Race for the White House- 9/20/08

45 Days Until Election Day

The first debate, which should be expected to receive huge ratings, despite being on a Friday evening, is now in less than a week and will likely have a significant impact on the horserace, at least in the short-term.

Looking at the past week though, it clearly appears to have been a much better one for Democrat Barack Obama than the previous two, as he has made up several points in all of the daily national tracking polls, although some show a virtual tie, while others now show a slight Obama lead. Polls out of the key battleground states continue to be a mixed bag, exciting and disappointing partisans of both tickets. This race remains very close, just as it was before either party held their convention.

The success of Obama over the past week is almost entirely due to the news of economic turmoil which received much coverage and sent the stock market on a wild rollar coaster ride. Bad economic news in a time when Republicans hold the White House is clearly something that Obama wants to see happen and it has certainly helped in the polls, at least for the short term. The candidates battled over the economy for much of the week with much uproar early on it for John McCain's assertion that the "fundamentals" of the U.S. economy remain strong. While that might be very accurate from an economic standpoint, it probably was the wrong language to use politically. As the week progressed, McCain went more on the offensive against Obama, using ads to tie him to individuals who helped create the catastrophe at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. With the Administration pledging a bail out program for troubled institutions and companies, and the stock market rallying at the end of the week, it remains to be seen if Obama can continue to ride this wave of economic anxiety all the way until the election.

For the first time since her selection, there was also much less attention paid to Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin, which might also help explain a stronger week for Democrats in public opinion surveys. Clearly, the more the focus is on the economy, the more fertile the turf is for Obama, while Republicans would rather play the game on more national security/foreign policy/social issues/cultural values issues.

Unlike the other side, nobody on this ticket has ever disrespected the the team itself or the fans of the 2008 National League Central Division Champions:

http://www.johnmccain.com/