U.S. House Predictions: Alabama- Arkansas

 23 Days Until Election Day

Alabama

 
Note: Alabama is one of the states that has a new Congressional map since the 2022 elections. Thus, as I would after a post-census redistricting cycle, I am presenting the information specifically related to the new districts, while also listing the current totals under the outgoing Alabama map.

1. Tom Holmes D vs. Barry Moore R (Trump 75%)- Safe R

2. Shomari Figures D vs. Caroleene Dobson R (Biden 56%)- Leans D

3. Mike Rogers R (Trump 70%)- Safe R

4. Robert Aderholt R (Trump 81%)- Safe R

5. Dale Strong R (Trump 63%)- Safe R

6. Elizabeth Anderson D vs. Gary Palmer R (Trump 68%)- Safe R

7. Terri Sewell D vs. Robin Litaker R (Biden 64%)- Safe D

AL current: 1 D, 6 R

AL predicted: 2 D, 5 R

Current total: 1 D, 6 R

Predicted: 

2 D (1 Safe, 1 Leans)

5 R (5 Safe)

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Alaska

1. Mary Peltola D (Trump 53%)- Tossup (D)

AK current: 1 D, 0 R

AK predicted: 1 D, 0 R

Current total: 2 D, 6 R

Predicted: 

3 D (1 Safe, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

5 R (5 Safe)

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Arizona

1. David Schweikert R (Biden 50%)- Tossup (D)

2. Eli Crane R (Trump 53%)- Leans R

3. Open (Ruben Gallego D)- (Biden 74%)- Safe D

4. Greg Stanton D (Biden 54%)- Likely D

5. Andy Biggs R (Trump 57%)- Likely R

6. Juan Ciscomani R (Biden 49%)- Tossup (R)

7. Raul Grijalva D (Biden 66%) - Safe D

8. Open (Debbie Lesko R)- (Trump 56%) - Leans R

9. Paul Gosar R (Trump 62%)- Likely R

AZ current: 3 D, 6 R

AZ predicted: 4 D, 5 R

Current total: 5 D, 12 R

Predicted:

7 D (3 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)

10 R (5 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

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Arkansas

1. Rick Crawford R (Trump 69%)- Safe R

2. French Hill  R (Trump 55%)- Likely R

3. Steve Womack R (Trump 60%)- Safe R

4. Bruce Westerman R (Trump 66%)- Safe R

AR current: 0 D, 4 R

AR predicted: 0 D, 4 R

Current total: 5 D, 16 R

Predicted:

 

7 D (3 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)

14 R (8 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)