U.S. House Predictions Part 15

4 Days Until Election Day

Ohio

(home of the City of Cleveland, which was subjected to unmitigated disgrace earlier this summer when the Republican Party nominated a despicable cretin, but became cosmically redeemed this week when it was the location of the occasion where the Chicago Cubs won the World Series. May the loyal baseball fans of Cleveland one day get to experience the same joy.)

1. Steve Chabot R (Romney 52%) Safe R
2. Brad Wenstrup R (Romney 55%) Safe R
3. Joyce Beatty D (Obama 70%) Safe D
4. Jim Jordan R (Romney 56%) Safe R
5. Bob Latta R (Romney 54%) Safe R
6. Bill Johnson R (Romney 55%) Safe R
7. Bob Gibbs R (Romney 54%) Safe R
8. Warren Davidson R (Romney 62%)
9. Marcy Kaptur D (Obama 68%) Safe D
10. Mike Turner R (Romney 50%) Safe R
11. Marcia Fudge D (Obama 83%) Safe D
12. Pat Tiberi R (Romney 54%) Safe R
13. Tim Ryan D (Obama 63%) Safe D
14. David Joyce R (Romney 51%) Likely R
15. Steve Stivers R (Romney 52%) Safe R
16. Jim Renacci R (Romney 54%) Safe R

OH current: 4 D, 12 R
OH predicted: 4 D, 12 R

Current total: 150 D, 164 R

Predicted:

156 D (121 Safe, 23 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
158 R (104 Safe, 32 Likely, 15 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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Oklahoma

1. Jim Bridenstine R (Romney 66%) Safe R
2. Markwayne Mullin R (Romney 68%) Safe R
3. Frank Lucas R (Romney 74%) Safe R
4. Tom Cole R (Romney 67%) Safe R
5. Steve Russell R (Romney 59%) Safe R

OK current: 0 D, 5 R
OK predicted: 0 D, 5 R

Current total: 150 D, 169 R

Predicted:

156 D (121 Safe, 23 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
163 R (109 Safe, 32 Likely, 15 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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Oregon

1. Suzanne Bonamici D (Obama 57%) Safe D
2. Greg Walden R (Romney 56%) Safe R
3. Earl Blumenauer D (Obama 72%) Safe D
4. Peter DeFazio D (Obama 51%) Safe D
5. Kurt Schrader D (Obama 50%) Likely D

OR current: 4 D, 1 R
OR predicted: 4 D, 1 R

Current total: 154 D, 170 R

Predicted:

160 D (124 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
164 R (110 Safe, 32 Likely, 15 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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Pennsylvania

1. Robert Brady D (Obama 82%) Safe D
2. Vacant (Chaka Fattah D)- (Obama 90%) Safe D (regular and Special)
3. Mike Kelly R (Romney 56%) Safe R
4. Scott Perry R (Romney 57%) Safe R
5. Glenn Thompson R (Romney 57%) Safe R
6. Ryan Costello R (Romney 51%) Likely R
7. Pat Meehan R (Romney 50%) Likely R
8. Open (Mike Fitzpatrick R)- (Romney 49%) Leans R
9. Bill Shuster R (Romney 63%) Likely R
10. Tom Marino R (Romney 60%) Safe R
11. Lou Barletta R (Romney 54%) Likely R
12. Keith Rothfus R (Romney 58%) Likely R
13. Brendan Boyle D (Obama 66%) Safe D
14. Mike Doyle D (Obama 68%) Safe D
15. Charlie Dent R (Romney 51%) Likely R
16. Open (Joe Pitts R)- (Romney 52%) Leans R
17. Matt Cartwright D (Obama 55%) Safe D
18. Tim Murphy R (Romney 58%) Safe R

PA current: 5 D, 13 R
PA predicted: 5 D, 13 R

Current total: 159 D, 183 R

Predicted:

165 D (129 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
177 R (115 Safe, 38 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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Rhode Island

1. David Cicilline D (Obama 66%) Safe D
2. Jim Langevin D (Obama 60%) Safe D

RI current: 2 D, 0 R
RI predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current total: 161 D, 183 R

Predicted:

167 D (131 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
177 R (115 Safe, 38 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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South Carolina

1. Mark Sanford R (Romney 58%) Safe R
2. Joe Wilson R (Romney 62%) Safe R
3. Jeff Duncan R (Romney 65%) Safe R
4. Trey Gowdy R (Romney 62% ) Safe R
5. Mick Mulvaney R (Romney 55%) Likely R
6. Jim Clyburn D (Obama 73%) Safe D
7. Tom Rice R (Romney 55%) Safe R

SC current: 1 D, 6 R
SC predicted: 1 D, 6 R

Current total: 162 D, 189 R

Predicted:

168 D (132 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
183 R (120 Safe, 39 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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South Dakota

1. Kristi Noem R (Romney 58%) Likely R

SD current: 0 D, 1 R
SD predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 162 D, 190 R

Predicted:

168 D (132 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
184 R (120 Safe, 40 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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Tennessee

1. Phil Roe R (Romney 73%) Safe R
2. Jimmy Duncan R (Romney 67%) Safe R
3. Chuck Fleischmann R (Romney 63%) Safe R
4. Scott DesJarlais R (Romney 65%) Likely R
5. Jim Cooper D (Obama 56%) Safe D
6. Diane Black R (Romney 69%) Safe R
7. Marsha Blackburn R (Romney 66%) Safe R
8. Open (Stephen Fincher R)- (Romney 66%) Safe R
9. Steve Cohen D (Obama 79%) Safe D

TN current: 2 D, 7 R
TN predicted: 2 D, 7 R

Current total: 164 D, 197 R

Predicted:

170 D (134 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
191 R (126 Safe, 41 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)