Democracy 2024: # 16

In many ways, it is more fun for me to write about American Idol than the unfolding contest for the American Presidency. There will be some similarities in the process though before all is said and done.

It is hard to say who the current Idol front-runners are this year but in the race for the White House, they remain Joe Biden and Donald Trump. In this rematch, it is hard to see a scenario where despite all of Biden's clear and obvious political vulnerabilities, he might lose to Donald Trump. Some fear that a potential Independent candidacy could shake the foundations of such a contest. For now, my thoughts in regards to that is "so be it." There is a long way to see what might happen.

Right now, Trump might still be under indictment but at least the actor who has most famously portrayed him on Saturday Night Live looks to be off the hook. Charges against Alec Baldwin have reportedly been dropped in New Mexico in regards to the shooting death that occurred on his movie set. Like Trump, Baldwin is a controversial figure in many regards (though just an actor in his case) and has said some things that are hard to believe about what transpired on the set of "Rust." Still, the particular manslaughter charges against him seemed like they would be difficult to prove in court and perhaps were politically motivated by a special prosecutor, a Republican. Baldwin (unlike one of his less famous brothers) is a longtime liberal and of course Trump hates him. It is also being said, not unreasonably so, that the charges brought against Trump by a Democrat prosecutor might be hard to prove in a New York court.

Trump still gets mocked regularly on Saturday Night Live, even after Baldwin has moved on from the guest job. Does Joe Biden, the sitting President even get parodied on SNL anymore? I think it has been a while, even though there is plenty of material that could be used. That is in spite of the fact that it is now very obvious that Biden has been avoiding formal press conferences, as his predecessors did far more frequently, and after a series of gaffes and statements that needed to be walked back, does not really do formal interviews either. The White House says that reporters are allowed to shout questions at Biden as he gets on the helicopter for instance.

After much insider chatter, it now appears that Biden will formally kick off his reelection campaign this upcoming week with a video announcement. I assume a formal campaign logo and website will also appear online and I expect that the name "Harris" will once again appear under his as the ticket seeking to be renominated in Chicago next summer, assuming the Windy City is not overrun by hoodlums, whom the new Mayor will make excuses for. It will be a big story of course if Harris is not given a pro-formal vote of confidence.

 

Of course Biden will be renominated against the likes of Marianne Williamson and Robert Kennedy Jr., who in a rambling Boston speech formally entered the race for a job one uncle once held and his father and another uncle ought sought. Kennedy is leaning heavily on his family name with signs made up saying "I'm a Kennedy Democrat." He also appears to be an anti-Ukraine Democrat, in addition to being an anti-vaccination Democrat. Still the name Kennedy itself is worth several points in the polls. Die-hard MAGA folks will find much to like about Kennedy Jr. and some might even fantasize about him sharing a ticket with Trump.

 

In regards to Presidential reelection campaigns over the past 50 years, it happens to be a fact that all incumbents who have faced a primary challenge, even not so serious ones, have lost their bid to hold the job, and all incumbents who did not face a challenge worth mentioning in most media, won reelection. Those who have won were Reagan, Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama. Those who lost were Ford, Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Trump, all who were challenged. So, there it is, four and four. At this point, Biden is in the same category as the four who faced a challenge and lost. He will look to break that streak.

There may be other matters on Biden's mind this upcoming week. There continues to be a lot of questions regarding the ongoing criminal investigation of his son Hunter. An IRS employee has come forward anonymously to allege that the Biden Administration may be trying to interfere. Needless to say, if that were true, it would be a immense deal and potentially an impeachable offense. This week though, younger Biden's attorneys will be meeting with Department of Justice officials That could mean a variety of things, but it certainly signify that charges are imminent. If that happens, it might take a huge toll personally on President Biden and would be a distraction to a reelection campaign, let alone the ongoing Administration.

On the Republican side, it is very clear that Trump's indictment has helped him politically among base voters as many who looked willing to jump to Ron DeSantis are now back with Trump. This includes almost all of the Florida's Republican Congressional delegation. The headlines for DeSantis have been pretty bad and he is getting pounded in the media by all sides on matters related to his preposterous War on Disney to  his seeming inability to bond with people on a personal basis. There is a long way to go, an DeSantis has not even announced of course, but the first stage of the campaign has not gone well for him. Of course, Florida resident Trump, whom is more responsible than anyone else for DeSantis becoming Governor and on the path to his particular brand of "in your face" politics continues to attack him by any means necessary. He released a statement saying that DeSantis is a bad Governor and Florida is in horrible shape. The voters apparently disagreed last fall when the Governor easily won a second term, but the act of Trump turning on his former apprentice sure takes much of the shine of the luster of DeSantis and his current standing.

Oh, another candidate got into the Republican race this week. He is Larry Elder, the longtime writer and talker who ran as the top Republican in the California recall Gubernatorial election a couple of years ago. This is now the first time that the Republican Party has had two announced African-American Presidential candidates in the same cycle. One of whom, Tim Scott, happens to be a United States Senator, likely the only Senator that will be seeking the nomination of a party out of office  There are also two Indian-Americans in the field this year. The last time the nomination was open on the Republican side, two Cuban-American Senators ran, but no Latinos are competing this time around. 

Amid all the Presidential developments, and Supreme Court action, and unrest in Sudan, gun violence was once again pretty much the big story of the week. Unlike the accidental but irresponsible Alec Baldwin fatal shooting on the movie set, this week saw a host of stories about people who shot others on purpose, in the guise of self-defense.

The biggest story was all over the news. Thank goodness 16 year old Ralph Yarl is alive and will be ok, The President would be right to invite him to the White House and roll out the red carpet. In Kansas City, Missouri, the African-American teen, attempting to pick up his younger brothers, accidentally knocked on the wrong door, and was fired upon twice by a fearful 84 year old white man who shot first and asked questions never. After a delay in charges being issued, that individual was rightfully charged with crimes and will likely spend the rest of his life in prison. What happened to the young man who was shot was inexcusable and there was a racial component at play, even if not a planned out deliberate action According to the defendant's grandson, the shooter has somehow been compromised internally by right-wing media and conspiracy theories. I assume that will all be a part of the court case, since he has plead not guilty. Knocking on the wrong door is something that can happen to anyone and probably has happened to most people. He definitely did not attempt to break in or anything of that sort. This ought to be chilling to the people who still go door to door canvassing for political candidates, as I did for many years, that they might ring the wrong doorbell.

Due to the racial component, this story received the most attention but was not the only or even more serious example. In New York, a young woman was killed after pulling into the wrong driveway. In North Carolina, the racial roles were reversed when a black man shot his white neighbors, including a six year old girl. after a basketball rolled into his yard.

This is all beyond crazy stuff. Without a doubt, I support the right of citizens to own a gun and to defend themselves, their families, and their property when circumstances warrant. None of these instances came remotely close though. It is understandable that people are fearful of being victims of crime but paranoia is a dangerous thing. Nobody has the right to shoot somebody, especially an unarmed person, just because you fear they might be a threat or you are otherwise having some sort of dispute with them, such as a conflict on the roads.

There is so much going on in America these days that is troublesome and none of these stories are going to be helpful to Americans who legitimately support the Second Amendment. Of course, the overwhelming majority of gun owners are law-abiding and responsible, and in cases have successfully saved their own lives or that of other innocent victims by shooting a bad person with a gun. We have so much conflict in our society these days and politics plays a part of it. The Coronavirus Pandemic and the reaction to it have continued to contribute to a lot of mental health problems.

None of us can claim to know the answer to these problems, but in the three examples mentioned, all of the shooters deserve to be tried and if convicted be locked up. Adults should have the right to own guns, but with that comes a whole lot of responsibility.