U.S. House Predictions- Part XVIII

9 Days Until Election Day

Utah-Virginia

Utah

1. Donna McAleer D vs. Rob Bishop R (McCain 68%)- Safe R
2. Jay Seegmiller D vs. Chris Stewart R (McCain 59%)- Likely R
3. Soren Simonsen D vs. Jason Chaffetz R (McCain 68%)- Safe R
4. Jim Matheson D vs. Mia Love R (McCain 56%)- Leans R

UT current: 1 D, 2 R
UT predicted: 0 D, 4 R

Current total: 180 D, 222 R
Predicted:
174 D (95 Safe, 54 Likely, 18 Leans, 7 Tossup)
227 R (125 Safe, 65 Likely, 21 Leans, 16 Tossup)
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Vermont

1. Peter Welch D vs. Mark Donka R (Obama 68*)- Safe D

* the source I am using for new districts says Obama won the district/state with 67% of the vote. However, the source that I have always used for the previous district said the number was 68%.  I am not regularly cross checking these numbers from the online spreadsheet I found, so I hope these district totals are accurate

VT current: 1 D, 0 R
VT predicted: 1 D, 0 R

Current total: 181 D, 222 R
Predicted:
175 D (96 Safe, 54 Likely, 18 Leans, 7 Tossup)
227 R (125 Safe, 65 Likely, 21 Leans, 16 Tossup)
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Virginia

1. Adam Cook D vs. Rob Wittman R (McCain 52%)- Safe R
2. Paul Hirschbiel D vs. Scott Rigell R (Obama 50%)- Likely R
3. Bobby Scott D vs. Dean Longo R (Obama 79%)- Safe D
4. Ella Ward D vs. Randy Forbes R (McCain 50%)- Likely R
5. John Douglass D vs. Robert Hurt R (McCain 51%)- Safe R
6. Andy Schmookler D vs. Bob Goodlatte R (McCain 57%)- Safe R
7. Wayne Powell D vs. Eric Cantor R (McCain 56%)- Likely R
8. Jim Moran D vs. Patrick Murray R (Obama 69%)- Likely D
9. Anthony Flaccavento D vs. Morgan Griffith R (McCain 58%)- Safe R
10. Kristin Cabral D vs. Frank Wolf R (Obama 51%)- Likely R
11. Gerry Connolly D vs. Chris Perkins R (Obama 62%)- Likely D

VA current: 3 D, 8 R
VA predicted: 3 D, 8 R

Current total: 184 D, 230 R
Predicted:
178 D (97 Safe, 56 Likely, 18 Leans, 7 Tossup)
235 R (129 Safe, 69 Likely, 21 Leans, 16 Tossup)