Louisiana Governor Election

Louisiana Governor

Status: Democrat Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Likely Republican/Likely Landry

 

There is so much going on in the world and in America this week that it was only a couple of days ago that I realized that I needed to post a "prediction" on this race before Saturday the 14th, and not wait until later in the month.

While it is pretty unlikely, the technical possibility exists that Louisiana can have a new Governor-Elect tomorrow night. More likely though, the top two finishers of the vote tomorrow will advance to a November 18 runoff, after the other states voting for Governor this year will have already had their contests concluded. If need be, I will alter a prediction before that day.

On Capitol Hill, the Republican Party may be in shambles at the moment, but in deeply conservative southern states, it is far worse to be a Democrat seeking statewide office. Democrats have been lucky and fortunate though the last two cycles to have won Gubernatorial elections. Hopes for a three-peat are pretty slim though, for no other reason that John Bel Edwards, one of an almost extinct breed of socially conservative Pro-Life Democrats is term limited and cannot run again.

Edwards was an upset winner eight years ago in a runoff after a very damaging and divisive contest among three Republicans to advance. The eventual choice, then Senator David Vitter, had his past personal baggage re-emerge as a major issue and he could not unite the party around him. In 2019, the Trump White House went hard after Governor Edwards, but the GOP candidate to emerge as the runoff contender was a neophyte candidate and Trump's appearances in the state seemed to rile up Democrats to turn out to vote, even if they were less than enthusiastic about some of Edwards' policies.

Only one major Democrat candidate is running in tomorrow's all party "jungle primary" and most likely will place second in the crowded field. Some think it is possible though that Shawn Wilson, who stepped down as Edwards' Transportation Secretary to run for Governor could be edged out for a runoff slot by two Republicans, but I will be very surprised if that happens. The party is fairly united around the candidacy of the African-American Wilson, and he has the support of the outgoing Governor, but he is considered well to the left of the incumbent and thus faces a much more challenging electorate. The difference between the two Democrats on the issue of abortion is a stark example.

With the party having a strong chance of regaining the Governorship, many prominent Republicans looked at running for Governor. Both Republican U.S. Senators were mentioned as potential candidates in this off-year election but neither ran, nor did any members of the Louisiana Republican House delegation. (Perhaps one or two of them might be regretting that this month.)

The Republican candidate considered a near shoo-in to advance to the runoff is Attorney General Jeff Landry. For two years years he was a hardline conservative Congressman before a reshuffling of the state's districts put him in the same one as another Republican incumbent who beat him in a December 2012 runoff. Now, over a decade later, and completing his second term as Attorney General, Landry has been given the official endorsement of the state Republican Party and that of former President Donald Trump. Many establishment figures in the state have also decided to throw in with him, sensing an inevitability. Among those officially joining Trump in supporting Landry in advance of the first round is Senator Bill Cassidy,who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial.

 

A Republican State Representative, who had been opposing Landry, recently dropped out and endorsed him, although the former candidate's name will remain on the ballot. There is a possibility that Landry could reach 50 percent of the vote outright and eliminate any need for a runoff. I think that will probably not happen, but those odds are better than that of two Republicans making the runoff.

Some other Republicans did jump into the contest for Governor, but none seem to have generated much momentum. Before the field took shape though, Lt. Governor Billy Nungesser had been seen as a likely strong opponent for Landry, but he decided to seek reelection to his current job instead. Another potential candidate is running instead for Secretary of State. The only others statewide official running is Treasurer John Schroder.who is trying to run as an outsider. State Senate Majority Leader Sharon Hewitt is the only Republican woman running for Governor, but like Schroder has fallen short of even reaching double digits in the polls. One candidate, considered to have the most ties to the "establishment" is relative late entry Stephen Waguespack or "Wags" who had been Chief of Staff to the last GOP Governor and more recently had been the CEO of the state Chamber of Commerce. He has been trying, apparently without much success to tie Landry to outgoing Governor Edwards, and the trial attorneys. It is very possible that conservative activist Hunter Lundy, running as an Independent could finish ahead of all the Republican also-rans.

 

When all factors are taken into consideration, I would expect Landry to finish a few points ahead of Wilson tomorrow, but the two men will advance to a Republican vs. Democrat runoff next month, which will solidly favor Landry. Still though, Landry is probably going to be polarizing enough, even among some Republicans, to maybe not have a complete cakewalk in the runoff.