U.S. House Race Updates- Part 2

 4 Days Until Election Day

Continuing where I left off yesterday...

Montana

 

1. Open (Greg Gianforte R) (Trump 56%) Tossup (R) -change from Tossup (D)

New Hampshire

 

1. Chris Pappas D (Trump 48%) Tossup (D)- change from Leans D

 

New Jersey

 

 2.  Jeff Van Drew R (Trump 50%) Tossup (D)- change from Leans D 

 3.  Andy Kim D (Trump 51%) Leans D- change from Tossup (D)

Texas

2. Dan Crenshaw R (Trump 52%) Lean R- change from Likely R

Utah 

4. 4. Ben McAdams D (Trump 39%) Leans D- change from Tossup (D)

Current total: 233 D, 202 R

 

 

 

Predicted: 

 

242 D  (163 Safe, 36 Likely, 26 Leans, 17 Tossup)

193 R  (116 Safe, 42 Likely, 19 Leans, 16 Tossup)

Democrat net gain of 9

I seem to think I have a larger number of Tossups than truly exist, but there are a lot of races that as cliche as it sounds will come down to turnout and coattails. My hunch is that the Democrat pickups are likely to go into the double digits, but this is how I have it, race by race.

 

A lot of these are just gut instincts, but I have done really well, even better than I thought I would, the last few cycles. 

Past U.S. House Results:  

 

2006: 416-19 (96%)
2008: 418-17 (96%)
2010: 414-21 (95%)
2012: 415-20 (95%)
2014: 426-9 (98%)

2016: 429-6 (99%)

2018: 419-15 (97%)