Mississippi Governor Election

Mississippi Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Leans Republican

The Magnolia State is far from as Blue as a place like Hawai'i, but Democrats are hoping that state politics will be all shook up this week based on the performance of their nominee for Governor, a second cousin of Tupelo born Elvis Presley.

There has been much chatter that an upset could be in the offing, but suspicious minds like my own are a bit skeptical. There is little doubt though that incumbent Republican Governor Tate Reeves is far from an all-star politician, while Democrat Brandon Presley, a an elected member of the Mississippi Public Service and one time small Mayor is seen as having strong appeal. I definitely do not discount the factor of the name Presley garnering some votes.that would not otherwise be there. Fans of "The King" maintain a burning love for the singer who (allegedly) passed away less than a month before Brandon Presley was born in 1977.

Mississippi has clearly been a Republican stronghold for a long time now and a turnover there is something national Democrats have been saying to themselves "if I can dream" about achieving. It is worth nothing that the election system in the state is a bit odd. It used to be that a candidate needed to win a majority of the vote and a similar majority in a majority of state legislative districts in order to be elected Governor. That all sounds pretty complicated, but if that did not happen, the election would be thrown into the State House of Representatives. That actually last happened in 1999 which was the last time the Democrats won the Governorship. That action merely reinforced the plurality winner of the popular vote. Now, the rules have been altered somewhat and if a candidate does not receive a majority of the vote on Tuesday, the election will in effect be return to sender, as voters would then pick among the top two finishers in a November 28 runoff. 

Many Democrats around the country are saying that it is very possible that Presley holds Reeves below 50 percent and necessitates a run-off. Republicans, wanting the race to be over with, must be saying to silently to voters "don't be cruel" as that would create a major narrative. I actually think a runoff would tend to favor the Republican candidate as the state party is probably a good deal more organized than Democrats in the ability to get voters to the polls twice in a month. In spite of all of this speculation, only Reeves and Presley are active candidates in this race. The fact that a runoff is even a remote possibility is because Independent Gwendolyn Gray, an African-American liberal activist type, will have her name appear on the ballot. Last month, she ended her candidacy and endorsed the Democrat Presley. The fact that she did not do this on time could prevent the Democrat's nominee from any outside shot of winning outright on Tuesday. Nonetheless, the endorsement was probably a welcome sign and Presley might have told Gray, "Thank you. Thank you very much."

Four years ago, Democrats thought they had a chance to win this office, and nominated the one remaining politically successful elected official in the state in their Attorney General, who was considered a relatively conservative Democrat. At the time, Tate Reeves was the sitting Lt. Governor and had to endure a difficult nomination process. He was perceived as being not very telegenic and not a natural politician. Still, he won by five points, even as Democrats were taking Kentucky and Louisiana in 2019.  Then President Donald Trump, in his pre-Jailhouse Rock era had campaigned on behalf of Reeves, and there was debate over whether that hurt or helped the Republican candidate.

As Governor, Reeves has had fairly middling approval ratings. He took political heat on both sides of the debate over Covid restrictions by taking some changing stances during the pandemic. The disease hit the start hard though even as Reeves suggested that fear was not as big of a factor in the heavily Christian believing state. Reeves has also had the historical distinction of being Governor who signed legislation allowing Mississippi to be the final state to remove Confederate symbols from their state flag and was in office when the United States Supreme Court issued its ruling overturning Roe vs.Wade, based upon a  lawsuit that originated in Mississippi. The staunchly Pro-Life Reeves hailed this decision but in giving interviews refused to rule out the possibility that he might support banning forms of contraception. 

This year, Reeves was challenged in the Republican primary by candidates who ran to his right, including an anti-vaccine physician who took 18 percent, but the incumbent still advanced to the general election with 75 percent of the vote 

Currently, a big issue in the election has been the welfare scandal in which funds that were designed to go to poor residents were misspent or went instead to projects favored by the wealthy or connected, such as ex-NFL quarterback Brett Favre, a Mississippi native. While this story largely involves actions that occurred during the time of Reeves' Republican predecessor as Governor, Democrats are trying to tie Reeves to the mess, including communications with Favre while the current Governor was Lt. Governor. Reeves and his campaign deny they had anything to do with any misconduct and state that they are actively trying to rectify the wrongs there were committed before he became Governor.

Democrats have been looking to Presley to run for higher office for several cycles now. I have to say that he happens to look a good deal older than his current age of 46 but it also must be mentioned that the cousin of Elvis is said to have lost over 200 pounds about a decade ago. That is a pretty remarkable feat to have lost that big hunk of..weight. Presley was nominated for Governor this year without opposition. As a member of the state PSC, he has been elected four times by basically a third of the state.

Presley is portraying himself as a moderate Democrat and says he is conservative on some divisive social issues, including abortion. Both Presley and his Republican opponent support Mississippi's abortion ban, which is something that is causing a dilemma for pro-choice advocates in the state and around the country who feel that running on this issue and the Supreme Court decision that threw the legality of abortion to the states is a matter of faith for all Democrats. Presley has tried to point out his differences with Reeves in regards to the social safety net but that fact is that there are very few Pro-Life Democrats running for office anywhere these days and if this nominee hopes to have any choice of success, he will have to hope that social liberals are willing to overlook this disagreement and come out to support him. As mentioned, being Pro-Life did not allow the Democrat to win the Governorship of the state in 2019.

Presley will also need a very large African-American turnout to have a chance against the Republican incumbent and there seem to be signs that he is doing very well among that community. Just how many turn out to vote and potentially again in three weeks if a runoff is needed will be a key component. Republican and non-partisan polls are showing a solid but not overwhelming advantage for Reeves, while polls associated with Democrats show a virtual dead heat.

My sense is that unlike Kentucky where there is the advantage of incumbency for a Democrat Governor, the road to victory will be harder in Mississippi. Politics is so nationalized these days, that in Mississippi any Republican is going to have an edge. 

It is now or never though for Democrats who think they can pull off this upset. For all the words I have written about this race, it is time for a little less conversation and a little more action. Elvis may have worn blue suede shoes but Brandon Presley is running in a very red state. I think Reeves pulls it off, probably by a narrow majority on Tuesday, but if not, in the runoff.

CGPolitics has left the building....