Democracy 2024: # 22

Well, at least the "Fiscal Cliff" crisis is officially over for two years. The deal was brokered last Saturday and after being approved in Congress, was signed into law today. Many of the most strident ideologues in both parties cried foul and voted no, although a fair number did go along with what their party leadership had wanted.

Who won the battle though? That is really the inside baseball question that political media and partisan junkies want to know. Both sides are claiming victory and to an extent both can claim to be right. In spite of all the hand-wringing about not getting anything substantial for their side, Speaker Kevin McCarthy does not seem like he is immediately about to lose his job and nobody of note is suddenly emerging to challenge Joe Biden for re-nomination.

My view is that Republicans needed a "win" politically more than Democrats did after the last several years, and to the extent they can claim they got any concessions at all, they probably can be considered the bigger winners. Still though, more Congressional Republicans voted no than Congressional Democrats. Had Republicans produced more yes votes, more Democrats would have voted no, to the deal that Joe Biden signed off on.

It is just about summer now and Republican Presidential candidates are starting to spend more time in the earliest states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. This coming week is expected to officially welcome Mike Pence into the race, as he will become the first former Vice President of the modern era to run against the man he served under. Chris Christie will also formally launch his campaign this coming week and is expected to go "kamikaze"on Donald Trump. I will cheer him on doing that, but I have been suspect of Christie ever since he double crossed Mitt Romney in 2012. Can he at least apologize for helping to enable Trump to get to the White House? Had Christie not endorsed Trump at the point he did in the 2016 primaries, I doubt he would have been nominated. Let us also not forget that North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum will be throwing his hat into the ring. Unlike many others, that hat may contain some of his personal software cash.

The main campaign trail focus of the week that was regarded Trump and Ron DeSantis on the campaign trail. They are both targeting each other as expected. Last week's narrative of the Florida Governor's botched announcement seems to have faded, but he still has a lot of ground to make up against Trump. Of course, a plethora of other hopefuls are standing by hoping both men take each other out. Both men will accurately and correctly call each other hypocrites and phonies many times on the campaign trail and of course will be hypocrites themselves in pointing that out.

The legal news for Trump continues to look more ominous. The CNN, their new graphics package notwithstanding, had an exclusive story regarding an audio tape of a post-Presidential Trump saying he had a classified document that he knew he had not unclassified. Will Trump be running the general election from a prison cell or will the conviction and sentencing merely happen after he loses again? Most likely it will be the latter.

As for DeSantis, of course some of the things that Trump is saying about him are quite juvenile, but so were the DeSantis hero-worship ads of Trump featuring his children in 2018. Now, the chickens have come home to roost. Also, why is DeSantis actually refusing to confirm how his last name should be pronounced? He has been using different versions himself. Maybe he just does not care, and should just say so then. Otherwise, he just gives ammo to Trump in regards to Dee or Duh or Deh.

On the other side of the aisle, the 80 year old incumbent took a tumble on stage in front of television cameras after giving the commencement speech at the Air Force Academy late this week. Thankfully, President Biden was not injured, but it was tough to watch. He has had a few stumbled publicly since becoming President, though this was the worst of them. Both Trump and DeSantis tried to walk a line in mocking what happened but without seeming too cruel. In my view, if you have to equivocate, you have already proven yourself to be a jerk. It cannot be denied though that had Trump fallen on stage or any other recent President for that matter, it would have received near constant replay on cable television and would have been shown far more times than the Biden episode was.

 

 I do not believe being in tip top physical shape is necessary to be President (and Chris Christie better not claim is is either) but the Biden camp continues to be very defensive over questions about his age. Whatever one might think about Biden's mental capacities.it is very obvious that he looks older and physically seems older in regards to his movements than was the case just three years ago. If he were to serve a second term, people should be prepared that he probably will be even less visible than he currently is and will likely spend many days away from cameras at his Delaware homes. 

 

Of course, he has to win reelection first. Opposing Biden for the nomination of his party are controversial gadflies Marianne Williamson and Robert Kennedy Jr. I find it preposterous that Republicans are using the talking point that "Biden won't debate his primary opponents." Let us put aside the reality that no incumbent President has ever debated primary opponents, we can only look back just four years and recall that Donald Trump as an incumbent definitely did not debate his three primary opponents. Unlike the two running against Biden now, William Weld, Mark Sanford, and even Joe Walsh (whom I sent a donation to), had all been elected to public office. Now, it is the 2024 cycle and Trump, no longer an incumbent, may very well refuse to debate his primary opponents against.

There was also a story this week about people wanting outgoing JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon to run for President. The billionaire is giving signals that he may be open to a political future. In the past Dimon has said that he is noinally a Democrat but also has some Republican viewpoints. In this unlikely scenario, he would be far more likely of course to run in the primaries as a Democrat than as a Republican. To my surprise, Jamie Dimon is not Jewish, although apparently his wife is. Go figure. I suppose he might also consider running as an Independent if he truly wants to shake things up.