Wisconsin U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 Wisconsin U.S. Senate

27 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

Outlook: Leans Democrat

America's Dairyland will milk a lot of attention on Election Night. If 2020 is the model, it could determine which Presidential candidate surpasses 270 electoral votes and it also may determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. It is currently a rare state that these days that has Senators from two different parties. One is a MAGA Republican, who managed to win a highly targeted reelection campaign in 2022, and one is a liberal Democrat. This year, it will be the Democrat who is seeking another term.

During the Presidential year of 2012, Tammy Baldwin won this Senate seat by defeating a one-time popular GOP Governor attempting a political comeback, and she did so with votes to spare. Six years later, Baldwin won a second term by double digits. This cycle, things seem to be more competitive for her. Before entering the Senate, where she became the first and thus far only openly gay person to be elected, she had served 14 years in the U.S. House from the Madison based district. In 1998, Baldwin became the first openly gay person to be elected to Congress as a non-incumbent. Her status as that sort of political trailblazer does not get as much attention as it once did and in 2020 she was reportedly under consideration to become Joe Biden's running-mate, before he picked Kamala Harris.

Baldwin has a reliably liberal voting record which several years ago would seem to be not be much of a problem in Wisconsin. Another liberal Senator was defeated in an upset during the 2010 midterms though and when Russ Feingold attempted a comeback in 2016, he once again lost to Republican Ron Johnson. Perhaps even more shocking to some, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton there that year to become the first Republican to carry the state since 1988. While Baldwin won reelection in 2018, and incumbent Republican Governor lost to a Democrat that year, and Biden narrowly won the state in 2020, the midterm year of 2022 proved Wisconsin politics was about as competitive as anywhere in America. Senator Johnson won another term by less than a point over a Democrat who might have been painted as too far left for the state, while Democrat Governor Tony Evers beat back a tough reelection challenge.

Republicans hoped to give Baldwin a real race in 2024, but initially were disappointed by recruiting failures. Prominent members of the party such as former Governor Scott Walker and Congressmen Mark Gallagher and Tom Tiffany passed on running for Senate. It appeared Baldwin might have an even easier time than she did six years earlier. Eventually though, venture capitalist Eric Hovde emerged as the Republican choice. In the August primary, Baldwin was unopposed and Hovde captured 86 percent against two unknown opponents.

Hovde, before he grew a mustache, had run for the Senate before. During the 2012 election, in which Baldwin was first elected statewide, Hovde finished in a surprisingly strong second place in a four way primary against former Governor Tommy Thompson. The other candidates were running as younger and more conservative alternatives and Hovde came closest but fell short 34-31. The wealthy businessman remained active in Republican causes but passed on a couple of other opportunities to seek office before jumping into the 2024 Senate race more than a decade after his last run.

Wisconsin has become used to having tightly contested Senate elections over the past decade and a half where there are stark differences between the candidates on a whole variety of issues. That is definitely the case this year. Hovde is advocating change from the incumbent on the typical issues that Republicans are running on this year, but has faced controversy over his recent residency in California and questions over his business record. The issue of abortion is predictably a hot-button one in the state, in which Baldwin is pushing very hard on her pro-choice views, while Hovde said he supports limitations after 12-14 weeks of pregnancy. Earlier this summer, the Republican was caught on tape being critical of the part of Obamacare that allows young people to remain on their parents insurance. He also was found to have made comments in which he seemed to disparage the concept of people who live in nursing homes voting in elections.

For a variety of reasons (and I would add his Magnum PI wannabe mustache), Hovde might not be a particularly strong candidate in Wisconsin. Still, he cannot be counted out. While the polls have consistently shown that Baldwin has remained slightly ahead or her challenger, things are still close, and the Presidential election is even closer. It is hard to imagine the mindset of this particular group of voters, but there are citizens who are planning to vote for both Donald Trump and Tammy Baldwin. It seems unlikely that there will be any discernible number of Kamala Harris and Eric Hovde voters.

While some recent polls have shown Harris narrowly ahead in the state, one out today has shown movement towards Trump who leads his opponent there 48-46. At the same time, Baldwin is ahead of Hovde 50-46. This is all pretty fascinating from a political science standpoint. It is indeed very possible that if Trump were to win the state, Hovde would be in position to benefit also. Still though, the polling data does not seem to warrant calling this race a Tossup, at least not right now. Democrats are hoping for a lot of young college-age voters to turn out, as they are more apt to do so in a Presidential year. In 2016, Republicans still won the state though, although the overconfidence of the Hillary Clinton campaign may have played a role. This time around, Harris and the Democrats seem to be properly concerned.

When all is said and done, I think Baldwin will probably win another term by about 4 points or so. One way or another, the Presidential election will probably be a bit closer.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

21 D  (9 Safe, 5 Likely,  5 Leans, 2 Tossup)

12 R  (6 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

49 Democrats (28 Holdover, 9 Safe, 5 Likely, 5 Leans, 2 Tossup)

50 Republicans (38 Holdover, 6 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)