Race for the White House # 96

3 Days Until Election Day

We have finally arrived at the final edition of this blog feature for the 2020 cycle. Like most Americans, I will be glad when this campaign is over, but what we will really know a week from now? I think it is doubtful that either major party nominee will have conceded, even though the result may be clear. We can expect battles in Courts perhaps, but hopefully not in the streets. As has always been the case, we need to find a way to come together as Americans, but it may be harder to do so than ever.

There is really not much left to stay. The polls show that one candidate looks like a solid favorite, but supporters of the other candidate do not seem to believe that. They go even further in believing that their candidate is the solid favorite. Either way, there are going to be a lot of surprised people when the results come in. The concern though is that they may come in slower than ever because of all the mail in voting during this pandemic year. I received an email today that my ballot was received. I guess there is no turning back now.

 

Both candidates are on the trail today, though one has more people on hand to cheer and potentially catch and spread a deadly disease than the other. The GOP nominee has been all over Pennsylvania while his Democrat opponent, joined today by his former boss Barack Obama, has been in Michigan. If somebody wins both of those states, they are very likely to win.

 

Tensions are high as partisans pour over poll numbers, look at online election betting markets, and fret about turnout and momentum. Of course, momentum may be less relevant this year than any other with so many Americans having already voted. Who has more "shy" voters, Trump or Biden? Which party exceeded expectations in the early vote? These questions will largely be academic soon enough. Do all the early votes tend to get counted last though? Will the "Election Day" results point to Trump leads in key states, and him declaring himself the winner, only to have it be taken away later in the week when more of the votes come in? That is very likely, but the media is going to be cautious about making any declarations and Trump supporters will be going beserk because of it.

Frankly, neither candidate is acting or sounding supremely confident on the trail today. We all remember how conventional wisdom did not hold up last cycle and Trump beat the heavily favored Hillary Clinton. I just think there are a lot of other factors at play now that make the result look more solid. Trump seems petrified though, listening to his rhetoric in recent days saying that Biden will literally destroy America. He is claiming that a Biden Presidency will outlaw heat in the winter and air conditioning in the summer. One of his surrogates went on a rant recently about all the holidays and celebrations that will not be allowed to take place under Biden. It was basically a plagiarism of Stevie Wonder's "I Just Called To Say I Love You." Time will tell if in 2021 there will be no April rain, no flowers bloom, no weddings Saturday within the month of June. Nonetheless, November is hours away and this election is coming. The winner will either be Donald John Trump Sr, the 45th President of the United States, or Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., the 47th Vice President of the United States.

So, of course predictions are in order. If I feel the need to change any of these "calls" I will do so tomorrow or perhaps even Monday.

 

 

As I open up a blank electoral map and fill in the colors, we will start with the entities I am declaring "Safe"

 

DC- Biden

AL- Trump

CA- Biden

CT- Biden

DE- Biden

HI- Biden

ID- Trump

IL- Biden

KY- Trump

LA- Trump

ME 1- Biden

MD- Biden

MA- Biden

MS- Trump

NE- Trump

NE 3- Trump

NJ- Biden

NY- Biden

ND- Trump

OK- Trump

RI- Biden

SD- Trump

TN- Trump

VT- Biden

WA- Biden

WV- Trump

WY- Trump

At this point, Biden leads 176-76, with of course 270 needed to win

Next, the "Likely"

CO- Biden

IN- Trump

ME- Biden

MT- Trump

NE 1- Trump

NH- Biden

NM- Biden

OR- Biden

SC- Trump

UT- Trump

VA- Biden

Now, Biden is ahead in my prediction 216-106

Moving on to "Leans"

AK- Trump

KS- Trump

MI- Biden

MN- Biden

MO- Trump

NV- Biden

WI- Biden

This brings us to 258 for Biden to 125 for Trump 

The path is narrowing. Somebody is going to pretty much need everything else to fall perfectly into place

Tossups-

AZ- Biden

FL- Biden

GA- Biden

IA- Trump

ME 2- Biden

NE 2- Biden

NC- Biden

OH- Trump

PA- Biden

TX- Trump

If I am wrong on that final one, we will have seen an electoral bloodbath and the Republican Party will be shaken to its core. Frankly, as a once proud Republican, that might be what is needed.

Prediction:  

Joe Biden & Kamala Harris: 351

Donald Trump & Mike Pence 187

 

On a Saturday four years ago, I predicted a Trump loss 347-191 (but begrudgingly gave him Iowa two days later.) Clearly, I was wrong then, as were most people, although perhaps I was somewhat more wrong than others, and I have been mocked by Trump supporters online for that. I said after the election that I could accept being wrong, but would never relent from knowing that DJT was the worst possible person to be President.

 

Now, to my slight surprise, I have Trump losing by even more. Maybe I will be wrong again. If so, I will own it. I seem to have a bit of a margin to be wrong though. Four years ago, I probably let my emotions get in the way. This time, I think I have been as objective as possible. It would be very easy to look a the polls and give Biden Texas for example, and I am not doing so. Also, four years ago, I barely watched any news about the election the last few weeks. I legitimately wanted to avoid it and needless to say I was really into the run and aftermath of the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series. So, I am more informed this time.

As always, the American people will have their say and somehow we will have to move on. The winner will have a big job ahead of them and like I said last week, "danger" is a possibility during these perilous times. 

One of the candidates though has already proven how they would perform as President and this entire election will be a referendum on that. Nothing is written in stone. Polls and pundits and predictions are one thing, but here, the people have the final say. The indication is that the American people are about to make a statement to Donald Trump.

"You're Fired."