U.S. House Predictions- Part III

Minnesota

1. Tim Walz D (Obama 51%)- Leans D
2. John Kline R (McCain 50%)- Likely R
3. Erik Paulsen R (Obama 52%)- Likely R
4. Betty McCollum D (Obama 64%)- Safe D
5. Keith Ellison D (Obama 74%)- Safe D
6. Michele Bachmann R (McCain 53%)- Likely R
7. Collin Peterson D (McCain 50%)- Likely D
8. James Oberstar D (Obama 53%)- Leans D

MN current: 5 D, 3 R
MN predicted: 5 D, 3 R

Current total: 128 D, 93 R
Predicted:
108 D (62 Safe, 23 Likely, 16 Leans, 7 Tossup)
113 R (68 Safe, 22 Likely, 14 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Mississippi

1. Travis Childers D (McCain 62%)- Leans R
2. Bennie Thompson D (Obama 66%)- Likely D
3. Gregg Harper R (McCain 61%)- Safe R
4. Gene Taylor D (McCain 67%)- Tossup (D)

MS current: 3 D, 1 R
MS predicted: 2 D, 2 R

Current total: 131 D, 94 R
Predicted:
110 D (62 Safe. 24 Likely, 16 Leans, 8 Tossup)
115 R (69 Safe, 22 Likely, 15 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Missouri

1. Lacy Clay D (Obama 80%)- Safe D
2. Todd Akin R (McCain 55%)- Safe R
3. Russ Carnahan D (Obama 60%)- Likely D
4. Ike Skelton D (McCain 61%)- Tossup (D)
5. Emanuel Cleaver D (Obama 63%)- Likely D
6. Sam Graves R (McCain 54%)- Safe R
7. Open (Roy Blunt R)- (McCain 63%)- Safe R
8. Jo Ann Emerson R (McCain 62%)- Safe R
9. Blaine Luetkemeyer R (McCain 55%)- Safe R

MO current: 4 D, 5 R
MO predicted: 4 D, 5 R

Current total: 135 D, 99 R
Predicted:
114 D (63 Safe, 26 Likely, 16 Leans, 9 Tossup)
120 R (74 Safe, 22 Likely, 15 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Montana

1. Denny Rehberg R (McCain 50%)- Safe R

MT current: 0 D, 1 R
MT predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 135 D, 100 R
Predicted:
114 D (63 Safe, 26 Likely, 16 Leans, 9 Tossup)
121 R (75 Safe, 22 Likely, 15 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Nebraska

1. Jeff Fortenberry R (McCain 54%)- Safe R
2. Lee Terry R (Obama 50%)- Likely R
3. Adrian Smith R (McCain 69%)- Safe R

NE current: 0 D, 3 R
NE predicted: 0 D, 3 R

Current total: 135 D, 103 R
Predicted:
114 D (63 Safe, 26 Likely, 16 Leans, 9 Tossup)
124 R (77 Safe, 23 Likely, 15 Leans, 9 Tossup)
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Nevada

1. Shelley Berkley D (Obama 64%)- Safe D
2. Dean Heller R (McCain 49%)- Likely R
3. Dina Titus D (Obama 55%)- Tossup (R)

NV current: 2 D, 1 R
NV predicted: 1 D, 2 R

Current total: 137 D, 104 R
Predicted:
115 D (64 Safe, 26 Likely, 16 Leans, 9 Tossup)
126 R (77 Safe, 24 Likely, 15 Leans, 10 Tossup)
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New Hampshire

1. Carol Shea-Porter D (Obama 53%)- Leans R
2. Open (Paul Hodes D)- (Obama 56%)- Tossup (R)

NH current: 2 D, 0 R
NH predicted: 0 D, 2 R

Current total: 139 D, 104 R
Predicted:
115 D (64 Safe, 26 Likely, 16 Leans, 9 Tossup)
128 R (77 Safe, 24 Likely, 16 Leans, 11 Tossup)
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New Jersey

1. Robert Andrews D (Obama 65%)- Safe D
2. Frank LoBiondo R (Obama 54%)- Safe R
3. John Adler D (Obama 52%)- Tossup (R)
4. Christopher Smith R (McCain 52%)- Safe R
5. Scott Garrett R (McCain 54%)- Likely R
6. Frank Pallone D (Obama 61%)- Likely D
7. Leonard Lance R (Obama 50%)- Likely R
8. Bill Pascrell D (Obama 63%)- Safe D
9. Steven Rothman D (Obama 61%)- Safe D
10. Donald Payne D (Obama 87%)- Safe D
11. Rodney Frelinghuysen R (McCain 54%)- Safe R
12. Rush Holt D (Obama 58%)- Leans D
13. Albio Sires D (Obama 75%)- Safe D

NJ current: 8 D, 5 R
NJ predicted: 7 D, 6 R

Current total: 147 D, 109 R
Predicted:
122 D (69 Safe, 27 Likely, 17 Leans, 9 Tossup)
134 R (80 Safe, 26 Likely, 16 Leans, 12 Tossup)
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New Mexico

1. Martin Heinrich D (Obama 60%)- Leans D
2. Harry Teague D (McCain 50%)- Leans R
3. Ben Ray Lujan D (Obama 61%)- Likely D

NM current: 3 D, 0 R
NM predicted: 2 D, 1 R

Current total: 150 D, 109 R
Predicted:
124 D (69 Safe, 28 Likely, 18 Leans, 9 Tossup)
135 R (80 Safe, 26 Likely, 17 Leans, 12 Tossup)
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New York

1. Timothy Bishop D (Obama 51%)- Leans D
2. Steve Israel D (Obama 56%)- Likely D
3. Peter King R (McCain 52%)- Safe R
4. Carolyn McCarthy D (Obama 58%)- Leans D
5. Gary Ackerman D (Obama 63%)- Safe D
6. Gregory Meeks D (Obama 89%)- Safe D
7. Joseph Crowley D (Obama 79%)- Safe D
8. Jerrold Nadler D (Obama 74%)- Safe D
9. Anthony Weiner D (Obama 55%)- Likely D
10. Edolphus Towns D (Obama 91%)- Safe D
11. Yvette Clark D (Obama 90%)- Safe D
12. Nydia Velazquez D (Obama 86%)- Safe D
13. Michael McMahon D (McCain 51%)- Leans D
14. Carolyn Maloney D (Obama 78%)- Safe D
15. Charles Rangel D (Obama 93%)- Likely D
16. Jose Serrano D (Obama 95%)- Safe D
17. Eliot Engel D (Obama 72%)- Safe D
18. Nita Lowey D (Obama 62%)- Safe D
19. John Hall D (Obama 51%)- Tossup (R)
20. Scott Murphy D (Obama 51%)- Tossup (D)
21. Paul Tonko D (Obama 58%)- Safe D
22. Maurice Hinchey D (Obama 59%)- Likely D
23. Bill Owens D (Obama 52%)- Tossup (D)
24. Michael Arcuri D (Obama 50%)- Leans D
25. Dan Maffei D (Obama 56%)- Leans D
26. Christopher Lee R (McCain 52%)- Safe R
27. Brian Higgins D (Obama 54%)- Safe D
28. Louise Slaughter D (Obama 68%)- Safe D
29. Vacant (Eric Massa D)- (McCain 50%)- Likely R (general and special)

NY current: 27 D, 2 R (including vacancy)
NY predicted: 25 D, 4 R

Current total: 177 D, 111 R
Predicted:
149 D (83 Safe, 32 Likely, 23 Leans, 11 Tossup)
139 R (82 Safe, 27 Likely, 17 Leans, 13 Tossup)
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North Carolina

1. G.K. Butterfield D (Obama 63%)- Safe D
2. Bob Etheridge D (Obama 52%)- Leans D
3. Walter Jones Jr. R (McCain 61%)- Safe R
4. David Price D (Obama 62%)- Likely D
5. Virginia Foxx R (McCain 61%)- Safe R
6. Howard Coble R (McCain 63%)- Safe R
7. Mike McIntyre D (McCain 52%)- Leans D
8. Larry Kissell D (Obama 52%)- Tossup (R)
9. Sue Myrick R (McCain 55%)- Safe R
10. Patrick McHenry R (McCain 63%)- Safe R
11. Heath Shuler D (McCain 52%)- Tossup (D)
12. Melvin Watt D (Obama 71%)- Safe D
13. Brad Miller D (Obama 59%)- Likely D

NC current: 8 D, 5 R
NC predicted: 7 D, 6 R

Current total: 185 D, 116 R
Predicted:
156 D (85 Safe, 34 Likely, 25 Leans, 12 Tossup)
145 R (87 Safe, 27 Likely, 17 Leans, 14 Tossup)