Kentucky Governor Election

Kentucky Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Leans Democrat

Two Gubernatorial offices will be voted on in a little more than a week. Louisiana has already flipped its Governorship to Republican, without the need for a runoff. However, another very solidly Republican state at the federal level may once again elect a Democrat to the Governorship. If incumbent Andy Beshear is reelected, he would, along with his ticket-mate, incumbent Lt. Governor Jacqueline Coleman, be the only Democrat to win a statewide election this year.

Based on the partisanship our our political process today, Kentucky should be a state that would have a Republican Governor. Many thought Besear, the son of a former Governor, and the then Attorney General, was somehow of a fluke winner in 2019, when he defeated an unpopular and controversial Republican incumbent by a narrow margin. Considering that a Democrat is now President, Beshear should theoretically have an even tougher climb to win another four years. At the time of the Covid pandemic, many of the Governor's actions in terms of lockdowns and restrictions generated a lot of anger. However, he is heading into Election Day with pretty high approval numbers and is in about as good of a shape as any Kentucky Democrat could hope to be.

While Besehear won his May primary easily over nominal opposition, Republicans had a more competitive contest. One of the Democrats who opposed Beshear was a political gadfly who had been the 1999 GOP nominee for Governor. Twelve Republican candidates filed to run but only a handful were viewed as viable. One statewide official, Auditor Mike Harmon, did especially poorly and took less than three percent of the primary vote on way to a fifth place finish, one place behind a suspended attorney. Republicans were relieved when former Governor Matt Bevin, who lost to Beshear in the last election, decided at the deadline not to seek a comeback.

Ultimately, the nomination went to frontrunner Daniel Cameron, who like Beshear four years earlier, was running for Governor as the Commonwealth's Attorney General. Just 37 years old, Cameron had been seen as a rising star in the Republican Party in Kentucky and someone who had gotten national notice. The African-American conservative had worked for and was considered a protege of Senator Mitch McConnnell, long the most powerful Republican in Kentucky. Many thought that Cameron was being groomed to one day replace McConnell in the Senate, but he ran for Governor this year with his old boss's blessing. Considering the bad blood that exists between McConnell and former President Donald Trump, it was noteworthy that Trump also endorsed Cameron. The Attorney General had been given a prominent speaking role at the "virtual" 2020 Republican Convention, speaking on behalf of Trump.

In the primary, Cameron took 48 percent of the vote while state Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles took 22 percent of the vote. Quarles, just a couple of years older than Cameron, attempted to appeal more to the rural parts of the state and was seen as at least somewhat of a more mainstream Republican. In third place with 17 percent of the vote was Kelly Craft, a wealthy businesswoman who had been Ambassador to Canada under Trump, and then chosen by the then President to succeed Nikki Haley as Ambassador to the United Nations. Late in the primary, Craft was endorsed by Florida Governor and current Republican Presidential candidate Ron DeSantis, who had joined some other nationally known conservatives in backing her campaign. Though she had been running as a staunch conservative, the DeSantis endorsement likely hurt her candidacy as so many in the Republican Party were committed to Trump in his battle against "DeSanctimonius", putting aside the fact that Cameron is a protege of "broken down old crow" Mitch McConnell (married to his "China loving spouse.)

Some of the Republican candidates announced their running-mates before the primary. Only several weeks after securing the nomination that Cameron pick State Senator Robby Mills. Almost two decades older than Cameron, Mills was seen as bringing geographical balance to the ticket as well. It is worth mentioning that Governor Beshear is himself is still only 45 years old.

By virtue of his Republican Party label, Cameron cannot be dismissed as a contender in this race. Kentucky is a very conservative state. However, he has struggled to keep up with the advantages of incumbency that Beshear is bringing to this race. While some polls show a tight contest, others show the Democrat well-ahead and Beshear is said to have been much improved as a political communicator as he seeks reelection. Some have speculated that he may one day be a potential Presidential candidate for his party. Personally, I do not think Democrats are going to be that "un-woke" anytime soon to turn to a Southern white male who is perceived as a moderate.

 

On the contrary, Cameron had been criticized for running a lackluster campaign and not raising enough money. He has also struggled with the ability to walk the line of being a pro-Trump Republican and appealing to suburban swing voters who tend to vote Republican over liberal Democrats. It just seems to many in this cycle that Beshear is not seen as nearly as liberal as people like Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden. What might not be getting much discussion is the possibility that some MAGA folks might be reluctant to embrace the candidacy of a black nominee for Governor (who is married to a white woman), and especially one as young as Cameron. At the same time, Beshear is likely to dominate the African-American vote in state, which is already heavily Democrat. Many in the black community were especially angry at Cameron over his role as Attorney General and his office's response to the police killing of Breonna Taylor in Louisville.

Currently, Beshear is focusing on his opponent's opposition to abortion. While many Kentuckians are Pro-Life, Cameron is being painted as someone who would not allow exceptions for rape. This was the main focus of a recently televised Gubernatorial debate and Cameron appeared awkward in attempting to avoid the question as to whether or not he would sign an ant-abortion bill that did not include exceptions.

Right now, I expect Beshear to probably win by high-single digits, which will be closer than what some current polls might be showing, but would be a significantly larger win than his 2019 victory. Keeping the very poor showing of a Louisiana Democrat in that state's recent election, one cannot think that any Democrat can have a Kentucky election in the bag, but it does seem to be trending that way. Daniel Cameron may indeed have a future as a Kentucky Republican office-seeker, but he will likely face backlash over the execution of his campaign in this particular race, and whether it was the wrong one at the wrong time.