U.S. House Predictions-Part VI
30 Days Until Election Day
Illinois
1. Bobby Rush D vs. Don Peloquin R (Obama 81%)- Safe D
2. Jesse Jackson Jr. D vs. Brian Woodworth R (Obama 81%)- Likely D
3. Dan Lipinski D vs. Richard Grabowski R (Obama 58%)- Safe D
4. Luis Guitierrez D vs. Hector Concepcion R (Obama 80%)- Safe D
5. Mike Quigley D vs. Dan Schmitt R (Obama 70%)- Safe D
6. Leslie Coolidge D vs. Peter Roskam R (Obama 51%)- Likely R
7. Danny Davis D vs. Rita Zak R (Obama 89%)- Safe D
8. Tammy Duckworth D vs. Joe Walsh R (Obama 62%)- Leans D
9. Jan Schakowsky D vs. Tim Wolfe R (Obama 69%)- Likely D
10. Brad Schneider D vs. Robert Dold R (Obama 63%)- Tossup (R)
11. Bill Foster D vs. Judy Biggert R (Obama 61%)- Tossup (R)
12. Bill Enyart D vs. Jason Plummer R (Obama 55%)- Tossup (R)
13. David Gill D vs. Rodney Davis R (Obama 55%)- Leans R
14. Dennis Anderson D vs. Randy Hultgren R (Obama 51%)- Safe R
15. Angela Michael D vs. John Shimkus R (McCain 55%)- Safe R
16. Wanda Rohl D vs. Adam Kinzinger R (Obama 50%)- Safe R
17. Cheri Bustos D vs. Bobby Schilling R (Obama 60%)- Tossup (R)
18. Steve Waterworth D vs. Aaron Schock R (McCain 54%)- Safe R
IL current: 8 D, 11 R
IL predicted: 8 D, 10 R
Current total: 69 D, 78 R
Predicted:
72 D (45 Safe, 14 Likely, 11 Leans, 2 Tossup)
78 R (45 Safe, 16 Likely, 8 Leans, 9 Tossup)
posted by Corey @ Sunday, October 07, 2012
4 comments
4 Comments:
You are in IL so you know more than me. What am I missing with IL 10? That is a CD that is extremely D now. Are there other factors in play?
Thanks for the comment.
I used to live in IL 10 before redistricting and I was active in the Dold campaign two years ago. (I am now in CD 8 and am strongly supporting Joe Walsh, who is clearly an underdog, based on the district, but is working far harder than his opponent and could surprise some people, at least to some extent.)
Anyways, CD 10 has always been Democrat leaning and has been made more after the Democrat imposed redistricting (very frustrating for us in the IL GOP, as less than 200 votes being different in the 2010 Gubernatorial primary would have all but assured a Republican Governor and none of this would be happening.)
My hunch is that Bob Dold will win, as he is a strong candidate with significant resources and organization to win under difficult circumstances. He will obviously need the support of many voters who are not Republican, as he did in 2010, but I think he is the mind of thoughtful independent that can keep this seat, just as John Porter and Mark Kirk have for many years.
His opponent has some vulnerabilities on overstating his business background and is finding it hard to demonstrate he would be able to be anything other than a rubber stamp for the Democrat leadership.
Ok, thanks. This is now one of my focus races to watch next month for the House. I have it turning but could be wrong. A 63% Obama CD is tough to overcome. Did any R do that in 10 anywhere? I honestly don't know.
I am pretty sure Dold winning the district when it was a district that went 61% for Obama was the toughest won the GOP won in 2010 and he did it by more than 2 points.
This time around Dold is an incumbent, so that could help, but more significantly, it is worth keeping in mind that the 2008 margins Obama was running up in the Chicago suburbs, as an Illinois Senator running for President, were inflated.
Obama will easily win Illinois and will win this Congressional district, but I do not think he will be winning it by anything close to 63% this time.
There was supposedly a poll out last week showing that both Dold and Obama are ahead in IL 10 by 47-45. Not sure I buy that it is that close on the Presidential level, but the House result sounds believable.
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