in the exact same version of the district. I think I will do better two years from now, but let us see what happens.

Past U.S. House prediction results:

2006: 416-19 (96%)
2008: 418-17 (96%)
2010: 414-21 (95%)
2012: 415-20 (95%)
2014: 426-9 (98%)

2016: 429-6 (99%)

2018: 419-15 (97%)

2020: 415-20 (95%)