Democracy 2024: # 43

The month of October has been hard to reconcile in terms of current events. It is a time of great angst around the world and here at home. What has been especially troubling to me and difficult to come to terms with are the open displays of anti-Semitism, not just internally, but here in the United States as well. While hatred of Jews knows no particular partisan ideology, the aftermath of the Hamas attack on Israel and the response of Israel has been most prevalent on the left. As I wrote about last week, most Congressional Democrats have expressed their support of Israel, but this week, 15 House Democrats (and one consistently isolationist Republican) either voted No or President on a bipartisan resolution to express support for Israel after the worst attack in its history and the greatest single tragedy for the Jewish people since the Holocaust. It is also five years this weekend since the horrific Tree of Life mass murder at a Pittsburgh synagogue. Those murders were done by an American who had become poisoned by right-wing conspiracy theories and lies. It was far easier for people on the left to denounce him than what we are seeing these days on college campuses and in public opinion surveys of young people, who somehow feel that a genocide conducted by Hamas is somewhat justifiable against Israel.

In my neighborhood, there have been many Ukrainian flags being displayed since Russia invaded that nation. I have always been heartened to see them and recognize that many of the people displaying them were likely born in Ukraine or still have family members living there. The town in which I live also has a very large Jewish population but I have not seen much in the way of Israeli flags this month. People are probably afraid to display the Star of David and I can understand why. Attacks against Israel and Jews is somehow en vogue these days which is why we have seen images of Jewish-Americans being harassed on the streets and of a group of Jewish college students hiding in a New York college library because pro-Palestinian activists were pounding on the doors trying to forcefully confront them.

 

Israel remains on a war footing and has recently started a ground incursion into Gaza. This is an incredibly complex issue with the fate of many American hostages of course an important consideration for the United States in the advice they are offering Israel. The State of Israel has much to think about as it relates to the government of Gaza once the necessary goal of eradicating Hamas is achieved, however long that may take.

All of this is happening with unprecedented political activity happening at home. There is finally a new House Speaker, demonstrating a quick and unexpected rise to power not seen in modern times. There was also a mass shooting this past week which seems too too familiar. Eighteen people were killed and many others injured Wednesday night in Lewiston, Maine. That relatively small town will never again be known solely as the location of a controversial Muhammad Ali- Sonny Liston fight. After an intense manhunt and much fear in that area, the killer was found dead last night, by a self-inflicted gunshot. Thankfully, that put an end to his specific threat to others but the debates over gun control and mental health will of course go on. Many people think they have easy answers to these crises but they do not and it will of course happen again unfortunately.

On Capitol Hill, it has been quite a saga for Republicans to pick a new House Speaker. For about an hour and a half, it looked like the newest nominee, Tom Emmer, the House Republican Whip could get the job, but all it took was a scathing statement by Donald Trump on social media to seal the deal for those who did not want Emmer in place. Despite voting to certify the 2020 election and a vote to affirm support for the legalization status of same-sex marriage, Emmer had been pretty pro-Trump in his words and deeds as a member of the House Republican Leadership. MAGA had it out for him and when Trump said he was a "Globalist RINO" and said he "barely knew" him (despite much evidence to the contrary), it was all over for Emmer and Republicans were back at square one.

It was crystal clear that Trump and fear of Trump and his base voters continue to dominate the Republican Party. That is despite the fact that the legal news for Trump seems to get even worse for him with each passing week.The bad legal news is probably even helping him consolidate support among Republicans because it is a way to "own the libs." This week saw former Trump attorney Jenna Ellis, once a sweetheart of sorts of the MAGA circle take a plea deal to testify against him in the Georgia case. Most significantly are reports that former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows has been working with the Special Counsel, especially as it relates to the Washington D.C. election interference case and that he will likely be a star witness against Trump, when he will affirm that those around the former President knew he lost the election to Joe Biden and told him so.

So, by the night Emmer was ousted, Republicans had pretty much grown frustrated and decided to end the spectacle however they could. They turned to Mike Johnson, a fairly junior Congressman from Louisiana, who has never chaired a Committee or been in the top levels of party leadership. Basically, he was the one guy that nobody in the conference really hated so he would go on to receive unanimous Republican support on the House floor. The American people and many others in government know very little about Johnson as well. His face and his name appear generic and non-threatening. Indeed,. Speaker Johnson comes across as a very nice, soft-spoken man. It is easy to see how he has been successful. To me, he comes across as an easy-going clergyman, though his background is as an attorney.

Now, people are looking more into Johnson's life and his record and Democrats are convinced "MAGA Mike" will be bad news for Republicans in the next election. I think some of the criticism of him is fair and other parts will be weaponized in an unfair, divisive way. Yes, he is indeed very, very religious.I have no problem with that but it does raise many questions about how he might advance the Republican Party. I also note the complete hypocrisy of a religious man and his unwavering support for Donald Trump, who is about as "non-Christian" in his temperament and attitude as it gets. Much is being discussed about just how anti-gay Johnson is and how he has (years ago) written and advocated on behalf of a belief that homosexual activity should be illegal in America. That was a horribly un-American idea then and remains so today. I have no doubt that if Johnson had his way that rights would be taken away from gays and lesbian Americans. However, I also believe that like many others of his religious ilk, he recognizes that ship has sailed and is not going to actively seek to do anything about it.

I am far more disturbed by Johnson's low-key out of public view efforts to organize and assist the cases of those who were trying to prevent the rightful winner of the 2020 Presidential election from taking office. Johnson and his House Republican allies literally booed and yelled at a reporter to shut up when she asked questions about that this week. The Republican Party elected class just does not want to talk about this and wants to forget it was even an issue. They know that so many in their base still continue to believe the election was stolen, even if the educated people in the party, including those who hold office, know better. The so-called "moderate" Republicans who led to Jim Jordan being sunk as a Speaker hopeful and at least Member who claimed he could not vote for an election denier, went along with Johnson. He simply looks and acts the part better than Jordan and that is what politics is about these days.

Johnson has a bad record on Ukraine aid and will put on a show for the base about "blank checks", etc, but I expect he will allow Joe Biden's request for Ukraine funding to come to the House floor where it will pass on a bipartisan basis. There will probably also be a quick deal to avoid a government shutdown. Even the group who threw Kevin McCarthy out of the Speakership seem to have enough goodwill towards Johnson to overlook when he will do what McCarthy did a month or so ago. Substantively, I do not think there will be much difference between Speaker McCarthy and Speaker Johnson, although some hope that he will push harder for a Biden impeachment vote. I also wonder if House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, who lost out on his chance to become Speaker, might be wielding the power behind the scenes.

Anyways, there is a Presidential campaign continuing. As looked certain last weekend, Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips is now actively running against Joe Biden for the Democrat nomination. He had said he wanted other better positioned Democrats to run instead, but they all turned him down. Phillips will be on the ballot in New Hampshire and Biden will not. It will still be a huge upset if Biden does not win via write-in vote. Many Democrats will privately concede that Phillips' campaign which is focused on electability (with the whispered context of age) is correct about the doubts that so many have about the incumbent. Still, I do not think Phillips has much of a chance, minus some sort of major Biden health scare or mega-gaffe and thus, this cannot be seen as good news for their party.

On the Republican side, the last two weeks have seen little noticed candidates Perry Johnson and Larry Elder fold up shop and endorse Donald Trump. There is not really much to be surprised about there. Today's development was more surprising though not entirely unexpected. Facing a severe lack of support and campaign funds, former Vice President Mike Pence suspended his campaign while speaking at the well-timed Republican Jewish Coalition meeting today in Las Vegas. All the other Republican candidates also made appearances.

The former running-mate of Trump and the man who was once a heartbeat away from the Presidency (and who would have likely defeated Joe Biden in 2020) really was in a bad position in this race. After all, a bunch of people he was trying to win over once chanted that they wanted to "hang" him and his former boss called that sentiment "completely understandable." At times in this campaign, the very well rehearsed and scripted Pence said the right things about democracy and foreign policy. I very much wanted to cheer him for those things, but he just cannot break with what he likely knows in his heart about just how bad the Trump Era has been for the Republican Party and the conservative vision of America that Mike Pence believes in. He has been complicit in getting to this point. In leaving the race today, Pence did not endorse a candidate. It remains to be seen if he will. If so, it will almost certainly be either Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. Someone like Chris Christie continues to have a bit of a base in New Hampshire, but the other two are the only ones at this point who have any sort of measurable national support.

Little by little, the fledgling campaigns of DeSantis and Haley have caused the candidates to be going in a little bit more against Trump. DeSantis has now openly hinted that Trump may be showing signs of mental decline. On policy matters though, he remains fairly indistinguishable from the front-runner. Any attempt to run to Trump's right on social issues does not seem to be paying off, although the Florida Governor insists he will surprise people in Iowa. Haley has also been trying to have it both ways on Trump for many months now but she is taking a more forceful approach to disagreeing with Trump (and DeSantis) on foreign policy matters. I may just have to wind up voting for her in the Illinois primary yet, but that is still a long way off. (Frankly, my favorite person in the race is still Asa Hutchinson.)

With so much going on in world affairs and on Capitol Hill, the Republican primary campaign has been virtually non-existent in the public consciousness. Many feel the re-nomination of a Trump is already a done deal and there is not any need for further televised debates. The one bright side to all of this is that I have gotten to see a whole lot less of Vivek Ramaswamy on television lately.