Democracy 2024: # 32

It looks increasingly like Election Year 2024 will feature both Trump and Biden on trial.

That would be Donald Trump Sr. and Hunter Biden. As much as House Republicans are talking about the possibilities of impeaching the current President and putting him on trial in the Senate, it is doubtful the votes in the Republican majority House would be there. There are at least a dozen Members who are not in safe red districts that would be extremely leery to go that route. These are pretty unprecedented political times that we are living in however and everything about Campaign 2024 seems ominous and yet somehow predictable.

We already know that former President Trump will be on trial, as he attempts to win back the office he was kicked out of in the 2020 election. This coming week, the Grand Jury in Fulton County, Georgia may take action and Trump (and others) are likely to be indicted in the Peach State. This will of course trigger a series of racist and misogynist remarks against the County's Democrat prosecutor by Trump and his allies. On just one of the many other legal fronts, Special Prosecutor Jack Smith is calling for the Washington D.C. portion of Trump's federal trials to begin on January 2 of next year. This would be less than two weeks before the Iowa Caucuses. Trump's legal team is hoping for a far more lengthy delay, putting aside the claims that the defendant is totally innocent. One would think that he and his defenders would want his name cleared as soon as possible during an election campaign, but of course they all know differently.

A major development happened this week in regards to the ongoing legal saga of Presidential son, and frequent White House visitor and Air Force One traveler Hunter Biden. It seems as if his plea deal on tax and gun charges is now off the table and he will have to stand trial and face prison time. This clearly has to be upsetting to his parents and there is no way around the fact that this is very bad for his father politically as he seeks reelection. Of course, the damage is mitigated somehow when your opponent is not an upstanding law-abiding citizen, but Donald Trump.

For many weeks now, Republicans have been railing against Hunter Biden's "sweetheart deal" and were very upset that it was offered. Now, they are upset that it has gone away. They have been calling sometime now for a Special Counsel to be appointed to take over this case. Now, that has happened, and they are upset about that. It seems to me they are upset for the sake of being upset. They do not seem to want an actual justice resolution to whatever it was that Hunter Biden did illegally (and he has admitted to some of it) and if there winds up being any actual criminal ties to the actions of his father, but that they simply want to be able to talk about this for the next year plus.It seems to me they will be able to, but are unwilling to give up the "trump card" of "two systems of justice", etc. etc. In no way was this week's development a good thing for Hunter Biden or Joe Biden, but MAGA Republicans are pretending to be furious and telling each other that this was all done to protect the Bidens and they are laughing about it in the White House. There is some serious cognitive dissonance going on here, or it is all just politics.

This is not to say that there are not some legitimate questions to be asked about this whole mess. Let us deal with the facts though. David Weiss, the U.S. Attorney for Delaware, is a Republican appointed during Donald Trump's term in office. Instead of firing him, Joe Biden kept him on while his son was being investigated. There would have been rightful public outrage if he had been fired. Political opponents of Biden are very confused about what Weiss has been doing for years on this case now. Indeed, it has been a long time. He has said publicly that he had all the authority he needed and nobody was pressuring him to not take any action against Hunter that he felt necessary. Credible whistleblowers close to the case have since said otherwise. Now, Weiss has asked Attorney General Merrick Garland to make him the Special Counsel in this case which would at least in theory give him more authority to be aggressive in a prosecution and to write a final report. It is also true that Special Counsel investigations often take unexpected turns. If Joe Biden were at some point conducting illegal business with his son, that might very well be found out or reported on by Weiss. Then, impeachment talk (or resignation) might become more real. Garland has granted this new authority to Weiss. Some on Biden's team are claiming the Attorney General appointed by the President they love has somehow been compromised by politics. On the other side, people who love Trump, and Trump himself, are saying the U.S. Attorney he appointed cannot be trusted. What it looks like though is that the whistleblowers have been vindicated to some extent. Weiss came to realize he did not have all the authority he needed. Now, he does. This seems like a black eye for the Biden Justice Department led by Merrick Garland. However, the Attorney General was at least willing to change course rather than doubling down.  

 

House Republicans are upset that an ongoing investigation means they may not be able to force him to testify during the election campaign.That might be true,but that concern sounds like they want a political show more than they want Hunter Biden (or his father for that matter) to face whatever may be deserved. Chairman James Comer cannot put Hunter Biden in prison. David Weiss can.

Yes, it does seem odd on the surface that the same person who looks like he botched the plea deal has gotten "promoted" to some extent. I had thought a Special Prosecutor would be the right step to take. GOP Presidential candidate Chris Christie, himself a former US. Attorney had been saying the same thing. If someone new  was being brought in for this role, everything would have to basically start from scratch. There are statute of limitations that might be expiring. Do MAGA Republicans want Hunter Biden to skate from his alleged crimes just because they want to complain about him and his family as a diversion from Donald Trump and his family? It sure looks like it. I say that nobody should be above the law, even if their name is Biden or Trump.

So, what else is there on the political front? I want to wrap this up already this week. The Iowa State Fair has been getting a lot of coverage this weekend and all sorts of Republican contenders show up and flip burgers and eat pork products on a stick. The one candidate who is now there for the food is Christie ironically enough. Ron DeSantis and Trump showed up though. Trump seemed to try to overshadow his (for now) chief rival by flying around in his airplane while DeSantis was campaigning on the ground. Maybe that was just a coincidence. Less of a coincidence are instances of Iowa Trump supporters being disruptive or rude to DeSantis. (Not that I feel sorry for him.) Somebody at the State Fair also told Mike Pence that they were glad he was not hanged. That was probably a Democrat though.

The person who got little coverage this week for some reason is Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips. The interviews he has given have seemed a little awkward. The Democrat has made it clear that he is not the right person to run for President (though he insists he would be a good one) but that competition is necessary for his party and others who are better politically organized than him need to challenge Biden in the primaries. He might not be aware of what happens to incumbent Presidents who face primary challenges when they get to the general election, but this is clearly a sign that Democrats are nervous about Biden in the upcoming campaign (and what might follow) and are hoping for alternatives.Phillips is going out of his way to not name any names,but he has spoken of female candidates and "Governors from the Heartland." Is he a stalking horse for Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan? Where does the incumbent Vice President fit into all of this? We can be certain that Kamala Harris is not going to file to run against Joe Biden. Will Dean Phillips make a trip to South Carolina or anywhere else? He seems to be saying he does not want to but just might have to....

Finally, the first Republican debate is scheduled for August 23rd. Most of the main contenders have now qualified though I think some of the requirements are ridiculous. One of those is the "loyalty pledge" that RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel has been insisting all candidates sign before they are allowed on the stage. Some have now done so and have said they had no issues at all with it. Others are saying that if they do have to sign it, they will not really mean it. This week, Donald Trump who is continuing to publicly play it coy about whether he will show up for the Fox News Debate (and they desperately want him to of course for the ratings) has said he will not sign the pledge.

So, is McDaniel and the RNC going to keep Trump off if he refuses to sign and wants to show up? I will believe it when I see it. This reminds me of the Supreme Court cases where the left insists that religious Christian conservatives put aside their values to do whatever is asked of them but hem and haw when asked if the same should apply to religious Muslims. 

I think Trump has little to gain for showing up for the first debate or any of the others during the primaries. Yet, his ego and desire for attention, and ability to be goaded, may make it hard for him to keep away.  So, if he is not going to sign the pledge, who is going to cave? I am thinking the sacred pledge will be a thing of the past. Ronna McDaniel and so many other Republicans are scared to death politically of Donald Trump and fear crossing him. From what I understand, he called her from Air Force One in Inauguration Day as he was flying to Florida and told her he was leaving the party because of the way he had been treated. He is believed to have said something to the effect of "you people will never win an election again." Soon enough, spineless Kevin McCarthy and others were being very nice to the disgraced former President once again.