Saturday, April 13, 2019

Race for the White House 2020 # 15

I am not really sure what to write about this week. There were no "major developments" in the campaign as far as I can recall and am not sure there is a worthy theme to cover. I did not really follow politics too much this week. Perhaps, I spent too much time watching and analyzing American Idol.

The campaigns continue to kick themselves into gear though, whether in a high-profile way or not. Fundraising must be done. Staffing decisions must be made. Calendars must be put together. At present, Democrats are very interested in organizing in the earliest voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, but those who intend to be around until the end are building up their infrastructures elsewhere too. As for Democrats, the main waiting point continues to be when Joe Biden will give his official word as to his decision. If he is running, expect a quick rollout of high-profile "establishment" endorsements. If for some reason he is a no, other potential candidates, such as ex-Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe may act fast.

Disapointed folks like me aside, most in the Republican Party are resigned to renominating Donald Trump for better or worse. To many in the party, who have zero to little enthusiasm for the President, all that matters is defeating Democrats and ensuring such things as the continued ability to name new Supreme Court Justices. These people tend to comfort themselves by imagining the Democrat primaries will turn out to be a circus and that the eventual nominee will be highly wounded and beholden to the far left. Whatever these Republicans think of Donald Trump in their private moments, they also know he is very good at setting political narratives and putting opponents on the defensive.

Now that I think about it, this past week did feature an election in Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, survived a fierce battle for his job, even admit claims of personal corruption and impending charges against him. He is now in line to become the longest serving Prime Minister of Israel and Donald Trump and his fans in the U.S., whether Jewish or Gentile, are quite happy that he won the election. In order to do so though, Netanyahu and his Likud Party had to reach across to build alliances with some far-right ultra-religious parties in Israel.

In fact, the left "left" and the traditionally representative of the left Labor Party were virtually an afterthought in this election. Instead the main coalition opposing Netanyahu was led by Benny Gantz, a former top military official. There was little in the way separating the two leaders on issues like national security, which allowed many anti-Netanyahu voters the peace of mind to vote for the Blue and White Party. That coalition came close, but not close enough. Still, it is worth nothing that the situation would basically be akin to what would happen if in this country, Democrats were to basically concede competing for the Presidency and instead throw their blessing and support behind a "centrist" anti-Trump coalition led by a disaffected Republican such as a John Kasich or a Larry Hogan. Assuming that the left-wing base of Democrats in the U.S. would ever go along with such a bold concept (which is hard to imagine), the reelection of Trump would virtually be impossible.

We now know that this maneuver in Israel fell short, under their parliamentary system. What will happen in the United States next year? Democrats will tell you almost to a person that they will eventually find a candidate of their liking who can eventually defeat Donald Trump . Are they correct?


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