Democracy 2024: # 21

On Capitol Hill, this Memorial Day Weekend, the focus has been on negotiations over raising America's debt ceiling. Within the past few minutes, the news seems to be that a deal has been reached in principle. That is of course a positive development because nobody really wanted to see just how disastrous a default would have been for the country.

Details of this deal will be forthcoming but it will seem to some like House Republicans managed to get the best out of a Democrat President. I am more likely than not to agree with that perspective, but many will go the other direction and say that the President got the best deal  If Republicans are seen as "winning" that would be a difference of how similar standoffs played politically between past Democrat Presidents and Republican Speakers. Credit has to be given to Speaker Kevin McCarthy who while he still may have a tenuous hold on his job, have at least on this matter, been more adept than expected. A lot of Democrats, including those in the White House itself, seemed to think they would be able to roll over Republicans over this standoff, but are now said to have been frustrated to how things have transpired. After all, House Republicans were not even expected to pass a bill to raise the debt ceiling. Once they did, they had a huge strategic advantage forcing the President to negotiate with them.

Of course,  ideologues on both sides will be unhappy with any political give and take and some House Republicans and House Democrats will vote no early next year. The bill will pass though on a bipartisan basis and the debt ceiling is expected to be raised for two years. Somehow, despite all the huge political divisions in America, the democratic process seemed to work here, no matter how ugly it might have been. Of course, many people online will bemoan that anybody gave in on any matter.

There will be information to be learned and spin will be delivered as to which side won out on the "work requirement" fight. This particular matter had Democrats in what I believe was a very hard position to defend politically. For one thing, Joe Biden had once supported work requirements for able-bodied welfare recipients. The proposal put forward by Republicans was very limited in scope in terms of work requirements, but the Democrat base was completely opposed to that.

Perhaps the answer as to "who won" will be clearer next week and I can pass a more educated judgment at that time.

The Republican race for President was the other big story of the week. As expected two candidates got into the races, with very different reviews of their "launch."

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott got positive reviews for his announcement speech, despite having to overcome a malfunctioned microphone at one point. Scott is way back in the polls for now and will need other candidates to somehow take each other out in order to emerge as a compromise choice.

I have always respected and admired Scott, although like most other Republicans, I cannot overlook the fact that he stood by Donald Trump over the past six years. Now, he is running against Trump, albeit somewhat gingerly, and the campaign of the former President seems to not be too concerned, as they believe that Scott's presence in the race will only hurt the candidacy of Ron DeSantis and thus help them.

Scott is an intelligent smart Senator with an inspiring life story who is eminently qualified to be President. With that in mind, I found some of his rollout speech to be sort of corny and even cringeworthy in parts. While he is known for his friendly good-natured attitude, the Senator seemed to go out of his way to be sort of a rah-rah cheerleader in the speech. I suppose that is better than than "Midnight in America" message that is part of Trump and DeSantis's appeal but it almost felt like Scott was going out of his way to be the "cool black dude" for a primary electorate that is overwhelmingly white and contains many people who are very much wanting to vote for a black guy to prove to the world that they are not racist. I understand what Scott was trying to do, but I think he is more substantive than that personally and the the Presidency is a more serious endeavor than doing Hulk Hogan "let me hear you" ear gestures to the audience.

The announcement of Ron DeSantis did not go as well, to the delight of his critics on the left and in Trumpworld alike. Indeed, it was a pretty poor rollout, but I doubt the average American voter cares about those sort of things nearly as much as the politically attuned do. I will start off though by questioning the DeSantis campaign image the day before the website of an alligator (definitely a Florida alligator) waiting just below the water's surface. Was he trying to say he is a "swamp figure?" What that symbolism even considered?

A commentator on Fox News noted the irony of DeSantis who is running on how he kept Florida "open" during the pandemic chose to do a peak-shutdown like "conference call" with Elon Musk to formally get into the race. This was a very odd choice that was marred by numerous technical difficulties. Of course, the blame goes to Twitter's tech capacity but it was the choice of the DeSantis campaign to outsource how they first got their message out to the public. Once the glitches were cleaned up, the Florida Governor who was not on camera, read from prepared remarks in the guise of answering questions. The topics of this "Twitter Space" event seemed to focus on tech-related issues that likely do not really mean that much to the average Republican primary voter, who is probably too old to care much about Twitter. The whole thing was roundly panned and Trump of course milked it for all he could. DeSantis has since done a few interviews with very friendly interrogators and apparently has no plans for a formal announcement speech in his hometown or elsewhere.

 

For now, it looks like a two person race with Trump leading DeSantis, but the latter being the only one seeing having a chance to overtake the former President. Of course, I am not thrilled with that to say the least, but from an entertainment perspective, the battle between the two men might get quite severe. That will delight Democrats of course.

 

For the first time, DeSantis is answering back to Trump's attacks and his making it clear that he plans to run to Trump's right. He is saying that Trump is not the same guy who was when he first ran and while he did a good job for three years, he eventually "turned the country over to Dr. Fauci" and that millions of lives were destroyed in the process. I do not agree with the substance of that but it be a weakness for Trump among conservatives. DeSantis is also positioning himself to the right of Trump on issues like abortion and the criminal justice reform that Trump signed as President and talked about frequently in an attempt to appeal to black voters. He is also criticizing Trump for not siding with him on his battles with Disney.

Needless to say, Trump thinks DeSantis (or whatever nickname he prefers that day) is a disloyal scumbag. I do not think there is anyway he could ever support him if somehow DeSantis were to win the nomination, which of course should make Democrats feel warm and fuzzy. The specific attacks on DeSantis will be inconsistent to astonishing. Despite all the video tape that exists over the two men praising each other on Covid measures, this will be a big part of the fight. Trump claims that DeSantis "shut everything down" and that more people died from Covid than nearly anywhere else, including New York. Well, for one thing, Florida is the third most populous state. It also is hard to understand why people would believe Trump's assertion than shutdown measures at the height of Covid cause more people to get Covid instead of less. People who are in the Trump cult will go with just about anything he says of course. Today, with Memorial Day Weekend underway,  people associated with Trump's campaign seem to be attacking DeSantis for having served in the military. Go figure.

Right now, it seems very likely that Trump, already under indictment (in a weak case) in New York City, is going to be indicted by the Justice Department over classified documents sometime in June or July, as more details of attempts to cover up the matter are alleged. He also is likely to be indicted in Fulton County in August for trying to overthrow the 2020 Georgia Presidential election results. He will be very busy defending himself leading up to the general election and then possibly afterwards.

Will the disgraced ex-President be held accountable by juries or by the electorate or perhaps both? Will it even matter to him. These are the underlying issues of the 2024 campaign, even as an unpopular incumbent Democrat President seems to stumble along. Today in Texas, something happened to a Republican officeholder than has never happened to Trump. Someone was held accountable by his own party.

The Texas House of Representatives, controlled by Republicans, voted to impeach Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, a controversial figure who has long had ethical clouds surrounding him. Paxton is now suspended from office but could be reinstated if two thirds of the Texas Senate does not vote to convict him. It might be very hard for that to happen, but the underlying message of Republicans standing up to Paxton should not go unnoticed.

Paxton is associated with the Trump wing of the party and both he and the former President are promising retribution against the Texas "RINOS" behind the impeachment. There is a side issues over whether or not the Texas House Speaker was recently drunk when presiding over the body last week.(It seemed like he might have been) and there are clearly major divides within the Lone Star State GOP, but the Republican House members who voters to impeach Paxton are certainly not "RINOS."

For now, I will take heart that actual Republican elected officials assessed a political risk and still went ahead and did what they thought was right.