U.S. House Predictions Part 16

2 Days Until Election Day

Texas

1. Louie Gohmert R (Romney 72%) Safe R
2. Ted Poe R (Romney 63%) Safe R
3. Sam Johnson R (Romney 64%) Safe R
4. John Ratcliffe R (Romney 74%) Safe R
5. Jeb Hensarling R (Romney 65%) Safe R
6. Joe Barton R (Romney 58%) Safe R
7. John Culberson R (Romney 60%) Safe R
8. Kevin Brady R (Romney 77%) Safe R
9. Al Green D (Obama 78%) Safe D
10. Michael McCaul R (Romney 59%) Safe R
11. Mike Conaway R (Romney 79%) Safe R
12. Kay Granger R (Romney 67%) Safe R
13. Mac Thornberry R (Romney 80%) Safe R
14. Randy Weber R (Romney 59%) Safe R
15. Open (Ruben Hinojosa D)- (Obama 57%) Safe D
16. Beto O'Rourke D (Obama 64%) Safe D
17. Bill Flores R (Romney 60%) Safe R
18. Sheila Jackson Lee D (Obama 765) Safe D
19. Open (Randy Neugebauer R)- (Romney 74%) Safe R
20. Joaquin Castro D (Obama 59%) Safe D
21. Lamar Smith R (Romney 60%) Safe R
22. Pete Olson R (Romney 62%) Safe R
23. Will Hurd R (Romney 51%) Tossup (D)
24. Kenny Marchant R (Romney 60%) Safe R
25. Roger Williams R (Romney 60%) Safe R
26. Michael Burgess R (Romney 68%) Safe R
27. Blake Farenthold R (Romney 61%) Likely R
28. Henry Cuellar D (Obama 60%) Safe D
29. Gene Green D (Obama 66%) Safe D
30. Eddie Bernice Johnson D (Obama 80%) Safe D
31. John Carter R (Romney 60%) Safe R
32. Pete Sessions R (Romney 57%) Safe R
33. Marc Veasey D (Obama 72%) Safe D
34. Filemon Vela D (Obama 61%) Safe D
35. Lloyd Doggett D (Obama 63%) Safe D
36. Brian Babin R (Romney 73%) Safe R

TX current: 11 D, 25 R
TX predicted: 12 D, 24 R

Current total: 175 D, 222 R

Predicted:
182 D (145 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
215 R (149 Safe, 42 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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Utah

1. Rob Bishop R (Romney 78%) Safe R
2. Chris Stewart R (Romney 68%) Safe R
3. Jason Chaffetz R (Romney 79%) Safe R
4. Mia Love R (Romney 68%) Likely R

UT current: 0 D, 4 R
UT predicted: 0 D, 4 R

Current total: 175 D, 226 R

Predicted:
182 D (145 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
219 R (152 Safe, 43 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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Vermont

1. Peter Welch D (Obama 67%) Safe D

VT current: 1 D, 0 R
VT predicted: 1 D, 0 R


Current total: 176 D, 226 R

Predicted:
183 D (146 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
219 R (152 Safe, 43 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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Virginia
  
(redistricted since 2014. Like what I discovered about the North Carolina districts, the 2012 Presidential data appears to only include the two major party nominees. I think the same would have been true for the Florida numbers I presented several days ago)

1. Rob Wittman R (Romney 56%) Safe R
2. Open (Scott Rigell R)- (Romney 51%) Likely R
3. Bobby Scott D (Obama 68%) Safe D
4. Open (Randy Forbes R)- (Obama 61%) Likely D
5. Open (Robert Hurt R)- (Romney 54%) Leans R
6. Bob Goodlatte R (Romney 60%) Likely R
7. Dave Brat R (Romney 56%) Safe R
8. Don Beyer D (Obama 68%) Safe D
9. Morgan Griffith R (Romney 64%) Likely R
10. Barbara Comstock R (Romney 51%) Tossup (R)
11. Gerry Connolly D (Obama 63%) Safe D

VA current: 3 D, 8 R
VA predicted: 4 D, 7 R

Current total: 179 D, 234 R

Predicted:
187 D (149 Safe, 25 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
226 R (154 Safe, 46 Likely, 18 Leans, 8 Tossup)
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Washington

1. Suzan DelBene D (Obama 54%) Safe D
2. Rick Larsen D (Obama 59%) Safe D
3. Jaime Herrera Beutler R (Romney 50%) Likely R
4. Dan Newhouse R (Romney 60%) Safe R/Likely Newhouse
5. Cathy McMorris Rodgers R (Romney 54%) Likely R
6. Derek Kilmer D (Obama 56%) Safe D
7. Open (Jim McDermott D)- (Obama 79%) Safe D/Leans Jayapal
8. Dave Reichert R (Obama 50%) Likely R
9. Adam Smith D (Obama 68%) Safe D
10. Denny Heck D (Obama 56%) Safe D

WA current: 6 D, 4 R
WA predicted: 6 D, 4 R

Current total: 185 D, 238 R

Predicted:

193 D (155 Safe, 25 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
230 R (155 Safe, 49 Likely, 18 Leans, 8 Tossup)
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West Virginia

1. David McKinley R (Romney 62%) Safe R
2. Alex Mooney R (Romney 60%) Likely R
3. Evan Jenkins R (Romney 65%) Safe R

WV current: 0 D, 3 R
WV predicted: 0 D, 3 R

Current total: 185 D, 241 R

Predicted:
193 D (155 Safe, 25 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
233 R (157 Safe, 50 Likely, 18 Leans, 8 Tossup)
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Wisconsin

1. Paul Ryan R (Romney 52%) Likely R
2. Marc Pocan D (Obama 68%) Safe D
3. Ron Kind D (Obama 55%) Safe D
4. Gwen Moore D (Obama 75%) Safe D
5. Jim Sensenbrenner R (Romney 61%) Safe R
6. Glenn Grothman R (Romney 53%) Safe R
7. Sean Duffy R (Romney 51%) Safe R
8. Open (Reid Ribble R)- (Romney 51%) Leans R

WI current: 3 D, 5 R
WI predicted: 3 D, 5 R

Current total: 188 D, 246 R


Predicted:

196 D (158 Safe, 25 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
238 R (160 Safe, 51 Likely, 19 Leans, 8 Tossup)
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Wyoming

1. Open (Cynthia Lummis R)- (Romney 69%) Safe R

WY current: 0 D, 1 R
WY predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 188 D, 247 R


Predicted:

196 D (158 Safe, 25 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
239 R (161 Safe, 51 Likely, 19 Leans, 8 Tossup)
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Democrats pick up 8 seats
Republicans maintain Majority