Monday, November 03, 2014

Final Election Eve Predictions

1 Day Until Election Day


Full list

AL- Safe R
AK - Tossup (R)
AZ- Leans R
AR- Leans R
CA- Safe D
CO- Tossup (D)
CT- Tossup (D)
FL- Tossup (R)
GA- Leans R
HI- Leans D
ID- Safe R- change from Likely R
IL- Leans D
IA- Likely R
KS- Tossup (R)
ME- Tossup (D)
MD- Tossup (D)- change from Leans D
MA- Tossup (R)
MI- Leans R
MN- Leans D
NE- Likely R
NV- Safe R
NH- Leans D
NM- Likely R
NY- Safe D
OH- Safe R
OK- Likely R
OR- Leans D
PA- Likely D
RI- Tossup (D)
SC- Likely R
SD- Safe R
TN- Safe R
TX- Likely R
VT- Safe D
WI- Leans R
WY- Safe R

14 D (3 Safe, 1 Likely, 5 Leans, 5 Tossup)
22 R (7 Safe, 6 Likely, 5 Leans, 4 Tossup)

Overall Predicted Total: 21 D, 29 R


So many closes races and so much uncertainty!  It would definitely be an upset if there wound up being more Democrats than Republicans as the chiefs executive of the states when all is said and done. However, after Republicans had such a strong 2010 year in these races, there is the potential for some disappointment in a few contestants if they do not turn out a certain way.

While most federal voting this year definitely has an anti-Obama tinge to it nationwide, in state races, incumbents, both Democrat and Republican, are facing challenges from an angry electorate. That could lead to some Gubernatorial victors who would have a much harder time breaking through the partisan divide in statewide federal races.

Needless to say, I definitely hope Republicans manage to net some Governorships. I especially hope to be wrong on my call in my home state of Illinois. We definitely need a change and I feel like I have done about all I can to try to get my fellow Land of Lincoln folks to kick out Pat Quinn. Bruce Rauner won the GOP primary and he has my full support. I just think that my party (once again) nominated the wrong candidate, and everything I feared might happen in a general election to blow what should have been a sure pick-up win has happened. That may be a rant for another day though. It will not feel good to be that right. I really hope I am proven wrong.

U.S. Senate:

 I actually forgot to make some changes I wanted to back on Saturday, so here is the full list

AL- Safe R
AK- Leans R
AR- Leans R
CO-Tossup (R)
DE- Safe D
GA- Leans R
HI- Safe D
ID- Safe R
IL- Safe D
IA- Tossup (R)
KS- Tossup (R)
KY- Likely R- change from Leans R
LA- Leans R
ME- Safe R
MA- Safe D
MI- Likely D- change from Leans D
MN- Leans D
MS- Likely R
MT- Safe R
NE- Safe R
NH- Tossup (D)
NJ- Safe D
NM- (accidentally left off my 10/14 post)- Likely D- change from Safe D
NC- Tossup (R)
OK A- Safe R
OK B- Safe R
OR- Likely D
RI- Safe D
SC A- Likely R
SC B- Safe R
SD- Likely R
TN- Safe R
TX- Safe R
VA- Leans D- change from Likely D
WV- Likely R
WY- Safe R

12 D (6 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)
24 R (11 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup)

Overall Predicted Total: 54 R, 46 D


Wow, nine seats sounds like a lot. I have asked myself if I am being too much of a partisan on this, and while it is certainly possible that I will overestimate the GOP pickups by 1 or 2, this is how I see them. In fact, I think I have been quite cautious in leaving a lot of races as a Tossup where the Republican appears ahead.

Traditionally, all the Tossup Senate races wound up being one by the same party, with maybe one exception. We saw that in 2006, the last second Presidential midterm, when Democrats won everything that was close, with the exception of an open seat in Tennessee. This year, Jeanne Shaheen could be the one Democrat that might hold on, but I certainly would not be surprised to see her go down as well and Republicans to win 10 seats. That race was not even supposed to be close.

There are some interesting oddities of this election. Who would have thought, for example, that Republicans would feel better on Election Eve about winning the seat that Tom Harkin is vacating in Iowa than the seat that Pat Roberts is defending in Kansas. Who could have possibly imagined that Republicans might net more seats among 36 U.S. Senate races than among 435 U.S.House races. I wonder if the NRSC and NRCC have a contest going on that.

Democrats hold on to hope that they have a ground game and turnout operation that nobody will see coming. We Republicans were hoping for that as well in 2006. The bottom line is that it would take a miracle for Republicans to not win control of the Senate when the last vote is counted in the last race.

However, that may not happen until early January. There will almost certainly be a December runoff in Louisiana and for weeks now, the conventional wisdom was that Georgia will hold a runoff (possibly for Governor as well) on January 6. We will see if that really comes to pass, but by the end of this week, we will probably know who has won the races in every other state but those two. Republicans may already have a majority. If not, at least before Louisiana, that races gets nationalized to the max, it would be very bad news for the Democrat incumbent. A GOP majority is near-certainty. However, I doubt anyone will go to bed on Wednesday morning with it having been formally confirmed.

U.S. House:

I am just making one change from what I posted yesterday and I definitely hope this is one of the ones I get wrong:


2. Lee Terry R (Romney 53%)- Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)

189 D (137 Safe, 33 Likely, 11 Leans, 8 Tossup)
246 R (171 Safe, 52 Likely, 11 Leans, 12 Tossup)


All things considered, Republicans are poised to make some impressive pickups. They had already won so many Democrat held districts in 2010 and held most of them thru 2012. There really is not that much left to gain, but the GOP is almost guaranteed to add to their majority, even before two likely December runoffs in conservative Louisiana districts.  It seems very possible that the number of Republicans in the U.S. House will be greater than at any time since after the 1946 election.

That means that even if Democrats somehow have a massive year at other levels in 2016 (which is far from a certainty to say the least), the margin of the Republican House majority is likely going to be high enough to keep them running that Chamber for at least the next four years.


Past Gubernatorial, Senate, and House results:

2006: 482-22 (96%)
2008: 462-19 (96%)
2010: 482-27 (95%)
2012: 452-27 (94%)

This has been a fun election to write about over the past 100 days, but I am glad it is over. I am ready to see the results start coming in, knowing that I will be very pleased with some of them and quite unhappy with others. On the balance though, as a citizen of all the United States, I am expecting a very good night.

When everything is determined officially, even if it takes until January, I will post how I did with my predictions, and I am sure that sometime before this week is over, I will have a few thoughts on what we saw.

As always, no matter what happens, I am proud to be an American and proud to be a Republican. Two years ago this week was tough, but I knew the GOP Elephant would come roaring back, and it looks like we are seeing that in action this year. Of course, the greater victory remains down the road.


Post a Comment

<< Home