West Virginia U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

West Virginia U.S. Senate

28 Days Until Election Day

Status: Independent (Democrat) Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Safe Republican

I am about to spill too many words regarding an election where the outcome is not in doubt. When I discussed the West Virginia Gubernatorial election a few days back, I mentioned the people who are the major players in this race. They are outgoing Senator Joe Manchin and Governor Jim Justice, the man who is about to replace him. The other main character though is Donald Trump. Whether Trump wins or loses in November, he has had a tremendous and likely enduring impact on shaping the politics of West Virginia.

After 14 years in the Senate, Joe Manchin is not seeking another term. The former Governor has always sought office as a Democrat and has never lost a general election. This includes a narrow 2018 victory in which Trump put much effort into defeating him. Now 77 years old, Manchin would have had a difficult path to reelection and he took a long time to decide what he would do. For years, some Republicans had tried to convince the most conservative Democrat on Capitol Hill to switch parties, but he repeatedly refused to do so. Running as a Democrat in 2024 would have been nearly an impossible task. Some thought Manchin would stand a chance if he were to declare himself an Independent. Ultimately, he made that step, but only after saying he would not run again. The national Democrats who have been carping about Manchin for years and threatening primary challengers to him might be happy to see him go, but they have to reconcile that with the fact that his seat is going to go a Republican. 

 

Meanwhile, over the past year plus, Manchin has been the topic of speculation over whether he might run for Governor again in his state, jump back into the contest for Senate he already left, or run for President. Manchin apparently gave serious consideration to running for President under the banner of the No Labels Party, perhaps on some sort of ticket with his friend Mitt Romney, the also retiring Republican Senator from Utah. Like everyone else though, the No Labels situation was passed over. After Joe Biden dropped out of the Presidential race this summer, Manchin briefly considered running for the nomination as a Democrat, even though he had declared himself no longer a member of the party months earlier.  That odd trial balloon only seemed to last a few hours though. Soon enough, Manchin would make remarks in which he basically endorsed Kamala Harris. Very recently though, he said he would not endorse Harris, related to her position of getting rid of the Senate filibuster to try to enshrine abortion laws nationally (and I have written about how I agree with him on that.)  For a time I wanted Manchin to run for President and thought he would take votes from Trump, but Democrats worried he would perhaps play spoiler and doom Joe Biden. That played a big part in Manchin not running, but Biden's debate performance wound up dooming his candidacy on his own.

Term limited Republican Governor Jim Justice entered the race for Senate before Manchin bowed out. This challenge might have had a lot to do with the incumbent's decision. The aspiring freshmen Senator is 74 years old and also very tall and very wide. He has recently conducted most of his public appearances while sitting on a chair, often accompanied by his very large English Bulldog "Babydog" who by appearance could theoretically feed a Haitian family of 12 in Springfield, Ohio. One cannot help but consider the possibility that Justice may not be able to complete a six year term as a U.S. Senator. A vacancy would be filled by whomever succeeds Justice as Governor, which is almost certain to be a Republican although the current nominee is not the candidate the outgoing Governor had endorsed in this year's Republican primary.

Despite his folksy appearance, Justice is a very rich man, from a variety of business interests, and someone who has frequently been subject to lawsuits and government action. He indeed has a lot in common with Trump. While he was once a Republican, he ran for office for the first time as a Democrat in 2016, when he was elected Governor, on a pro-Trump platform. While he faced critics in his state as Governor on both sides of the aisle, Justice did not take long before declaring himself a Republican, at a rally with then President Trump by his side. Trump referred to him as "the largest, most beautiful man" or something along those lines. Justice easily won reelection in 2020 as a Republican.

 

In the May primary for Senate, Justice had Trump's endorsement and won over six opponents with 62 percent of the vote. The one other serious contender was Congressman Alex Mooney. The Cuban-American had a very interesting political background. As a college student, he ran unsuccessfully for office in New Hampshire. Years later, he was elected to the Maryland State Senate and went on to serve as the Maryland Republican Chairman. After having attempting to run for Congress in Maryland in 2012 and 2014, which he was unable to do because he was officially serving as a Congressional staffer, he moved across state lines to West Virginia. where he won a crowded Republican Congressional primary and then competitive general election in 2014. A strident conservative on Capitol Hill, Mooney continued to serve as a Congressman before running against Justice and claiming to be the legitimate MAGA candidate. The Congressman had some prominent national and state endorsements but would only receive 27 percent of the primary vote though against Justice. Support from Donald Trump proved impossible to overcome among West Virginia Republicans.

In the meantime, Democrats had a three-way primary for a nomination that essentially doomed the winner to oversee a Senate seat switching from (technically) blue to red. Oddly enough, one of the candidates was Don Blankenship, a former Energy CEO who served prison time for his role in safety violations related to a fatal coal mine accident. In 2018, Blankenship ran as a Republican for Senate and to the relief of many in the party finished no better than third place in the primary, although he was  known for coining the term "Cocaine Mitch"  to refer to Mitch McConnell. Since then, some of his rhetoric about Elaine Chao, the Taiwanese born former Cabinet Secretary and wife of McConnell, has been adopted by Trump. Blankenship went on to become the 2020 Presidential nominee of the right-wing Constitution Party but four years later was running for Senate again, this time a a Democrat. Once again, he would finish in third place, though somehow receiving 18 percent in that party's primary.

Thirty-three year old progressive activist Zach Shrewsbury finished in second place in the May voting with 36 percent while the winner, taking 45 percent was Glenn Elliot, the Mayor of Wheeling, who had the support of organized labor and outgoing Senator Manchin. As is the case for West Virginia Democrats in the Gubernatorial election,. they have nominated a credible candidate who serves as Mayor of one of the largest cities in the state. Elliott simply has no realistic chance though of winning a statewide federal election in the state, especially at the same time Donald Trump is on the ballot as the Republican nominee for President. A lot of people who might have major qualms about Justice are still going to vote for him because he is a vote for a Republican majority in the Senate. This factor will likely give Justice a somewhat larger victory than the less than overwhelmingly popular Republican candidate for Governor.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

20 D  (9 Safe, 5 Likely,  4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

12 R   (6 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

48 Democrats (28 Holdover, 9 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

50 Republicans (38 Holdover, 6 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)