2022 Elections Predictions Review: U.S. House

I just noticed that in the previous two editions, I titled these 2020 instead of 2022. I guess these years of political dysfunction are rolling together. In just a couple of weeks, I will begin doing a weekly posting on the 2024 Presidential election.

As for 2022, there was not much doubt that Republicans would win control of the U.S. House. Almost everyone expected them to do so by a wider margin. I was more cautious in my predictions of pick-ups than most and in a bit, I will itemize each race where I was incorrect. I think my record compares favorably with anyone anywhere who actually predicted all 435 contests.

Why did Republicans fare more poorly than expected? Clearly, Donald Trump and his influence was a major factor. Those who supported the impeachment of Trump were in some cases defeated in Republican primaries, and this definitely cost the GOP a seat near Grand Rapids, Michigan. Like the case for some Senate and Gubernatorial races, some bad candidates emerged from the primaries, often with Trump's endorsement, and they were then defeated by Democrats in what should have been winnable races.

Democrats believe that abortion worked to their advantage and they are probably right. As someone who has always been staunchly Pro-Life, I was very pleased that Roe vs. Wade was overturned. Whatever one thinks about the morality of abortion, there were serious Constitutional problems with the 1973 ruling, as even some on the left admitted. So after 50 years of fighting, Pro-Lifers won a big victory. If there were to be short-term political fallout after that, so be it. Some things should be considered more important than merely winning or losing. The issue of abortion was sent back to the states, but many on the right greatly complicated the Pro-Life effort by their zeal in being absolutes on the issue in order to "own the left." Instead, the debate about what elected representatives could determine to be reasonable exceptions to legalized abortion became about outlawing all abortion, even in cases of rape, and even distractions about making contraception somehow illegal. While I can certainly understand the desire to protect the innocent unborn victims of rape, not having such an exception is never going to be considered mainstream and stubbornly insisting upon it will only work politically and in the realm of persuasion against the Pro-Life movement.

Shortly before the election, the elderly husband of Speaker Nancy Pelosi was violently attacked inside his San Francisco home. Before long, the facts emerged that the attacker was a crazed support of Donald Trump who targeted Nancy Pelosi politically with violence. Luckily for her, she was not home, but unluckily for Paul Pelosi, since her Capitol Hill Police detail were also not immediately present. Obviously, this deranged individual does not represent all Trump supporters and his past and current politics may have many deviations from what is considered standard conservative fare. Trump himself changed all that.

The bottom line is that in the desire to isolate themselves and Trumpism from anything potentially damaging to their narrative, MAGA nation bent over backwards to excuse this attack or make up ridiculous and spurious conspiracy theories about Mr. Pelosi and his assailant. This kind of awful behavior probably had at least some affect on the election turnout. Maybe some Democrats who were not going to vote decided to vote just because Republicans had become such horrible jerks. Maybe the punishment on the party in November was just karma to some extent also. 

 

There are some races where I turned out to be correct, but wish I had been wrong, such as narrowly missing out on Lauren Boebert being upset in Colorado. 

Finally, I would be remiss in pointing out that in a district in Oregon, which I wound up predicting correctly, the longtime Democrat incumbent (officially backed by Joe Biden) lost a primary to a candidate considered further to the left, and that race wound up going to Republicans. So, with the final margin being so narrow, both parties can look back with some regret in regards to some specific districts.

Now, here is a rundown on which races I predicted incorrectly.

1. California 13

Prediction had been: Adam Gray D vs. John Duarte R (Biden 54%)- Tossup (D)

This was the final House race called, seemingly a month after the election after much see-sawing in the count. The Republican Duarte won this open seat by a few hundred votes. California is a heavily Democrat state, but this race was likely decided by local issues, such as water rights.

2. Colorado 8

Prediction had been: Yadera Caraveo D vs. Barb Kirkmeyer R (Biden 51%)- Tossup (R)

 In this newly created district, the Democrat Caraveo wound up prevailing 48-48. Republicans had problematic candidates on the statewide ballot, and while they had a decent U.S. Senate candidate, Trump was openly opposed to him. All that added up to a disappointing showing for Republicans in Colorado.

3. Connecticut 5

Prediction had been: Jahana Hayes D vs. George Logan R (Biden 55%)- Tossup (R)

I took a big gamble here predicting a win for a Republican challenger against a Democrat incumbent in a race featuring two African-American nominees. I figured that in any sort of "wave election" there would be upsets like that, even in districts that Biden had taken easily. George Logan might have been a strong candidate, as he lost by less than a point, but clearly, there was no "Red Wave."

4. Illinois 17

Prediction had been: Eric Sorensen D vs. Esther Joy King R (Biden 53%)- Tossup (R)

This was another one that was sort of a gamble, but I went with a Republican upset, especially after some past statements by the Democrat nominee in regards to defunding the police had been unearthed.

The Republican Party is in a state of shambles here in Illinois, their nominee was seen as too far to the right, and Sorensen won this traditionally Democrat seat by about four points to become the first openly gay person elected to Congress from Illinois.

5. Nevada 3

Prediction had been: Susie Lee D vs. April Becker R (Biden 52%)- Tossup (R)

House polls in Nevada turned out to be a bit too friendly towards Republicans and the Democrat incumbent held her seat by about four points. Democrat turnout, at least for the federal races, still did what it had been known to do for many cycles before. This was the only Nevada House race I called incorrectly. Most were expecting up to three Republican pickups.

6. New Mexico 2

Prediction had been: 2. Gabe Vasquez D vs. Yvette Herrell R (Biden 52%)- Tossup (R)

Here is another Biden district, where the Democrat managed to win, but in this instance, a Republican freshman incumbent was unseated. This district had been changed by state Democrats, to make it more friendly to them, and were able to pull that off as the staunchly conservative Herrell very narrowly lost

7. New York 3

Prediction had been: Robert Zimmerman D vs. George Santos R (Biden 54%)- Leans D

In my view, this was the biggest upset of the House cycle and in recent days, the contest that has been all over the media. This had already made history of being the first major political general election in American history to feature two gay nominees. In winning, George Santos became the first openly gay Republican ever to capture a seat in Congress as a non-incumbent. I had called this race Leans Democrat, but Santos actually won by eight points. So, I was way off here on Long Island.

Who exactly is George Santos though? There are major questions and the Congressman-elect has said he will address various allegations this upcoming week about what appear to be clear fabrications in his biography. Democrats, knowing how close the margin is overall in the House are putting on a full-court press trying to get Santos to somehow not be sworn in on January 3. I think that is unlikely to happen, and if the roles were reversed, both parties would be doing the opposite of what they are doing now. Santos is almost certainly going to officially become a Congressman, but may have political problems beyond that.

The Republican portrayed himself as the openly gay son of Brazilian immigrants, who also had a Jewish background. Besides all the issues surrounding Santos' business and financial backgrounds, he also may have been lying about his parents and the Jewish thing. Where was Zimmerman and New York Democrats on this matter? This was Santos' second run for the seat in as many cycles. They are saying that the weak showing by the Democrat Governor (in victory) and the overall crime issue in suburban New York prevented them from somehow being able to expose Santos.

Also. Santos was apparently legally married to a woman very soon before launching this campaign, in which he said he is married to a man. So, he may be the first conservative to be outed by leftists for secretly being straight. Immigrant, Jewish, gay, it may say something about our current politics, if at least in this district, a Republican might have lied about these things to help win an election. Fascinating stuff. I can see a documentary or maybe a feature film perhaps in the future.

8. New York 17

Prediction had been: Sean Patrick Maloney D vs. Mike Lawler R (Biden 55%)- Tossup (D)

This turned out to basically be a 50-50 race, but here I am most happy to have been wrong about a Democrat not winning.

Maloney had been chair of the DCCC, which makes his defeat pretty remarkable from a political standpoint. He had spent months and months raising the money and traveling the country on behalf of other Democrats, and for the most part, he had a great cycle in exceeding expectations. He forgot about the people at home though and lost his own seat (and now George Santos will be the most controversial gay Congressman from New York... maybe.)

Maloney has always been seen as somewhat weasally. He had angered many in his own party by his redistricting plan for New York, which he was not able to get implemented, and while Democrats did very well nationwide in the 2022 House races, again, at least according to conventional wisdom, New York was a big exception for Republicans making gains. This has to have been a pretty bitter pill to swallow for Maloney. The new Republican Congressman, Mike Lawler, has been willing to suggest., at least to some extent,  that the GOP move on from Donald Trump.

9. New York 19

Prediction had been: Josh Riley D vs. Marc Molinaro R (Biden 51%)- Tossup (D)

The Republican Molinaro wound up winning this open seat by two points as New York was the rare place were Republican House candidates exceeded some expectations in 2022. This victory for Molinaro comes four years after he was easily defeated as the GOP nominee for Governor of New York, and a few months after he had lost in an upset, a special Congressional election in a neighboring district by a Democrat who will now be his colleague.

10. North Carolina 13

Prediction had been: Wiley Nickel D vs. Bo Hines R (Biden 50%)- Tossup (R)

 In this open seat, Democrat Wiley Nickel won by four points in an impressive showing over a Donald Trump backed Republican, who had won a primary over other candidates who likely would have been victorious in November.

At just 27 years old, Hines had little political experience, before being endorsed by Trump, and did not have much in the way of local ties to this district. I thought the national trend would be enough for voters to narrowly elect him, MAGA tendencies and all, but instead, he was rejected and Nickel should probably be considered someone to watch in Tar Heel State politics.

11. Ohio 13

Prediction had been: Emilia Sykes D vs. Madison Gesiotto Gilbert R (Biden 51%)- Tossup (R)

In terms of my House predictions, here is a second state where district number 13 was unlucky for me. I was pretty surprised to see an African-American Democrat win by six points, easily outpacing Biden's margin, in Ohio, which was considered a very pro-Trump state. (I was correct in Ohio's first district in predicting a longtime Republican incumbent would be defeated.) The Republican nominee was a white woman married to an African-American man. While outgoing Congressman Tim Ryan was unable to win an open Senate seat, his showing may have helped Democrats hold on to this district.

The victorious Democrat is 36 years old while Gilbert was only 30. As is the case in the North Carolina district discussed above, she had little political experience, beyond someone who had been a telegenic defender of Donald Trump. The former beauty pageant winner, married to an ex-NFL player, (two things Trump likes) had narrowly won a Republican primary for this House seat, with the former President's endorsement.

12. Pennsylvania 7

Prediction had been: Susan Wild D vs. Lisa Scheller R (Biden 50%)- Tossup (R)

For the second straight cycle, Wild beat Scheller, this time by just two points, about half the margin of the first contest. Districts like this were ones Republicans needed to win to have had any sort of a "wave." The party continued to demonstrate weakness in the suburbs though and the Pennsylvania Republican nominees for Governor and U.S. Senate probably did not help at all in this tight battle.

13. Rhode Island 2

Prediction had been: Seth Magaziner D vs. Allan Fung R (Biden 56%)- Tossup (R)

I had looked at some polls and went out with a limb on this one and a bit disappointed to have been wrong. Fung, who had twice lost competitive races for Governor, was considered a mainstream Republican. I thought that there were signs that in this cycle, he could defeat a Democrat considered an elitist in this open district. Rhode Island is about as Democrat as it gets though, an Independent took three percent here, and Magaziner won by a little less than four points overall.

14. Washington 3

Prediction had been: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D vs. Joe Kent R (Trump 51%)- Leans R

This is one of just two non-Tossup incorrect predictions and I am very glad to have gotten this one wrong. Republican dysfunction and the influence of Trump are clearly responsible for causing a district he won going blue by a narrow margin.

Congresswoman Jamie Herrera-Beutler once considered a rising star in the GOP was defeated for a spot on the November ballot simply because she had voted to impeach Donald Trump after the events of January 6, 2021. The Republican who took her place was Joe Kent, an ardent MAGA acolyte who had received Trump's endorsement as he targeted Republicans like the incumbent for defeat.

Kent, despite his military biography, wound up being a controversial figure with ties to white supremacists. Good riddance to him and congratulations to Ms. Glusenkamp Perez, a 34 year old owner of an auto-repair shop, and like Herrera-Buetler, of Mexican-American ancestry. If the outgoing Congresswoman attempts to win her seat back in 2024, hopefully Republicans in that district will have returned to their senses.

15. Washington 8

Prediction had been: Kim Schrier D vs. Matt Larkin R (Biden 52%)- Tossup (R)

In the end, the Democrat incumbent won by six points, and outperformed Biden. Larkin may have been considered a viable Republican, but his party, as mentioned, has a ton of problems in affluent, white-collar suburbs and Schrier was able to effectively tie him to extremists.

I have to say, I am quite impressed to have only gotten 15 wrong, in a cycle that included new district lines across the country and the overall narrative of a midterm not holding. All but two of my incorrect positions came in races I had predicted to be Tossups and many of those were very close. I incorrectly predicted 10 Republican wins and five Democrat wins. I am glad my mistakes were at least a bit dispersed.

2022 U.S. House Results: 420-15 (97%)

Past results:

2006: 416-19 (96%)
2008: 418-17 (96%)
2010: 414-21 (95%)
2012: 415-20 (95%)
2014: 426-9 (98%)

2016: 429-6 (99%)

2018: 419-15 (97%)

2020: 415-20 (95%)

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Cumulative Result History:

2006: 482-22 (96%)
2008: 462-19 (96%)
2010: 482-27 (95%)
2012: 452-27 (94%)
2014: 494-13 (97%)
2016: 469-12 (98%) 

2018: 487-18 (96%)  

2020: 459-22 (95%) 

 

2022: 487-19 (96%)