Democracy 2024: # 34

For about a half hour on Thursday evening,the J in Donald J. Trump stood for Jail.

The 45th President was processed in the County (of Fulton) Jail sort of like how the Elvis song goes. However,"Sleepy Joe" was not blowing on the slide trombone. Eighteen other defendants also made the trip to Atlanta with all but one reaching bail agreements and leaving shortly thereafter. The supposed billionaire businessman utilized the services of a bail bondsman for the first time in his life in order to walk out of the jail as a free man. Trump also had his first ever mugshot taken and scowled defiantly to the camera. Soon after, this image was for sale on Trump campaign websites under the heading "Never Surrender." Ironically enough though, at the moment that photo was taken, the angry man had just literally surrendered, as he had three previous times in recent months. Then, for the first time since leaving office, the ex-President posted to his account on the social media platform now ridiculously known as X. How fitting.

 

The "Jailhouse Rock" reference would be appreciated more by disgraced former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, who idolized Elvis and got arrested while in office. He would go on to be imprisoned before his sentence was commuted by a President Trump. The one-time liberal Democrat is now a Trump acolyte as should be expected for someone like Blago.

There are a lot of things that happened both at home and abroad this week but I certainly do not have the time or wherewithal to delve into them all. Instead, I will focus on the events most directly related to the 2024 Presidential election. Trump's multiple legal fronts are certainly a big part of the story. In Atlanta, some defendants are asking to exercise their rights to a "speedy trial" while Trump himself wants to delay these proceedings as long as possible. If some defendants get a trial as early as this October, the government will have to reveal their case and their evidence in a way that could be beneficial to the defense of Trump and others. It will all be televised though for the nation to see as the next election inches closer.

The Atlanta case has gotten most of the headlines over the past couple of weeks. Before that, it was the federal case in Washington D.C. regarding Trump's attempts to steal the 2020 election after the fact. I sort of hope people do not forget about the Mar-A-Lago case involving classified documents. That seems to be the most cut and dry legal case that could make Trump a felon, but its outcome is not likely to be decided before the next election.

The other big story was of course the first Republican debate which took place in the convention city of Milwaukee Wednesday night on the Fox News Network. As co-moderator Brett Baeir said, Trump was the "elephant not in the room." After the debate, a one-time Trump ally named David Urban, who is now a CNN analyst said on those airwaves what I was thinking after watching the debate. “I think tonight proves that you don’t need Donald Trump to be at a debate to have a shitshow." 

 

While some substantive issues were discussed there was so much audience hooting and hollering and booing. It sounded and felt like a professional wrestling event or perhaps a tamer version of the old Jerry Springer Show. There have been many combative Presidential primary debates in both parties in the past but the Trumpization of politics feels more complete. Some of these Republican candidates knew they had to act like Trump in order to get positive attention. Many of them had their dedicated supporters in the crowd to cheer them on and boo the opponents who criticized them, but many of the large audience were vocally pro-Trump, perhaps even if they were their in theory to support another primary candidate. All of this cheapened the event.

 

I would say that Will Hurd won the debate in my view for not being there but that is not a totally serious statement. Perhaps Glenn Youngkin won? That is something that may be determined many months from now. Eight candidates took part, while a couple of others like Perry Johnson and Francis Suarez who said they had qualified, must not have. I agreed with at least something said by every one of the eight candidates. I also disagreed with at least something said by all eight. I came away with positive impressions (at least in a politically transaction sense) of two of them, while really disliking two different ones. The other four, I was both frustrated with at times, but at least happy when a couple of them took it to the ones I disliked the most. All things considered, it was not a good night for the Republican Party. It still cannot be forgotten that the likely nominee of the Democrats remains extremely vulnerable in a political sense. The Republican Party could in theory certainly win this Presidential election, but the way things are headed now, that appears to be a long-shot.

I cannot think of anything better than simply listing all the candidates who took part in the debate in alphabetical order and giving some impressions on their performance.

Doug Burgum- The North Dakota Governor injured himself severely playing basketball the day before the debate and it was in doubt if he would be able to take part. I give him a lot of credit for showing up at the arena the Milwaukee Bucks play in with crutches and standing for the event. I do not know if would be considered a "Willis Reed moment" though. He had a good line about how he took "break a leg in Milwaukeee"too literally.

Burgum was substantive and tried to focus on China being the number one issue of the campaign. The multimillionaire talked a lot about his "small town" roots and values. Conservatives love to hear that stuff these days. Some think all the problems in America are because of  the big cities. He also defended the concept of states and not the federal government making decisions in regards to abortion policy. He was a little shaky in terms of his presentation but mostly made a strong impression. The issue for him is that few people really even care who he is.

Chris Christie- Trump not being there took away Christie's foil and thus entire rationale for being in this campaign and on the debate stage. The crowd was still there to boo him but that did not seem to rattle him at all. For the first half of the debate, the moderators did not mention Trump and as such Christie did not get to talk about him. When he did, I thought he was very forceful and I of course agreed with his assessments. Most were expecting the former New Jersey Governor to have attacked Trump far more than he did. I would have liked to see that too, but he did not really have the opportunity. Instead, he focused on his past credentials and his differences with the Biden Administration. He also had to deal with a time wasting question about UFOs of all things.

Christie forcefully defended Mike Pence's actions on January 6, 2021 at one point and barely took issue with Ron DeSantis on anything. However, he did have a pretty strong pushback against Vivek Ramaswamy. For him and some others on the stage, that seemed to be as much personal as politically strategic. They do not like Vivek and for good reason.

Ron DeSantis- The good news for the Florida Governor is that he did not commit any major gaffes.He might have gotten a chance to introduce himself to the voters looking for the main non-Trump alternative.However, the fact that he was basically a non-factor in the debate is not a good sign for his fledgling campaign. I do note that unless I have been missing something, DeSantis has stopped using the word "woke" and did not talk about his fights with Disney. This seems to be part of his campaign retooling.

The fact that the other candidates did not really attack him and instead went after Ramaswamy is pretty telling though. DeSantis has been falling in the polls to the benefit of the 38 year old newcomer and it sort of feels like the others have reached the determination that DeSantis is not even a threat to them. Many are overlooking him in trying to be the non-Ramaswamy en route to being the non-Trump in the hope that somehow they will advance to become the non-Biden.

The Governor's weakest moments was his equivocation and eventual meek admission that he believed Mike Pence did the right thing on January 6. Kudos to Pence for forcing DeSantis to make the concession, but Pence having to do so did feel a little bit desperate on his behalf. At least Pence was there to try to make a stronger case for himself than DeSantis just trying to get through the evening awkward head bobs and fake smiles aside.

Nikki Haley- The conventional wisdom is that the former South Carolina Governor and ex-Ambassador to the UN might have helped her candidacy the most and I tend to agree. As a Pro-Life candidate, she gave the most nuanced, politically defensible statement on the abortion divide in America. She also criticized Republicans for adding to the debt and admitted that Donald Trump is the most unpopular politician in America. The only woman on stage had to raise her voice to argue with Ramaswamy, her fellow first generation Indian-American who was  standing at the the next podium, but did so forcefully and unflinchingly. 

Haley recognized that she needs to do something dramatic to break through the pack and at least brought that fire to the stage. Maybe it will help her. Maybe not.

Asa Hutchinson- I guess my small campaign contribution to him helped after all. The former Arkansas Governor did make the debate stage. The qualification standards for the next debate will be stricter, so this may have been his one chance on the national stage. Asa was the first to criticize Trump on the evening unprompted, but largely was an afterthought. He just does not have the kind of combative personality necessary to fight for more time and nobody attacked him, so he did not get time to respond. Still, Hutchinson looked and sounded like the kind of actual Republican I grew up supporting. Right now, that feels like a bygone era.

Mike Pence- At least he came there with a purpose. Yes, it might have felt desperate in some places, but Pence is without a doubt in a politically desperate situation. It have been odd for a man who was once a fast-food addled heartbeat away from the Presidency to fighting on a debate stage with a 38 year old novice whom even political junkies had never heard of until a few months ago, but Pence did so well.

As usual, Pence gave very rehearsed canned answers that he wanted people to think were spontaneous but he actually did seem to be thinking on his feet at others and he forcefully fought for more time and had the most overall mic time of any candidate. Pence also played up his Christianity and religiosity in a clear attempt to try to appeal to Evangelical voters in Iowa and other places. (I still wonder how he was able to put his religious values aside for so long in subservience to Trump, but yes, at least he did the right thing on January 6th...)

While Pence and Haley (along with Christie) were in strong agreement over the need for the U.S. to continue to support Ukraine (with DeSantis and Ramaswamy the only ones taking the opposite view), the two former Trump Administration colleagues disagreed over what tact the party should take over the politically charged issue of abortion. Haley accurately pointed out that it would be impossible for a President to sign a national bill to ban abortion at 15 weeks or 6 weeks because the votes will not be there in Congress to pass it. Pence (along with Tim Scott) were insistent that this was a moral issue that the federal government must make right for the people in all the states, even the heavily blue ones. Somehow, they overlook the political reality of the votes not being there. Pence told Haley that "consensus is the opposite of leadership." Perhaps that is true to some extent, but Haley should have retorted "losing elections is the opposite of winning elections."

Vivek Ramaswamy- Without a doubt, he had the most polarizing evening of any candidate. Those who knew of him and liked him will have liked his debate performance. While there is no doubt that he has risen as a candidate, the question still is just how many people who like him and will cheer him on still plan to vote for Donald Trump. More of them are probably now calling for Ramaswamy to be Trump's next running-mate. This is a candidate who speaks "fluent MAGA" and that is what he is basing his candidacy on. He has apparently been a talented opportunist his entire life and very much intends to be famous off of this run.

Others who were introduced to the first time candidate (who is not even a registered Republican in Ohio where party registration is typical), they were perhaps quite turned off by his pompous words and arrogant behavior. Personally, I already disliked him and did so even more after the debate. Most of the other candidates apparently shared this view which is why they seemed to go out of their way to fight with him. After all, he declared himself the only person on the stage "not bought and paid for." Somehow, the Fox News moderators let him be the only candidate to not be asked about Mike Pence's actions on January 6th. He would have said something different than the others and many in the crowd would have cheered him for doing so.

Complete with isolationist foreign policy views, Ramaswamy is basically the darling of the wing of the Republican Party that elevated Ron Paul to cult-like status in 2008 and 2012 during his failed GOP primary runs. Somehow inexplicably, these libertarian types came to appreciate the trolling nature and disruptive instincts of Trump in 2016 and have been with him ever since. I envision these Paulbot turned Vivekbot types to be heavily skewed to young males who spend a lot of time playing video games like "Call of Duty" or "Fortnight." The people interviewed in post-debate focus groups who liked Vivek seemed to confirm that for me.

Tim Scott- Was he even there? Days later, his debate performance seems even more forgettable. Even more so than DeSantis, he seemed content to coast during the evening. At least nobody booed him. Is this a smart strategy though? Scott is a charismatic, substantive person but little of the was on display on the debate stage. He just seems to be waiting or hoping that Trump will somehow go away and he will be there to inherit the pieces. I do not know whether he thinks that will happen this year, next year, in 2028 or 2032. Again, at least Pence and Haley came there to "fight" for the nomination.

The Republican Party is very divided these days on issues like Ukraine and the safety and effectiveness on vaccines. One of those issues was discussed a good deal and one did not get any attention in this first debate. It seems like the grassroots of the party on both of those matters is on a different side than the political class and that does not make me happy.

Clearly, Donald Trump still dominates all political discussion in America and also divides the Republican Party. About the only thing that Republicans (which I suppose includes myself) seem to agree on is that Joe Biden seems to be in over his head and that Hunter Biden has gotten away with too much for too long.

 

Ultimately, the most telling part of the debate was when Brett Baier asked the candidates to raise their hands on if they would support Trump as the nominee even if were convicted of a felony. Ramaswamy's hand immediately shot up without hesitation. Scott, Haley, and Burgum seemed to look around at each other and quickly followed suit. Then, DeSantis did the same thing and finally, with what looked like a pained look on his face, Pence was the last to raise his hand.

Candidates running for the job of protecting and defending the Constitution were willing to support a convicted felon, if it came to that.  So much for the party of "law and order." All of them, and those who cheered this position, even if just in the name of "owning the libs" ought to be ashamed.

At least it was not unanimous. The two former U.S. Attorneys off to one side of the stage dissented. Hutchinson kept his hands down and Christie did some sort of hand gesture to indicate no, which might have led to some confusion at first glance. History will remember.

Finally, a note on how the debate began and a topic I was planning to briefly address. There is a new song atop Billboard's Hot 100 this week, the 1153rd single to have achieved that distinction since the chart debuted in 1958. The candidates were asked what they thought of the debut song of the previously unknown singer from rural Virginia who performs as Oliver Anthony. The song entitled "Rich Men North of Richmond" is number one, at least for the one week and has become sort of a populist anthem. Many people likely bought it to "own the libs" just like another recent number one song by the more established country artist Jason Aldean called "Try That In A Small Town." While admittedly not a country fan, I find the Oliver Anthony song horrible and tuneless, but others are focused on the lyrics. (I do think Morgan Wallen's country song "Last Night"which has topped the charts for many recent weeks is pretty darn good.)

 

Those who have been quick to make the newly famous musician a populist hero should probably be cautious. Oliver Anthony has been saying in interviews this week that he does not associate with either political party and that he was pretty surprised to be featured during the Republican debate. He said he wrote the song about "rich men north of Richmond (i.e. Washington D.C.) about the very people who were trying to embrace him on the debate stage in Milwaukee. Anthony has also spoken favorably about the concept of diversity, which reflexively turns off a lot of people who have been praising his song.

Anyway, "Rich Men North of Richmond" speaks of people working "overtime hours for bullshit pay" and also makes reference to inflation, welfare recipients, and a seeming mention to the infamous Epstein Island were minors were sexually abused. The main point is how as is now being noticed by many, there seems to be rightward tilt to many things in pop culture such as number one songs. This has typically been associated with the left.

 

There is a long history of popular and successful folk songs, rock songs, country songs, soul songs, hip-hop songs, that have a social message and do not exactly paint the United States of America in the greatest light. Conservatives have typically scoffed at these attitudes and have pointed out that our country is exceptional despite what the "blame America" crowd puts across in pop culture.

Now, many anti-establishment forces in our country seem to have found a home on the right and in the base of the once "elite" Republican Party. This is not to say that many left-wingers also do not continue to criticize American life in their songs either.

There is a lot of anti-establishment attitudes going around these days. Free speech and wanting to make positive change in America is always a good thing, but the entire cultural zeitgeist of America seems pretty foreboding these days.

During the debate, Mike Pence argued with Vivek Ramaswamy about the national mood of the country. Pence (stealing a line from Jimmy Carter) said that Americans get along pretty well and just need "a government as good as our people." Ramaswamy took the opposite position and agreed with the dark and dystopian view of America held by the Trump base and talked about how people no longer believe in America. I would like to think that Pence is right. At some level I think he is, but it really does feel like our nation is a tinderbox these days.