Democracy 2024: # 1

The first Saturday of the year before the next Presidential election once again marks the point where I will begin weekly posts on my personal views of matters related to national politics as we get closer and closer to the election of a President in a little under two years.

In doing these posts, I will try my best to offer straight-forward political analysis of major developments, but I recognize that most of these posts will consist of me venting about how I view the political scene. Based on the past two cycles, I have dreaded having to sit down and type out my stream of consciousness, but recognize that it feels a bit therapeutic to do so.

I start with a premise. Based on matters of ideological agenda, competence, and leadership, America deserves a new President who will perform better and perhaps work to unite America more effectively than Joe Biden. However, from my perspective, that President cannot and must not be Donald Trump. I will probably be displeased politically with the eventual winner. Unlike what turned out to be the case in 2020, I think it is highly unlikely that I will wind up casting a vote for that eventual winner. I will view 2024 as a victory though if Trump is not elected. In that regard, democracy is on the line. I think I will be satisfied to that end.

This was a wild week on Capitol Hill. I followed most of it with a great deal of amusement and at times amazement. Tonight though, I watched large portions of a CNN documentary about January 6, 2021. There was not really anything presented that I was not aware of but it still had the effect of making me pretty angry all over again over the events of two years ago yesterday. I had a lot of jokes about the week that I was thinking about typing here, but this documentary does not really have me in a joking mood. Maybe I should not have watched it, but the message behind it was important.

 

Two years ago, the House Chamber saw a delayed late night official certification that lasted into the early hours of January 7th which saw Joe Biden and Kamala Harris officially win the Presidency and Vice Presidency. This year, in the early morning hours of January 7th, Congressman Kevin McCarthy of California officially became Speaker of the House, insider of that chamber after 15 rounds of voting. Past epic boxing title matches often went 15 rounds, but the last time a vote for House Speaker went more than one was 100 years ago. The top House Democrat, Congressman Hakeem Jeffries of New York "won" most of the rounds, but based on the narrow Republican majority won last November, McCarthy was ultimately able to clinch the title he has yearned for perhaps his entire adult life.

At what cost though? To what end? Right now, based on deals he seemingly cut in order to get enough of his intra-party critics to vote "President", he is heading into office as the weakest Speaker in modern times. Usually, the Rules Package is adopted shortly after Congress is sworn in, but the chaos of this week, made that impossible. So, the 118th Congress will take that up on Monday, and there is no guarantee it will pass. What remains of "mainstream" Republicans in the House may take umbrage upon learning of the deals that were cut with hardline "rebels" including apparently massive defense cuts, and could join Democrats in rejecting the package. This could lead to the whole framework of McCarthy's deal falling apart and a fairly quick end to his Speakership because it will take the calling of just one Republican Member to force a vote on "vacating the Chair." McCarthy will probably survive, at least in the very short-term, but battles over raising the debt ceiling a few months from now could lead to another major tipping point. He should probably fear the name "Liz Truss."

Honestly compels me to point out that I am disappointed that McCarthy won the fight to be Speaker. At times, it looked like it was just not going to happen for him and he could face the ultimate political humiliation. I suppose he deserves some credit for tenacity and not giving up, but again, he just gave up pieces of himself to achieve a title. This is nothing new when it comes to McCarthy. I probably agree with him on most policy matters, but he seems to be a pretty weasel like figure. The one time mainstream Republican, like many others in the party, went out of his way to ingratiate himself to Donald Trump. Then, the attempted Insurrection happened, and based on recordings of phone conversations and things McCarthy himself said on the House Floor as Minority Leader, he clearly knew Trump bore much of the responsibility and that he knew it was time to be "done" with the soon to be ex-President. Something happened though pretty quickly and before too long McCarthy was down at Mar-A-Lago, smiling for photos with Trump. He went right back into his embrace and the two helped each other politically, all in the sake of power. The midterms of 2022 did not turn out nearly as well as Republicans expected, but the party won enough, barely, to take the House. Their majority should have been much bigger, but was not because of Trump and Trumpism.

McCarthy needed Trump to become Speaker still though. There was much talk throughout this week about how Trump may not have been all in on helping McCarthy win over the MAGA acolytes who seem to despise him. Late last night though, on the final vote, Trump apparently was able to convince the final holdouts to cast a vote of Present thus letting McCarthy become Speaker. For most of the past two years, McCarthy and his Conference, with the exception of now former Members Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, have done anything possible to shrug off the events of 1/6/21. Anything that led to to truth of Trump's complicity and share of the responsibility could trigger the ultimate political loose cannon to turn on the Republican Party and cost them their jobs in government today or perhaps their figure financial opportunities outside of office in the future. It all continues to be pretty disgraceful.

As for the Democrats, they can be acknowledged for staying in line and delivering a unanimous vote for Jeffries (an impressive master of political alliteration) through all 15 rounds. To start with, nothing less should have been expected from them. However, they did miss their chance to at least deny McCarthy the gavel and to anger the MAGA world at the same time. This would have been good for the country in terms of the operation of the House, and still good for their party politically, headed into 2024, but they chose a different path.

At the time when it looked bleak for McCarthy, there would have been an opportunity to have their Members support a moderate Republican for Speaker. A name that had been mentioned throughout the week was that of recently retired Republican Congressman Fred Upton of Michigan. He is someone who was highly respected across the aisle during many years on Capitol Hill, and also someone who voted to impeach Trump after January 6th. He seemed open to the possibility. Choosing someone like him, especially from outside the House itself, would have been pretty extraordinary, but extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. Jeffries or another Democrat was simply not going to win the job, and thus they should have taken the best deal possible. Just this past week, legislatures in Ohio and Pennsylvania did similar maneuvers to basically choose a Speaker who would preside as an "Independent."

 
House Democrats and their allies though decided they would be content to much on the proverbial popcorn and watch the GOP drama boil over throughout the week, with C-SPAN cameras rolling. Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert are now more famous than ever, (though some on the right think they are traitors now too.) As mentioned, the Republican chaos is far from over and indeed there may be more Speaker votes before the next election. However, this is all still not good for Congress or the country. Democrats though will be able to rail against it and raise money over it. That is unfortunately what politics is all about these days.

Soon, attention will turn to the Presidential election. Based on a better than expected midterm showing, the 80 year Biden, who continues to have middling poll numbers, seems poised to announce for reelection. Not a single major Democrat is likely to oppose him, although I think a minor character or two might. If he were to not run or to drop out at any point, a slew of Democrats would quickly jump in, regardless of whatever the incumbent Vice President might decide herself.

As of today, Trump is the one announced Republican contender. To sum up his campaign in one word thus far, it has been "sad." He has done virtually nothing since a widely panned announcement speech but hawk "action figure" NFT trading cars in which the proceeds do not even go to his campaign but to his own pocket. Announcing his candidacy so early seems to be nothing less than a ploy to be able to cry foul if and when he is indicted by the federal government or that in any of the states. 

The talk continues as to if recently reelected Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has emerged as the new MAGA savior. Trump sure seems to hope not and is likely to go nuclear on his former ally if they are in the race together. I think a bunch of other Republicans will be running, including perhaps former Vice President Mike Pence, regardless of Trump or DeSantis. I want a genuine conservative Republican to be President. All options are better than Trump, but to say the least I very much dislike what DeSantis has come to stand for in today's political environment. I will be supporting the most "Never Trump" or at least "Never Again Trump" candidate who jumps in, regardless of if the effort appears quixotic or not. Perhaps that will be Liz Cheney. Perhaps Larry Hogan. Perhaps someone else. At the same time, I hope a parallel effort occurs for an acceptable candidate to run in the general election as an Independent because there may not be any other option.

There is a long road to the White House between now and next November. As the cliche goes, it will be filled with many twists and turns. Hopefully, for America, a good outcome will result. As Speaker McCarthy has been saying a lot recently, "it's not how you start but how you finish."

I hope that finish includes the current occupant of the Oval Office riding peacefully into retirement and his immediate predecessor languishing behind bars, which is precisely what he deserves.