2022 Election Predictions Review: Governors

Later on this month, when I formally review the results for the Senate and House, I will offer some more commentary on the somewhat surprising results of the 2022 midterms and what happened nationally.

As has been said online (and thus I cannot take credit), the "Red Wave" turned out just to be some light spotting.

I will begin though here with a recap of the Gubernatorial elections. The plan is to post on the Senate results on 12/17 (Georgia runoff will occur this Tuesday and I am not changing my previous prediction) and the House results on 12/24. All of those races have now formally been called, although one recently reelected Congressman sadly passed away recently, so there will be one vacancy in January. It is also an interesting question as to whom will actually get to take the oath as Speaker of the House. I am hoping for some democratic (small d) shenanigans on the House floor.

 

Final predictions were:

Alabama- Safe Republican

Alaska-  Leans Republican (Leans Dunleavy)

Arizona- Tossup (R)

Arkansas- Likely Republican

California- Safe Democrat

Colorado- Likely Democrat

Connecticut-Likely Democrat

Florida- Likely Republican

Georgia- Leans Republican

Hawai'i- Likely Democrat

Idaho- Safe Republican

Illinois- Likely Democrat

Iowa- Safe Republican

Kansas- Tossup (D)

Maine- Leans Democrat

Maryland- Safe Democrat

Massachusetts- Safe Democrat

Michigan- Leans Democrat

Minnesota- Likely Democrat

Nebraska- Likely Republican

Nevada- Tossup (R)

New Hampshire- Likely Republican

New Mexico- Leans Democrat

New York- Leans Democrat

Ohio- Safe Republican

Oklahoma- Leans Republican

Oregon- Tossup (R)

Pennsylvania- Likely Democrat

Rhode Island- Likely Democrat

South Carolina- Likely Republican

South Dakota- Likely Republican

Tennessee- Safe Republican

Texas- Leans Republican

Vermont- Likely Republican

Wisconsin- Tossup (D)

Wyoming- Safe Republican

The first things that stand out are just how much of a blowout Florida turned out to be, despite a very controversial incumbent running in what was recently thought of as the ultimate swing-state. It is pretty clear that Florida is becoming to Republicans what California became to Democrats.

 

In spite of all the discontent that voters say they have with current politicians, only one incumbent Governor was defeated this cycle (primary or general) and unless an upset happens in Georgia this Tuesday, the same can be said for all of the U.S. Senators who sought reelection. Incumbency in statewide races is definitely a benefit.

 

The one exception was Nevada, the state which saw its economy hit the hardest by Covid, and thus saw the incumbent Democrat lose narrowly to a Republican challenger, as I predicted. There was a story that Donald Trump was ready to publicly pull his endorsement from Joe Lombardo because the GOP candidate had refused to say that Trump was a "great President" during a debate. The perpetually sore-assed loser of the 2020 Presidential election was persauaded not to do so. Had he spoke out against Lombardo, the Democrat almost certainly would have won that race.

 

 Now, what did I get wrong this cycle?

 

There was Arizona, where I am extremely happy to be wrong. In a very close race, Kari Lake did not win in a Tossup as I predicted, but lost and of course is claiming fraud and deceit and watching Trump demand she be "installed" as Governor. When I first wrote about this race, I called it Leans Democrat. I could not imagine someone as nutty (and I thought she was maybe putting on an elaborate act) such as Lake could win, but the Democrat, Katie Hobbs, ran a weak campaign, and refused to debate. I cited that as my main reason for thinking Hobbs would lose. I said the Democrat was demonstrating political cowardice. Perhaps she was, but nonetheless, she won the race, so who am I to argue with success at this point?

I will point out that this race is one where Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney crossed party lines to express a preference to see Democrats defeat Republican election deniers. Cheney's endorsement record this cycle, where she got involved, turned out to be extremely good.

 

The only other Gubernatorial race I got wrong was in Oregon, where I also predicted a Republican would win a Tossup. Instead, Democrat Tina Kotek won with 47 percent of the vote over Republican Christine Drazan. In making my final prediction, I said this was the one I was most likely to be wrong on, and I was.

 

The main factor is that a centrist longtime Democrat was running as an Independent and appeared poised to be a spoiler. At one point in the race, Betsy Johnson was backed by some very rich people, but her campaign lost serious steam in the final weeks. Instead of taking a Perotesque 1992 share of the vote, which would have certainly swayed the election to the Republican, she won just about 9 percent, 

a la the 1996 Perot sequel campaign. Thus, the Democrat won another close one for Oregon Governor, as they seem to always do.

Despite these incorrect Republican predictions, I was correct on Kansas and Wisconsin, in contrast to current Republican cheerleaders. Many of them even thought the party could win Michigan, New Mexico, or New York (if not all three), but I maintained those were "Leans Democrat."

 

It was not a good showing Republicans to actually suffer a net loss of two Governorships. The most Trump-like Republicans did far worse than those who managed to carve out their own identity, which was a theme nationwide.

2022 Gubernatorial Results: 34-2 (94%)

Past results:

2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 9-2 (82%)
2014: 32-4 (89%)
2016: 9-3 (75%) 

2018: 35-1 (97%) 

2020: 11-0 (100%)