Friday, October 22, 2010

U.S. House Predictions- Part I

Alabama

1. Jo Bonner R (McCain 61%)- Safe R
2. Bobby Bright D (McCain 63%)- Tossup (R)
3. Mike Rogers R (McCain 56%)- Safe R
4. Robert Aderholt R (McCain 76%)- Safe R
5. Open (Parker Griffith R)- (McCain 61%)- Likely R
6. Spencer Bachus R (McCain 74%)- Safe R
7. Open (Artur Davis D)- (Obama 71%)- Safe D

AL current: 2 D, 5 R
AL predicted: 1 D, 6 R

Current total: 2 D, 5 R
Predicted:
1 D (1 Safe)
6 R (4 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Tossup)
_______________________________________________________________

Alaska

1. Don Young R (McCain 59%)- Likely R

AK current: 0 D, 1 R
AK predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 2 D, 6 R
Predicted:
1 D (1 Safe)
7 R (4 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Tossup)
_______________________________________________________________

Arizona

1. Ann Kirkpatrick D (McCain 54%)- Leans R
2. Trent Franks R (McCain 61%)- Safe R
3. Open (John Shadegg R)- (McCain 56%)- Likely R
4. Ed Pastor D (Obama 66%)- Safe D
5. Harry Mitchell D (McCain 52%)- Tossup (R)
6. Jeff Flake R (McCain 61%)- Safe R
7. Raul Grijalva D (Obama 57%)- Leans D
8. Gabrielle Giffords D (McCain 52%)- Tossup (D)

AZ current: 5 D, 3 R
AZ predicted: 3 D, 5 R

Current total: 7 D, 9 R
Predicted:
4 D (2 Safe, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)
12 R (6 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)
_____________________________________________________________

Arkansas

1. Open (Marion Berry D)- (McCain 59%)- Leans R
2. Open (Vic Snyder D)- (McCain 54%)- Likely R
3. Open (John Boozman R)- (McCain 64%)- Safe R
4. Mike Ross D (McCain 58%)- Likely D

AR current: 3 D, 1 R
AR predicted: 1 D, 3 R

Current total: 10 D, 10 R
Predicted:
5 D (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)
15 R (7 Safe, 4 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)
_________________________________________________________

California

1. Mike Thompson D (Obama 66%)- Safe D
2. Wally Herger R ((McCain 55%)- Safe R
3. Dan Lungren R (Obama 49%)- Likely R
4. Tom McClintock R (McCain 54%)- Safe R
5. Doris Matsui D (Obama 70%)- Safe D
6. Lynn Woolsey D (Obama 76%)- Safe D
7. George Miller D (Obama 72%)- Safe D
8. Nancy Pelosi D (Obama 85%)- Safe D
9. Barbara Lee D (Obama 88%)- Safe D
10. John Garamendi D (Obama 65%)- Safe D
11. Jerry McNerney D (Obama 54%)- Tossup (R)
12. Jackie Speier D (Obama 74%) Safe D
13. Pete Stark D (Obama 74%)- Safe D
14. Anna Eshoo D (Obama 73%)- Safe D
15. Michael Honda D (Obama 68%)- Safe D
16. Zoe Lofgren D (Obama 70%)- Safe D
17. Sam Farr D (Obama 72%)- Safe D
18. Dennis Cardoza D (Obama 59%)- Leans D
19. Open (George Radanovich R)- (McCain 52%)- Safe R
20. Jim Costa D (Obama 60%)- Leans D
21. Devin Nunes R (McCain 56%)- Safe R
22. Kevin McCarthy R (McCain 60%)- Safe R
23. Lois Capps D (Obama 66%)- Safe D
24. Elton Gallegly R (Obama 51%)- Likely R
25. Howard McKeon R (Obama 49%)- Safe R
26. David Dreier R (Obama 51%)- Likely R
27. Brad Sherman D (Obama 66%)- Safe D
28. Howard Berman D (Obama 76%)- Safe D
29. Adam Schiff D (Obama 68%)- Safe D
30. Henry Waxman D (Obama 79%)- Safe D
31. Xavier Becerra D (Obama 80%)- Safe D
32. Judy Chu D (Obama 68%)- Safe D
33. Open (Diane Watson D)- (Obama 87%)- Safe D
34. Lucille Roybal-Allard D (Obama 75%)- Safe D
35. Maxine Waters D (Obama 84%)- Safe D
36. Jane Harman D (Obama 64%)- Likely D
37. Laura Richardson D (Obama 80%)- Likely D
38. Grace Napolitano D (Obama 71%)- Safe D
39. Linda Sanchez D (Obama 65%)- Likely D
40. Ed Royce R (McCain 51%)- Safe R
41. Jerry Lewis R (McCain 54%)- Safe R
42. Gary Miller R (McCain 53%)- Safe R
43. Joe Baca D (Obama 68%)- Safe D
44. Ken Calvert R (Obama 50%)- Likely R
45. Mary Bono Mack R (Obama 52%)- Likely R
46. Dana Rohrabacher R (McCain 50%)- Safe R
47. Loretta Sanchez D (Obama 60%)- Tossup (D)
48. John Campbell R (Obama 49%)- Likely R
49. Darrell Issa R (McCain 53%)- Safe R
50. Brian Bilbray R (Obama 51%)- Likely R
51. Bob Filner D (Obama 63%)- Likely D
52. Duncan D. Hunter R (McCain 53%)- Safe R
53. Susan Davis D (Obama 68%)- Safe D

CA current: 34 D, 19 R
CA predicted: 33 D, 20 R

Current total: 44 D, 29 R
Predicted:
38 D (28 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)
35 R (19 Safe, 11 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup)
________________________________________________________

Colorado

1. Diana DeGette D (Obama 74%)- Safe D
2. Jared Polis D (Obama 64%)- Safe D
3. John Salazar D (McCain 50%)- Leans R
4. Betsy Markey D (McCain 50%)- Leans R
5. Doug Lamborn R (McCain 59%)- Safe R
6. Mike Coffman R (McCain 52%)- Safe R
7. Ed Perlmutter D (Obama 59%)- Leans D

CO current: 5 D, 2 R
CO predicted: 3 D, 4 R

Current total: 49 D, 31 R
Predicted:
41 D (30 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)
39 R (21 Safe, 11 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)
______________________________________________________

Connecticut

1. John Larson D (Obama 66%)- Likely D
2. Joe Courtney D (Obama 58%)- Likely D
3. Rosa DeLauro D (Obama 62%)- Safe D
4. Jim Himes D (Obama 60%)- Leans D
5. Christopher Murphy D (Obama 56%)- Tossup (R)

CT current: 5 D, 0 R
CT predicted: 4 D, 1 R

Current total: 54 D, 31 R
Predicted:
45 D (31 Safe, 7 Likely, 5 Leans, 2 Tossup)
40 R (21 Safe, 11 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup)
____________________________________________________________

Delaware

1. Open (Michael Castle R)- (Obama 62%)- Likely D

DE current: 0 D, 1 R
DE predicted: 1 D, 0 R

Current total: 54 D, 32 R
Predicted:
46 D (31 Safe, 8 Likely, 5 Leans, 2 Tossup)
40 R (21 Safe, 11 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup)
________________________________________________________________

Florida

1. Jeff Miller R (McCain 67%)- Safe R
2. Allen Boyd D (McCain 54%)- Leans R
3. Corrine Brown D (Obama 71%)- Safe D
4. Ander Crenshaw R (McCain 62%)-Safe R
5. Open (Ginny Brown-Waite R)- (McCain 56%)- Safe R
6. Cliff Stears R (McCain 56%)- Safe R
7. John Mica R (McCain 53%)- Safe R
8. Alan Grayson D (Obama 52%)- Leans R
9. Gus Bilirakis R (McCain 52%)- Safe R
10. Bill Young R (Obama 52%)- Likely R
11. Kathy Castor D (Obama 66%)- Likely D
12. Open (Adam Putnam R)- (McCain 50%)- Leans R
13. Vern Buchanan R (McCain 52%)- Safe R
14. Connie Mack IV R (McCain 57%)- Safe R
15. Bill Posey R (McCain 51%)- Safe R
16. Tom Rooney R (McCain 52%)- Safe R
17. Open (Kendrick Meek D)- (Obama 87%)- Safe D
18. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen R (Obama 51%)- Safe R
19. Ted Deutch D (Obama 65%)- Safe D
20. Debbie Wasserman Schultz D (Obama 63%)- Safe D
21. Open (Lincoln Diaz-Balart R; Mario Diaz-Balart R is candidate)- (McCain 51%)- Safe R
22. Ron Klein D (Obama 52%)- Tossup (D)
23. Alcee Hastings D (Obama 83%)- Safe D
24. Suzanne Kosmas D (McCain 51%)- Leans R
25. Open (Mario Diaz-Balart R)- (McCain 50%)- Leans R

FL current: 10 D, 15 R
FL predicted: 7 D, 18 R

Current total: 64 D, 47 R
Predicted:
53 D (36 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)
58 R (33 Safe, 12 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)

1 Comments:

At 5:51 AM, Blogger ccdemuth said...

More Jobs or More Government?

Incumbent Congressman Jim Himes is for the same type of command-and-control policies that have consistently led to low growth and high structural unemployment in Eastern Europe in the twentieth century and in Western Europe today: his only problem with pork-barrel stimulus is that there has not been enough of it. His only concern with the healthcare bill is that it did not go far enough. He voted to adjourn congress without addressing January’s massive tax hikes.

The incumbent is for unlimited government. On his watch, he voted for a government that increased borrowing by a trillion dollars a year. His answer is always the same: more government. More taxes, more spending, more job-killing regulation.

Challenger Dan Debicella believes that there is a better way: he is for policies conducive to economic growth such as replacing the pork-barrel stimulus with a payroll tax cut. He opposes all tax increases and intrusive regulation that stifles job creation.

Dan is for a constitutional, limited government. He would cap the size of the federal government at 20% of our gross domestic product. He would force politicians to make trade-offs between competing priorities instead of always growing the size government. He would reduce the number of government employees.

If Dan Debicella shares your beliefs and you want to help him advance those beliefs in congress, then you can do so here: http://www.40seats.com/ct4 . Both sides should be able to agree that your choice is clear and it is important. What kind of country do we want to live in? Do we want to continue down the current direction or do we think that there is a better way?

 

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