Democracy 2024: # 36

This feels like it would have been an exceptionally angsty week for Democrats.

 

A variety of polling data is showing that Joe Biden, the incumbent President, is not very popular at all as he seems reelection. Voters do not feel like things are going well in America and despite the efforts of his backers to praise "Bidenomics" and other matters they consider successes, it does not seem to be getting through. Even more troublesome for them, Biden is in a virtual tie with Donald Trump, the Republican frontrunner, even as the twice impeached former President, whom Biden defeated in 2020 faces more courtroom time than literally anyone in America. Other Republican candidates are also even with Biden, or perhaps as in the case of Nikki Haley, slightly ahead.

The number one problem for Biden is obvious. He is pretty darn old. The soon to be 81 year old President looks every bit his age and then some, and seems to be a step or two slower physically than he was in the last campaign. His is voice noticeably softer and slower than it was a few years ago. Biden has always looked older than he is. When he first ran for the Senate at the age of 29, he looked about 45 then, and that helped put aside what could have been concerns about his age. Now, the problem is in reverse. There are also increasing concerns about Biden and his ethics over many years, related to the business dealings of his son Hunter. Republicans have relentlessly attempted to talk about Hunter for a long time now and it seems like the strategy has worked, at least a bit. News came out this week that Hunter is about to be indicted by the Special Counsel on a gun charge. Others may follow if so and the sitting President of the United States can be expected to be called to testify under oath in a criminal trial by his son's' defense attorneys. This is something Biden will not be able to say no to. After all, he is a Biden.

In looking at polling data, it seems like Biden is under-performing among key Democrat constituencies, including minorities and young voters.Identity politics have been big with Democrats for decades now and the fact is that their candidate, beyond being an octogenarian, is a white male, who also happens to be Christian, heterosexual,and cisgender. None of these things make him "cool" or "diverse" or a symbol of "change." Someone like that will probably not be nominated again by Democrats for a long time (although perhaps Gavin Newsom might try to invoke a metrosexual loophole) but Biden looks to be the candidate for the party in 2024 and turnout could be a concern.

Now, nobody should for a second underestimate the what Democrats will to do ramp up fear over the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House. Trump has been a huge motivating factor for Democrats to turn out in 2018, 2020, and 2022. The same will surely happen in 2024 if Trump is the candidate and these left-leaning voters who do not want Biden to have another term will probably wind up voting for him because as he says, "don't compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative."

Nonetheless, the signs are clearer than ever that concerns about Biden's age are real and a huge problem for his candidacy. Most of the rank and file among Democrats openly say they would prefer he not run. I always thought he would not run for reelection if he won in 2020. I even thought he should have made that clear during that campaign and he would have won bigger. For the first year or so of the Administration, I thought he would eventually say he would not seek another term. The current President is very stubborn though. He has insisted he would run again pretty much from the start and as President has tried, with varying success, to enact sweeping policies, that I believe severely went beyond any mandate he could have claimed to have been given. What he was tasked to do (including from Republicans like myself who forced myself to vote for him last time) was to not be Donald Trump and to get the coronavirus pandemic under control. The latter has pretty much happened, after much confusion and disappointment in the early parts of his Presidency regarding transmission, and vaccines, and mandates, and all of that. His attempt to remake domestic policy turned off many swing voters and the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal debacle, to which Biden callously refused to admit anything wrong happened, has had a permanent mark.

 

So, at this point, knowing how stubborn he is about his age and everything else, I will be very surprised if Biden were to bow out of this campaign. Many conservatives however are convinced Biden will not be on the ballot next November and frankly a lot of Democrats might hope they are right in that regard. The big question would be where Democrats would go from there. With that murky situation factored into the equation, another Biden nomination seems pretty likely, for better or worse for his party.

Considering the fact that Biden is the most unpopular President to be seeking reelection at this point in the cycle since Jimmy Cater, this should be a prime pick up opportunity for the opposition party. Republicans seem intent on once again picking Donald Trump though and frankly the rank and file members of that party think Trump will beat Biden easily. After all, they delusional enough to think he won the last time as well, Seeing Biden's low poll numbers and Trump being basically tied with him in the "corporate media woke polls" have them thinking Trump is in good shape to retake the White House. Of course, they are not realizing that Trump has a ceiling of support that he cannot get past and that the undecideds in these polls are very unlikely to ever decide to vote for Trump. These Trump supporters also do not seem to understand the logistics that will be involved for Trump's future as he will be quite busy as a criminal defendant fairly soon.

For now, the Republican race remains in a holding pattern. Trump looks like a solid favorite. Today, he and Ron DeSantis both visited the same Iowa vs Iowa State football game in the state that will host the first Caucus. If Trump takes Iowa by a solid margin next winter, is the whole thing over? That is really hard to say, but for now, the bottom line is backing Trump is pretty much a solid tenant of reality for many Republicans. Anything said to them about how risky or wrong that could be seems to be going in one ear and out the other.

Numerous Republicans continue to seek the nomination against Trump. Some are realizing that pissing off Trump's supporters might harm them, but they are not getting anywhere trying to avoid pissing them off.

This week former Vice President Mike Pence, now a political opponent of his former running-mate said the Republican Party "did not begin on a golden escalator in 2015."  He also said Republican voters faced a choice. "Will we be the party of conservatism, or will we follow the siren song of populism unmoored to conservative principles?" 

 

Now, I am glad Pence spoke these words. I very much agree with what he said about the "siren song of populism" preached by Trump and his "imitators." I am pretty certain Pence genuinely believes what he said this week too. So do many other mainstream Republicans. However, where we they when needed them to fight this fight back in 2016?  Pence hitched his political wagon to Trump and was his publicly devoted lackey throughout two campaigns and an entire Administration, only publicly demonstrating a conscience and understanding of the Constitution on January 6, 2021.

 

Better late than never Mr. Former Vice President but you played a huge part of getting conservatism, the Republican Party, and the United States itself into this mess. The monster you hope to slay is one you and many others helped create. Good luck to us all.