Democracy 2024: # 11

This has already been the most unusual first few months ever of a Presidential election cycle.

While there has been much media attention paid over the past week plus to bank failings and debates over bailouts, the far more interesting topic is if Donald Trump will be fingerprinted and mugshot this week in his native New York City.

He is now saying he will be "arrested" this coming Tuesday and is calling for his supporters to "protest." While it appears an indictment is imminent, we will have to see if his own prediction comes true. Of course, his standard of "arrest" will really be a voluntary turning himself in. He is unlikely to be handcuffed or perp-walked, although there are scores of people in America and around the world who would love to see that happen. It would be a pretty shocking development if a New York judge will deny him bail, even if there are concerns that he might incite violence. After all, he does have a history of that.

Briefly turning to other news, it has to be said that Trump and Vladimir Putin now have something else in common, beyond both believing Ukraine should surrender and America and not come to their aid. The International Criminal Court has put out an arrest warrant for Putin. Whatever authority might be able to carry that out is needless to say unlikely to be able to take him into custody for his war crimes. So, while the Trump campaign may try to make money off of merchandise showing the forthcoming Trump mugshot, they will not be able to make it a double feature with Putin's on a t-shirt as well.

While Trump is likely not in a good place emotionally over what he might be facing this week, he clearly is banking on an arrest galvanizing his supporters politically and thwarting his opponents in the Republican Party. To my dismay, there is indeed a cult-like mindset when it comes to Trump that one must oppose any effort to hold him responsible for anything in order to "own the libs." Any attempt to hold Trump to the same standard as any other American is a "partisan witch-hunt." It is definitely possible there may be violence or disturbances happening if Trump is formally indicted. The Manhattan prosecutor is working to take steps to protect the courthouse where Trump would have to appear. Die-hard defenders of Trump should keep in mind that the last time he asked people to protest on his behalf, a whole lot of them wound up arrested and sentenced to prison time. He did not pardon anyone during the brief period of time when he could have, so it will be interesting to see if a lot of other MAGAphiles wind up put behind bars over something they may believe they are being asked to do, even if the former President is not "locked up", at least in the short-term.

My personal view is that if Trump did anything illegal, he ought to be charged for it. Nobody is above the law and since he is someone who has for generations now portrayed himself as the paragon of "law and order". he should have to reap what he sows. We will have to see the particular charges that might come down against him in Manhattan. Many prominent people, including some who are no friends of Trump think that this campaign finance case related to "hush money" paid to Stormy Daniels might be a tough one to prove in court. Recent history recalls that former Democrat Presidential candidate John Edwards, a one time Vice Presidential nominee, was charged with something similar but not convicted. Everyone knew that Edwards had fathered a child with his mistress and he admitted he tried to conceal that in order to keep his wife and the public from finding out. If nothing else, Trump's lawyers may have to admit that he did something with Stormy ("Horseface" as he puts it) Daniels that he had sworn publicly never happened. Bill Clinton once found himself of course in a similar situation.

Needless to say, any prosecution of Trump will be painted by him and his supporters as "weaponization" of justice. The political reality is that a lot of people will believe that and this might help Trump in the short-term. I will not go as far as someone like Elon Musk who believes that being charged in Manhattan will cause Trump to win the Presidency "in a landslide." I do not think that Donald Trump can ever win a general election, but I also believed that during his 2016 run.

The Manhattan District Attorney is Alvin Bragg, a very liberal African-American Democrat who like many other big city prosecutors came to win his election with the financial backing of George Soros. Like many of those prosecutors, he has also been accused of being weak on violent crime. Thus will all be spoken of frequently. Considering all the other pending cases and charges involving Trump, I do think that the particulars of this case might somehow pale in comparison and thus help the disgraced twice impeached ex-President politically. The Justice system is supposed to be blind though. Someone should not be charged for specious reasons, which is what the claim of MAGA world will be, but the reality is someone should not be spared just because they are powerful and influential.

If things happen as expected, there will be much pressure on Republicans to speak out on the matter and come to Trump's aid. Already today, his former Vice President Mike Pence has done so. This comes just a week after Pence made some pretty blistering statements about Trump's culpability on the January 6th matter before the Gridiron Club. Pence chose an event that is on the record, but closed to recordings, to make his most personal comments yet on Trump and said history will "hold him accountable." Either Pence feels that being this forthright is his only chance of Presidential campaign relevance or maybe he has decided this might not be the right time to run. Pence can only go so far though in pissing off the conservative base, as clearly he is now expressing displeasure over the expected Manhattan charges.

The spotlight will be on Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in a big way. Many polls have shown his standing in comparison to Trump among Republicans has already deteriorated as his former mentor paints him as a "RINO" and a "globalist"and has even tried to paint him as a possible pedophile. Earlier in the week, Trump issued a public statement in which he inferred that Charlie Crist, the Democrat that DeSantis recently defeated in a landslide, had been the better Governor.

DeSantis will almost certainly have to stand with Trump regarding these charges. Some people online have even concocted a scenario in which Trump holes himself up in Mar-A-Lago, while the state's Governor Ron DeSantis actively fights any effort to have him extradited to New York. That is not going to happen though. The Secret Service will deliver Trump to the courthouse in Manhattan and fiery statements coming from Trump will re-commence. Trump will continue to attack his new state's Governor, perhaps over the disgusting revelation that DeSantis once used his own three fingers to eat chocolate pudding.

If Trump ever goes to prison, perhaps his status as a former President will get him extra pudding privileges along with a plastic spoon to go along with it. That is all a long way off though. What we know is that there may be some historic and significant legal developments next week. There are questions as to if the judge might decide Trump is a flight-risk and take away his passport in order to stop him from fleeing the charges to a foreign land.

I very much hope they let him keep his passport. If he ran away to a different country, that could be the best possible outcome to this entire mess.