Democracy 2024: # 20

As negotiations continue between President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy in regards to the annual raising of the debt ceiling, the burgeoning contest to be the person to go up against the politically vulnerable Democrat incumbent is starting to look surprisingly crowded.

To be sure, Donald Trump is still the clear frontrunner to capture his third straight Republican Presidential nomination, but an increasing number of Republican men are either jumping into the race or saying they are seriously considering doing so. They are seeing an opportunity to catch fire among primary voters who may fear (accurately so) that Trump is un-electable in November 2024 or that even Republican voters are sick and tired of his brand of petty personal grievances and a focus on the past. Trump also happens to be coming up on 77 years of age and hardly a generational contrast with the 80 year old Biden. Furthermore, he is already under one indictment, and is expected to face other, more serious ones in the months ahead.

The Republican field thus far has consisted of Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina Governor who was also Trump's Ambassador to the United Nations, and is the one female candidate in the race. The other announced candidates who have gotten the most attention are former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, whom I consider my favorite of the field thus far, along with businessman and "anti-woke" activist Vivek Ramaswamy. While potential candidates including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Senators Ted Cruz of Texas, Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Rand Paul of Kentucky, Josh Hawley of Missouri, Floridians Rick Scott and Marco Rubio, as well as ex-Maryland Governor Larry Hogan have ruled out primary bids, the field of other announced candidates includes names as varied as Larry Elder, Perry Johnson, Steve Laffey, and Corey Stapleton. It would take a serious political junkie to be able to identify most if not all of those people. The six "Jeopardy Masters" contestants would not stand a chance. Would any of those names make to any theoretical debate stage? There is also someone Ryan Binkley running who has a professional looking website. Before ten minutes ago, even I had never heard of him.

 

Then, there is former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton, who has for a while made claims that he intends to run, but has not taken very many active steps. Former Michigan Congressman Mike Rogers (not to be confused with the current toupee wearing hot-tempered Alabama Congressman) might also fit into the category.

This coming week, the field is expected to become far more substantial. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has now officially fired paperwork and will make a formal entrance on Monday. The one Senator in the field, Scott is likely to bring a decent financial warchest to the race as well as the likelihood of considerable GOP establishment support, at least as it relates to his campaign advisors. Scott looking like a very serious contender is a sign that the Haley campaign has just not really taken off at all.

Later in the week, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has consistently run second to Trump in national and state polls is also expected to jump directly into the pool. At one point, after the 2022 midterms, it looked like DeSantis was poised to overtake Trump, but that has changed in a big way as the former President has fired away at his former protege and the Governor has generated a lot of headlines, many negative, especially as it relates to what might be a losing campaign in his state against the Disney Corporation over their alleged "wokeness." For all the bad press that DeSantis has gotten in recent weeks, including many accounts of his personal aloofness, he is going to enter the race with a ton of money. He also is seemingly still managing to pick up endorsements, especially in Florida. Some thought it would be wise for DeSantis to sit this cycle out as he is young enough to wait for Trump to truly be gone from the scene, but one reason he may not be waiting might be attributed to the ambition of his wife Casey, believed to be her husband's top advisor. I can envision it now that Trump will get very personal in attacking Casey DeSantis.

Then, there will be others as well who will probably run. Former Vice President Mike Pence is giving signals that he will run as a full Reagan conservative and has pointed out that he is used to debating his old boss Donald Trump in private. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a one-time Trump ally, is telling people privately he is soon to trade in his seat at the ABC Sunday morning news set for a chance to insult Trump across the country. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu,who would be the most moderate Republican candidate in the field on issues like abortion is saying that he is leaning towards a run. I actually think he will take a pass.

 

This past week, a lot of people were surprised to hear that Rick Perry, a former Texas Governor, who then served in Trump's Cabinet might want to run for a third time. After all, it took Biden three tries to win his party's nomination. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, not exactly a nationally known name, is looking like he plans to run. He would be devote personal resources on a campaign but would be very much a long-shot. To the list of long-shot potentials you can also add Miami Mayor Francis Suarez whom as a Latino would truly make this a mutli-cultural GOP field. Also in that conversation is former Texas Congressman Will Hurd, an African-American, who is sort of a personal favorite of mine.

Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin recently said he will not run for President "this year" but recently released a flashy campaign video touting himself, so perhaps he might be thinking people could turn to him late in the process, and with all the political craziness of the last several years, that might not be too nutty of a thought. Could Governors Kristi Noem of South Dakota or Greg Abbott of Texas or former Governor Doug Ducey of Arizona wind up having similar thoughts? If this is truly going to become a thing, nobody should forget about Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia, who defied the odds and easily beat back the intra-party opposition of Trump in 2022.

Finally, if former Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney were to get into the race, I would pledge my support on Day One. I mean, unless Senator Mitt Romney of Utah runs.

These are a lot of names. It is a shame that Harold Stassen of Minnesota is no longer with us. If something happens to Trump, we might also have to deal with a Don Jr. or a Tucker Carlson. Maybe Marjorie Taylor-Greene or Matt Gaetz might take their insanity to a larger platform. In George Santos's mind, he has already been President.

The conventional wisdom will remain that this will come down to Trump vs DeSantis and that Trump will prevail. Maybe so but there are a lot of questions regarding what a large field may be. Would the anti-Trump vote so splintered only serve to re-nominate Trump? That will be what DeSantis will likely say as he will be pushing on the electability angle. This past week though showed a late DeSantis endorsement for a Kentucky Gubernatorial candidate wound up meaning nothing as the Trump endorsed candidate won that primary as expected. It has to be noted tough that Attorney General Daniel Cameron, while happy to have had Trump's endorsement in Kentucky, is a Mitch McConnell protege, and Trump truly hates McConnell. In further bad news for DeSantis, a Democrat beat his Republican backed candidate for Mayor of Jacksonville, Florida's largest municipality. That city will no longer have a Republican Mayor for the first time in a long time and neither will Colorado Springs, Colorado.

I could also go on a tangent and talk about how the nomination an African-American woman, considered a more moderate option to be Mayor of Philadelphia proves my theory about how black Democrats these days are voting in these sort of races with skin color very much in mind. So, while the heavily Democrat cities of Chicago and Los Angeles elected black Democrats over more moderate white Democrat opponents, Philadelphia joined New York in electing (or at least nominating thus far) black Democrats who were more moderate over more liberal non-black alternatives. I will chose to be grateful I suppose that Philadelphia will not have the most disastrous Mayor possible. I continue to fear for Chicago.

Back to the national scene though, this past week and the losses of Mayorships show that Republicans are struggling everywhere that might be considered urban or suburban and no matter how strong the party is in rural areas or small towns, that is not going to be a formula for success. Perhaps a non-Trumpist candidate or someone who unlike DeSantis is not focused on exploiting cultural divides might find a way to break through the Presidential primary pack. For now, that seems like a huge ask.